Ohio And Great Lakes Including (PA,KY,WVA,IN)!

[jbcmh81]

Where is the central OH crew??

We got a nice bit of snow last night...4" or so here in Newark and possibly more on the way mid week??

We had a private thread throughout the storm. We couldn't get any analysis from anyone in the main storm thread since it was almost 100% north of I-80 bias, and even this thread turned almost exclusively into about LES for NEOH.

I did pretty well on the west side of Columbus, around 4" as well.

[wxdudemike]

About 5 inches here which is very impressive given the storm tracked through northern Ohio

[jbcmh81]

Should we discuss the 15/16th storm here?

[pondo1000]

not looking like much now on the models, right?

Should we discuss the 15/16th storm here?

[jbcmh81]

not looking like much now on the models, right?

It looks decent on the NAM, GGEM, and Euro. The GFS is flat and further south.

[WestMichigan]

About 5 inches here which is very impressive given the storm tracked through northern Ohio

I am jealous of you guys down there. I looked back to where I lived in Hilliard and saw 4+ inches. We were supposed to get 12" or so and there is maybe 1/2" - 1" on the ground.

[BuckeyeSam]

It looks decent on the NAM, GGEM, and Euro. The GFS is flat and further south.

The nam gives us 3+ inches. Pretty far out for the nam though.

[dilly84]

Be happy you guys got 4 or 5 inches. I only mustered maybe 3.5 and because of it blowing around can now see the grass again lol

[jbcmh81]

Temps already peaked and are beginning to fall already. It's possible we go lower than forecast tonight. Maybe 0-5 above.

The top 3 coldest low temps for December 13th in Columbus are:

-7 in 1960

-5 in 1962

1 in 1958

And for the 14th:

-1 in 1898

0 in 1914

4 in 1963

Might be close if we can get the winds to die down a little bit.

[jbcmh81]

Looks like ILN is thinking 1-2" for far northern counties, 2-3" in between, and less down south along the river where they think there will be a mix. This is for Wednesday Night into Thursday.

[vespasian70]

Looks like ILN is thinking 1-2" for far northern counties, 2-3" in between, and less down south along the river where they think there will be a mix. This is for Wednesday Night into Thursday.

So the 2"-3" would be for Franklin county? Not bad after the nice bit of snow we got.

[jbcmh81]

So the 2"-3" would be for Franklin county? Not bad after the nice bit of snow we got.

Yeah if I read that right. Franklin County has the highest pops vs areas further south and north. Won't be any melting going on anytime soon, that's for sure.

[jbcmh81]

BTW, the temps in central Ohio are already nearing forecast lows. What's preventing them from continuing to drop? Just the winds? So far that hasn't held them from falling steadily, and with clear skies, I think we easily hit mid-single digits.

[vespasian70]

Yeah if I read that right. Franklin County has the highest pops vs areas further south and north. Won't be any melting going on anytime soon, that's for sure.

Interesting that the NWS is predicting near normal temps in the 8-14 day outlook! I too thought we would be below normal at least through xmas. Maybe it is some sort of mistake?

[OHSnow]

Visibility down to 1/4 mile at KYNG under the Huron firehose. Wouldn't surprise me to see some SNICR showing up in some of the obs there this evening.

SPECI KYNG 140108Z 31012G21KT 1/4SM SN BLSN BKN002 OVC008 M09/M11 A2969 RMK AO2 P0001

[OHSnow]

Visibility down to 1/4 mile at KYNG under the Huron firehose. Wouldn't surprise me to see some SNICR showing up in some of the obs there this evening.

SPECI KYNG 140108Z 31012G21KT 1/4SM SN BLSN BKN002 OVC008 M09/M11 A2969 RMK AO2 P0001

There it is... and the band looks to be going nowhere soon.

METAR KYNG 140151Z 31015G23KT 1/4SM +SN BLSN SCT002 OVC008 M09/M11 A2970 RMK AO2 SLP077 SNINCR 1/7 P0005 T10941111

[ArmyGreens]

BTW, the temps in central Ohio are already nearing forecast lows. What's preventing them from continuing to drop? Just the winds? So far that hasn't held them from falling steadily, and with clear skies, I think we easily hit mid-single digits.

Went from 8 to 6 here in the last hour! We were supposed to have a low of 7. Oops!

[buckeye]

that damn roger smith...

he's got me all tingl'n again (referring to the Dec 20th threat that the I-95ers are living and dying over with every model run)

I realize the models are not showing much of that today, but we are talking about a week from now and the way these models have been handling the past two weeks, a lot could happen unexpectedly. So I think the most plausible track for the storm given the current evolution and uncertainty might be south of what I said earlier but not that much so, possibly LA-TN-PA-NY. Is that what you call an Apps runner rather than a lake cutter?

[Chicago WX]

that damn roger smith...

he's got me all tingl'n again (referring to the Dec 20th threat that the I-95ers are living and dying over with every model run)

I realize the models are not showing much of that today, but we are talking about a week from now and the way these models have been handling the past two weeks, a lot could happen unexpectedly. So I think the most plausible track for the storm given the current evolution and uncertainty might be south of what I said earlier but not that much so, possibly LA-TN-PA-NY. Is that what you call an Apps runner rather than a lake cutter?

He's got one hell of a east trend going. From his first post in that thread:

This storm could be expected to form around OK-KS late 18th and start moving northeast on the 19th, reaching Wisconsin on the 20th and central to northeast ON by the 21st. A track somewhat further south is still in play, and could run AR-IN-wNY. Whatever track this storm takes, there would likely be a heavy snowfall of 12-18 inches to the north, bands of freezing rain and rain along and just to the south of the track, and a brief but major warming spike in the warm sector ahead of the low

[buckeye]

He's got one hell of a east trend going. From his first post in that thread:

This storm could be expected to form around OK-KS late 18th and start moving northeast on the 19th, reaching Wisconsin on the 20th and central to northeast ON by the 21st. A track somewhat further south is still in play, and could run AR-IN-wNY. Whatever track this storm takes, there would likely be a heavy snowfall of 12-18 inches to the north, bands of freezing rain and rain along and just to the south of the track, and a brief but major warming spike in the warm sector ahead of the low

yea i saw that too when he originally posted. He was all about a western lake cutter...

...oops

[vespasian70]

Looks like game still on for the Weds/Thurs snow for central OH.

I'd be happy with the 1"-3" ILN has mentioned for us.

[jbcmh81]

Looks like game still on for the Weds/Thurs snow for central OH.

I'd be happy with the 1"-3" ILN has mentioned for us.

Yeah, GFS came back a little better, and the GGEM was decent. Haven't seen anything else yet.

[NEOH]

that damn roger smith...

he's got me all tingl'n again (referring to the Dec 20th threat that the I-95ers are living and dying over with every model run)

I realize the models are not showing much of that today, but we are talking about a week from now and the way these models have been handling the past two weeks, a lot could happen unexpectedly. So I think the most plausible track for the storm given the current evolution and uncertainty might be south of what I said earlier but not that much so, possibly LA-TN-PA-NY. Is that what you call an Apps runner rather than a lake cutter?

lol... his threads always pull me in for some reason. Perhaps it his "non-traditional" approach to forecasting. Well, he's gotta be right one of these times. Lets hope this is it.

[buckeye]

Yeah, GFS came back a little better, and the GGEM was decent. Haven't seen anything else yet.

nam has come back a little north as well.....still pretty light

[OHSnow]

December 2010 is now the snowiest month on record at YNG with 36.9 inches (another 3-6 inches has fallen since yesterday though so it's probably over 40" now). The previous record was 36.4 inches in January 1999.

[OHSnow]

December 2010 is now the snowiest month on record at YNG with 36.9 inches (another 3-6 inches has fallen since yesterday though so it's probably over 40" now). The previous record was 36.4 inches in January 1999.

Here's a report from last night from the local TV station... I don't know if I believe that report of 7" in about an hour.

http://www.wkbn.com/...CS4uVL1ixg.cspx

All the schools back home were closed, even though most places had less than 2" as of this morning. Heavy lake effect snow had developed this morning and is still ongoing, which is what must have prompted the closures. Here is a Tower Cam showing very low visibilities.

http://www.wfmj.com/...nk.asp?L=423078

[OHSnow]

December 2010 is now the snowiest month on record at YNG with 36.9 inches (another 3-6 inches has fallen since yesterday though so it's probably over 40" now). The previous record was 36.4 inches in January 1999.

Here's a report from last night from the local TV station... I don't know if I believe that report of 7" in about an hour.

http://www.wkbn.com/content/news/local/story/Storm-Buries-Some-Spares-Others/MNOgWS2Qs0qYCS4uVL1ixg.cspx

All the schools back home were closed, even though most places had less than 2" as of this morning. Heavy lake effect snow had developed this morning and is still ongoing. Here is the Tower Cam showing very low visibilities.

http://www.wfmj.com/global/link.asp?L=423078

[OHweather]

CLE has put out a map for the December 5th-9th snow event:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/cle/wx_events/2010/December/LES1.php

Widespread 1'+ totals

[jbcmh81]

Just something interesting I thought I would pass along. A lot of the forecasts for this winter have December as the coldest month, with a switch to warm come January. I looked at every La Nina since 1900 for the Columbus area and looked at the mean temps for the DJF period. I wanted to know how often this kind of switch takes place.

There were 28 total Ninas since 1900. Of those, only 4 of those winters had December as the coldest month. 14 of them had January as the coldest month, and the other 10 had February as the coldest month. In the 4 winters where December was the coldest month, 2 of them had either January or February which also featured below normal means. Now if we look at just those winters that had a significantly below normal December, such as this one will probably be (at least 5 degrees below normal), we still end up with only 4 winters. Of those, 2 of them still had even colder Januarys, and in fact, those two also had very cold February's as well. Those four analgo winters which seem to have at least a similar December were 1903-04, 1950-51, 1962-63, and 2000-01. If we took the DJF means from those 4 years, we get the following:

December: 24.0

January: 25.4

February: 28.1

DJF Mean: 25.8

Out of the 12 months in those 4 winters, only two months were actually above normal: January 1951 and February 2001, and only February 2001 had a mean more than 2 degrees above normal.

So in conclusion, no La Nina winter that has had a very cold December like we are facing now has EVER ended up having an above normal winter mean. The warmest of the bunch was still 2.2 degrees below normal.

[vespasian70]

Just something interesting I thought I would pass along. A lot of the forecasts for this winter have December as the coldest month, with a switch to warm come January. I looked at every La Nina since 1900 for the Columbus area and looked at the mean temps for the DJF period. I wanted to know how often this kind of switch takes place.

There were 28 total Ninas since 1900. Of those, only 4 of those winters had December as the coldest month. 14 of them had January as the coldest month, and the other 10 had February as the coldest month. In the 4 winters where December was the coldest month, 2 of them had either January or February which also featured below normal means. Now if we look at just those winters that had a significantly below normal December, such as this one will probably be (at least 5 degrees below normal), we still end up with only 4 winters. Of those, 2 of them still had even colder Januarys, and in fact, those two also had very cold February's as well. Those four analgo winters which seem to have at least a similar December were 1903-04, 1950-51, 1962-63, and 2000-01. If we took the DJF means from those 4 years, we get the following:

December: 24.0

January: 25.4

February: 28.1

DJF Mean: 25.8

Out of the 12 months in those 4 winters, only two months were actually above normal: January 1951 and February 2001, and only February 2001 had a mean more than 2 degrees above normal.

So in conclusion, no La Nina winter that has had a very cold December like we are facing now has EVER ended up having an above normal winter mean. The warmest of the bunch was still 2.2 degrees below normal.

Wow! This would indicate a winter on par like last winter...cold and snow wise. Kind of flies in the face of all the conventional wisdom.

Best post of the day!