jbcmh81 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Wow! This would indicate a winter on par like last winter...cold and snow wise. Kind of flies in the face of all the conventional wisdom. Best post of the day! Thanks. Not to say that we cannot possibly switch to a blowtorch January, just that history argues against it. And there has also not been a winter like this that had both January AND February warm. It was either one or the other, or none at all. This doesn't say anything about snowfall, though. La Ninas tend to be decent for us, but there are no guarantees. In the 4 winters mentioned, 3 had above normal, and one had a little below normal snowfall. And 1903-04 and 1962-63 are both top 5 coldest winters on record. But as with anything weather related, there is always going to be a first time. So while it may be unlikely, it can still happen that we torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Channel 4's Marshall Mcpeak mentioned one scenario for Columbus for Wed/Thur would be rain!!?? I thought we were too far north to even worry about it. That being said, did the models jump a bit north with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 0z gfs and nam are both no go's for Thursday. And as we know from last storm the 20th storm is up in the air although the consensus seems to be pretty much a miss for us. Guess we will know soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 0z gfs and nam are both no go's for Thursday. And as we know from last storm the 20th storm is up in the air although the consensus seems to be pretty much a miss for us. Guess we will know soon enough. 06 nam came north...brings .25 line up to i-71. 06 gfs backed off a little on precip amounts overall. 12z will hopefully find a concensus with a bit of a more northward extensiion of precip. Tomorrow could be one of those days for us folks north of i-71 when you dont want to be looking at radar. Could see that sharp cutoff and moderate snow falling just south of us west to east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 btw, a new threat is showing up for us to watch. Not sure if it's a classified clipper but its a low coming out of the west and tracking thru the lower OV....this would be for monday-ish time frame. I saw it on the ggem very bullish last night and now the gfs has it. Looks like a nice swath of snow thru a good part of the area n. of the ohio river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 btw, a new threat is showing up for us to watch. Not sure if it's a classified clipper but its a low coming out of the west and tracking thru the lower OV....this would be for monday-ish time frame. I saw it on the ggem very bullish last night and now the gfs has it. Looks like a nice swath of snow thru a good part of the area n. of the ohio river. Just saw that too. That would solidify our white christmas. I just hope run-to-model run it stays there and doesn't disappear! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 btw, a new threat is showing up for us to watch. Not sure if it's a classified clipper but its a low coming out of the west and tracking thru the lower OV....this would be for monday-ish time frame. I saw it on the ggem very bullish last night and now the gfs has it. Looks like a nice swath of snow thru a good part of the area n. of the ohio river. I have my fingers crossed for this, considering tonight and tomorrow may be a non event for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Up to 44.5" for the month at YNG, the previous snowiest on record was 36.4" in January 1999. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 12z nam just see-saws right back to a wiff for the i-71 north crowd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Up to 44.5" for the month at YNG, the previous snowiest on record was 36.4" in January 1999. most of that is lake effect....i bet so far, purely synoptic, cincy (or somewhere near cincy), will be the synoptic snow jackpot of the state up to christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CincyChris Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 most of that is lake effect....i bet so far, purely synoptic, cincy (or somewhere near cincy), will be the synoptic snow jackpot of the state up to christmas. Hope you guys get in on this one. Just got bumped up to a WSW here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 GFS had the low move from central Arkansas up through far southeastern KY before reforming near the coast. That's not usually a bad track for us further north along 70, but it has a very sharp cutoff like most of the other models. However, I'm looking at the pressure maps again this morning and you can see the low in the Oklahoma panhandle, but the lowest pressure drops so far are further north, in eastern Kansas. I could see the low actually moving more along the northern Arkansas/southern Missouri state line, which would ultimately make the low a bit further north by the time it pulls east. NAM looks fairly similar although it seems weaker with the low and maybe even further south. Again, watching the pressure maps, the low already seems to be turning east headed for central Oklahoma. NAM has it getting down into northern Texas. It would basically have to drop almost due south to be in the NAM's position, and I don't see that happening. I can't believe I'm saying it, but NW trend FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 most of that is lake effect....i bet so far, purely synoptic, cincy (or somewhere near cincy), will be the synoptic snow jackpot of the state up to christmas. See my sig, this winter has been virtually all lake effect this season. Will be nice to get our first synoptic snows eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Looks like another good storm we miss out on here in central Ohio. NWS calling for 5-8 inches for their warning areas and 3-5 for iln's wsw areas. Sickening for us here in Central. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 NWS in INDY* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Zones are out. Here are the forecast totals by city: Columbus: 1-2" Dayton: 2-4" Cincy: 3-5" So they obviously have things further north than some were thinking. Just looking at radar, returns are more west to east instead of north to south, and are approaching Indianapolis now. They look to be moving east from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Zones are out. Here are the forecast totals by city: Columbus: 1-2" Dayton: 2-4" Cincy: 3-5" So they obviously have things further north than some were thinking. Just looking at radar, returns are more west to east instead of north to south, and are approaching Indianapolis now. They look to be moving east from there. 1" to 2" would be alright by me....but you know how these clippers (is this a clipper???) love central OH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Zones are out. Here are the forecast totals by city: Columbus: 1-2" Dayton: 2-4" Cincy: 3-5" So they obviously have things further north than some were thinking. Just looking at radar, returns are more west to east instead of north to south, and are approaching Indianapolis now. They look to be moving east from there. I kinda thought the same thing. The radar seems to appear like it would be well north of the models, basicall coming through central IN due east through cental OH. Thats what the radar looks like anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 I kinda thought the same thing. The radar seems to appear like it would be well north of the models, basicall coming through central IN due east through cental OH. Thats what the radar looks like anyways Thats what i'm seeinmg Dilly!! Let's hope it's just not the wenine in us both..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I kinda thought the same thing. The radar seems to appear like it would be well north of the models, basicall coming through central IN due east through cental OH. Thats what the radar looks like anyways Well, it seems the expectation is that precip comes east and as it runs into dry air it kinda peters out by the time it gets to 70 north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 well the 18z gfs doesnt show an apps runner but does show a nice swath of snow coming down on the 21st. Looks like rogers storm is coming in from the wrong direction. EDIT: Correction it kinda dies when it reaches OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Well, it seems the expectation is that precip comes east and as it runs into dry air it kinda peters out by the time it gets to 70 north. But you would think that if it was going to peter out..our southern folks would not have warnings out,,because the cold air is covering the state...Why do i do this to myself? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 But you would think that if it was going to peter out..our southern folks would not have warnings out,,because the cold air is covering the state...Why do i do this to myself? Well, if it's any consolation, Ganahl said the latest model run is painting the snow further north...dunno which model he is talking about. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 But you would think that if it was going to peter out..our southern folks would not have warnings out,,because the cold air is covering the state...Why do i do this to myself? Dryer air up here. It reaches 70 it just dries up is what they are saying. the air down in cincinnati isnt as dry therefore they can get snow. Sickening that Cinci has seen more snow than central ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Ok..cinncinati has a dew point of 11..we here in newark have a dew point of 9..not much difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Thats what i'm seeinmg Dilly!! Let's hope it's just not the wenine in us both..lol what's a wenine? lol j/k here's my good vibe for the day, check out the last frame of this loop...looks like the vortex and dryair start getting beat back http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_us_loop-12.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Ok..cinncinati has a dew point of 11..we here in newark have a dew point of 9..not much difference. Ohio Dewpoints http://www.usairnet....hio/dew-points/ Indiana(notice the difference in where the snow is supposed to fall and where it meets the dry air) http://www.usairnet....ana/dew-points/ Finally Illinois (again notice the difference) http://www.usairnet....ois/dew-points/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 what's a wenine? lol j/k here's my good vibe for the day, check out the last frame of this loop...looks like the vortex and dryair start getting beat back http://weather.unisy...us_loop-12.html I saw flurries earlier....so the dew points can't be all that low. Hope this is a good omen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Vespian, as I posted in the private thread Buckeye made for the past storm, if you look at the radar and hr 6 on the Nam, its pretty much dead on. So it isn't looking good. I had snow showers earlier as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I saw flurries earlier....so the dew points can't be all that low. Hope this is a good omen. It is, actually. Temps and dewpoints, at least in central Ohio, are pretty close to each other, so it should not actually take that long for snow to start... provided it gets here. And I do think it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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