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Ohio And Great Lakes Including (PA,KY,WVA,IN)!

Steve

By Steve,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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OHSnow

OHSnow

Posted
Posted

So no matter where the low ends up going, it looks very cold afterward and it doesn't seem to be going anywhere anytime soon. I'm really thinking now that we may end up with a December as cold as 2000 or perhaps even colder if some of the models are right.

Here are the coldest Decembers in Columbus since 1948:

1.1989: 19.3

2. 1963: 21.6

3. 1958: 23.4

3. 2000: 23.4

4. 1950: 24.8

4. 1976: 24.8

4. 1983: 24.8

5. 1962: 24.9

6. 1960: 25.1

7. 1985: 26.0

8. 1969: 26.8

9. 1995: 28.7

10. 1977: 29.5

Through 12/8/2010, we were at 27.4. We look to drop significantly from there. If the 12z GFS was right, we'd have a mean through 12/24 of 18.4!

Another positive stat is that most of those winters were historic. The only ones that weren't were 1985-86 and 1989-90 (after December). Both 1989-90 and 1985-86 were neutral ENSO.

Good stats. Here are the snowiest Decembers on record for Youngstown.

1. 29.5 1987

2. 26.6 2010

3. 23.3 2007

4. 23.0 1963

5. 22.4 1962

6. 21.9 1944

7. 21.6 1968

8. 21.6 1945

9. 21.2 1969

10. 20.7 2004

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NEOH

NEOH

Posted
Posted

CLE is still calling for a mostly snow event in the Northern part of the forecast area. Will be interesting to see what todays model runs bring.

A STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO TAKE SOME DIFFERENT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GFS HAS APPARENTLY BEEN SOMEWHAT MORE CONSISTENT WHILE THE EUROPEAN DEVELOPS AN ELONGATED LOW WITH THE CENTER REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. GFS TAKES THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON SUNDAY. EVEN THOUGH BOTH MODELS HAVE DIFFERING TRACK SOLUTIONS...THEY DO AGREE IN BRINGING SOME WARM AIR NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WARM AIR TAKES THE 1300 1000 TO 850 MB THICKNESS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THERE MAY BE SOME MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. SINCE THERE IS NO CONSENSUS IN HOW DEEP AND HOW EXTENSIVE THE WARM

AIR WILL BE...I WILL GO WITH THE CHANCE FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND SNOW ELSEWHERE FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

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NEOH

NEOH

Posted
Posted

it's not really a chat, just a pm message that goes to a group (most of the central OH crew). It's just an outlet to vent some IMBYisms without pissing off the rest of the regional posters. :scooter:

Let me know next time you guys do the private chat. Noticed alot of back patting in the storm thread about knowing the storm would cut NW. Still alot of time to go with this one. Obviously things don't look great for OH but anything can happen.

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jbcmh81

jbcmh81

Posted
Posted

Let me know next time you guys do the private chat. Noticed alot of back patting in the storm thread about knowing the storm would cut NW. Still alot of time to go with this one. Obviously things don't look great for OH but anything can happen.

While I don't think most of us in the state see significant snows, I think all of us see at least a few inches, more north and perhaps east if the southern low ala Euro start really forming. The models are still surprisingly clueless, but if anything, they seem to be evolving into a two low scenario where the northern low cuts way north and gives many people rain to snow... and a southern low that ends up riding along or to either side of the Apps. If it keeps evolving this way, perhaps our chances are not so dark... but for now, still another couple of days to watch it. That's as positive as I can be right now.

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

While I don't think most of us in the state see significant snows, I think all of us see at least a few inches, more north and perhaps east if the southern low ala Euro start really forming. The models are still surprisingly clueless, but if anything, they seem to be evolving into a two low scenario where the northern low cuts way north and gives many people rain to snow... and a southern low that ends up riding along or to either side of the Apps. If it keeps evolving this way, perhaps our chances are not so dark... but for now, still another couple of days to watch it. That's as positive as I can be right now.

ironically this could be a scenario where the screw zone is IL and IN as the first storm goes north of them and the second, east

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jbcmh81

jbcmh81

Posted
Posted

ironically this could be a scenario where the screw zone is IL and IN as the first storm goes north of them and the second, east

Possible, if the northern low cuts enough, MN could end up with the snow there as the southern low comes up. Would be pretty awesome and and crazy result for such a badly modeled storm.

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NEOH

NEOH

Posted
Posted

Game over for OH? Yeah, probably. We'll see what the 12z runs show. The most important thing is the track of the low and impact on the lake effect next week. Just how far north the storm moves will have an impact on the wind direction. Right now, it doesn't look the winds will come around enough for a lake huron connection in the NE part of the state. Central OH may get in the action from Lake MI. The only inhibiting factor will be the wind speed. Band organization will be difficult if the winds are as strong as forecast.

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NEOH

NEOH

Posted
Posted

Watch up for Northern OH. Surprised they pulled the trigger so early. This is for the backside of the storm obviously.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH

337 PM EST FRI DEC 10 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM VERY COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE ON GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE

WILL BEGIN BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED ACROSS AN AREA NORTH OF A LINE FROM OBERLIN TO MEDINA TO AROUND YOUNGSTOWN. AFTER THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGINS MONDAY MORNING IT WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS ALL OF THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE A FOOT OR MORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE USUAL HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHEAST OHIO INTO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA COULD SEE 2 OR MORE FEET OF SNOWFALL. THE STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND

DRIFTING OF THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 5O MPH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO ASSIST IN KEEPING WIND CHILLS IN A RANGE FROM ZERO TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO THROUGH TUESDAY.

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NEOH

NEOH

Posted
Posted

Well, we now know what side of the cold/warm fence CLE is on. A low over WNY is a classic set-up for heavy lake enhanced snow.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --LONG TERM BEGINS ON MONDAY WITH MODELS IN -UNFORTUNATELY- GOOD AGREEMENT. ECMWF AND GFS SHOW UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE ERIE/WESTERN NY WITH DEEP COLD NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES INTO THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS DIFFER A BIT BETWEEN MODELS BUT GENERALLY NUMBERS RANGE FROM -16 TO -18C WEST TO -09 TO -13C EAST

OVER THE LAKE. MUCH LIKE THE LAST EXTENDED LAKE EFFECT EVENT...EXPECT THAT SNOW OCCUR IN A MULTIBAND SETUP WITH A MORE INTENSE LAKE HURON BAND. EXACT LOCATION OBVIOUSLY SOME TIME OFF BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGH POPS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND

SQUALLS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE USING FORECAST LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW AS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH POP/SQUALL PLACEMENT. TO BE BRIEF...THIS WILL OCCUR THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE PRIMARY SNOW BELT OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WHERE SNOW WILL LIKELY BE MEASURED IN FEET BY MID/LATE

WEEK. SECONDARY LAKE EFFECT AREAS OF LORAIN/MEDINA/SUMMIT COUNTIES EAST THROUGH TRUMBULL COUNTIES SHOULD RECEIVE LESS...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS.

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carumba

carumba

Posted
Posted

Watch up for Northern OH. Surprised they pulled the trigger so early. This is for the backside of the storm obviously.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH

337 PM EST FRI DEC 10 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM VERY COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE ON GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE

WILL BEGIN BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED ACROSS AN AREA NORTH OF A LINE FROM OBERLIN TO MEDINA TO AROUND YOUNGSTOWN. AFTER THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGINS MONDAY MORNING IT WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS ALL OF THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE A FOOT OR MORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE USUAL HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHEAST OHIO INTO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA COULD SEE 2 OR MORE FEET OF SNOWFALL. THE STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND

DRIFTING OF THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 5O MPH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO ASSIST IN KEEPING WIND CHILLS IN A RANGE FROM ZERO TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO THROUGH TUESDAY.

They got burned after Wednesday's snow, they're not getting caught pants down again.

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NEOH

NEOH

Posted
Posted

Every time the Browns play the Bills there seems to be some type of harsh weather... Sunday's game in Buffalo shouldn't disappoint.

This reminds of the December 16th 2007 storm that hit CLE during the game. Excerpt from the storm summary...

"At Cleveland-Hopkins International Airport, the NFL's Buffalo Bills airplane got stuck on a runway because of accumulating snow due to a Lake Erie snowsquall after their game against the Cleveland Browns so the team was forced to return to Buffalo by bus"

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NEOH

NEOH

Posted
Posted

temps are close though ... could be slop

http://www.meteor.ia...mm/nam_kcle.dat

I figured the watch was up for the wrap around snows and lake effect. I actually had no idea temps were that close to RN/SN. This is going to be an interesting storm to follow that's for sure. Gotta feeling this storm might move directly over CLE, or perhaps MFD.

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Dustin

Dustin

Posted
Posted

Anyone noticed the overunning setup next Thursday? GFS and Euro both painting a solid .25 to .4" of freezing rain. :thumbsdown:

Just noticed that on the 18z GFS run. Should be plenty of cold air in place at the surface. This could really catch people off guard after all the hype from this weekend's system.

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