Hoosier Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 well if it makes you guys feel any better... ...we're in Henry M.'s red circle of "where the Big Daddy will hit" on accuwx Whose bullseye would you rather be in - Henry or JB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Whose bullseye would you rather be in - Henry or JB? i'd prefer to be north of JB's and simply outside of henry's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 well if it makes you guys feel any better... ...we're in Henry M.'s red circle of "where the Big Daddy will hit" on accuwx Damn! Gotta buy umbrellas now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Got some heavy snow out there now! I'm likin this lake effect stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 i'd prefer to be north of JB's and simply outside of henry's. Yea, but ya gotta admit, even being spoken of for us this early in the season is pretty exciting. Ive been reading Henry's blog for about 6 years now, and I've seen him be dead on a few times, but most of the time he is wrong. Maybe this will be one of those times he is right. Probably not, but still something to get excited about tracking! Ain't that right Steve-o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuckeyeSam Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Looks like the gfs moved back south a bit, but cut back on the qpf. Course it's the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Yea, but ya gotta admit, even being spoken of for us this early in the season is pretty exciting. Ive been reading Henry's blog for about 6 years now, and I've seen him be dead on a few times, but most of the time he is wrong. Maybe this will be one of those times he is right. Probably not, but still something to get excited about tracking! Ain't that right Steve-o That's right dilly. This storm has a lot of potential. Given the model verification stats... its hard to lean toward one model solution or another. Obviously a more southern solution would be best for OH. Hard to believe any model has the right solution this far out. It's just nice to have a storm to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 well if it makes you guys feel any better... ...we're in Henry M.'s red circle of "where the Big Daddy will hit" on accuwx Buckeye - What does JB have to say about this storm? N or S? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Buckeye - What does JB have to say about this storm? N or S? he put out a map, but without exactly quoting him, he's basically saying that the details are being sorted out on the exact path of the storm, and that areas from Missouri to Western NY will have the greatest threat of a major snowstorm, and that it has the potential to produce 6"+ over a large area of the Northeast states and eastern Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Huge flakes were fallin in Marion today for about an 30 min. Was not expecting snow to fall at that rate, especially lake effect from L. Michigan. It made me want this snow storm even more! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Huge flakes were fallin in Marion today for about an 30 min. Was not expecting snow to fall at that rate, especially lake effect from L. Michigan. It made me want this snow storm even more! lol Ill tell ya what would help... Change that Michigan State Pic to a Buckeyes Pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Ill tell ya what would help... Change that Michigan State Pic to a Buckeyes Pic Alas, I was born in Lansing and have been a Spartan fan since! It was nice to be able to root for the buckeyes every game this year though. Maybe wearing my white game shirt will persuade the snow to show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Alas, I was born in Lansing and have been a Spartan fan since! It was nice to be able to root for the buckeyes every game this year though. Maybe wearing my white game shirt will persuade the snow to show? Fair enough lol. MSU better than M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Still getting snow showers from lake michigan! Amazing! Looks like another dusting on my driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 John Kocet on accuwx, also has us in the greatest threat for a powerful snowstorm this weekend. http://www.accuweath...orm-lead-to.asp this is actually a decent write up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 One concern is that the 0z GFS...which may have come north a tad but is still a bit right of most guidance...still shows the 850mb low tracking right over central/western OH, and since there is generally at least some sort of mixing along and west of that 850mb low track, this would imply a good threat for at least some mixing for Cincinnati and Columbus with Dayton and Cleveland also getting close verbatim this run... The lake effect potential looks interesting this run, as it has on the past few GFS/ECM runs... The winds are again strong so inland areas would be favored, but inversions appear high with some synoptic moisture to work with, along with colder 850mb temps than this last event. Definitely something to watch. With the GFS/ECM appearing to bring the flow around more NNW behind the system for a time, the Huron enhancement may affect Ohio more than this past event as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 text soundings for cmh indicate .7 total.... .2 rain and .5 snow also some brutal cold temps late next week....highs in the low single digits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 text soundings for cmh indicate .7 total.... .2 rain and .5 snow also some brutal cold temps late next week....highs in the low single digits It was nice to see the euro come south last night. let's hope it holds. Not sure what will prevent the WTOD from sneaking into OH though. Great to see the euro on board with more southern solution though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 It was nice to see the euro come south last night. let's hope it holds. Not sure what will prevent the WTOD from sneaking into OH though. Great to see the euro on board with more southern solution though. the 6z gfs is interesting.... it looks like it's trying to transfer a low to the apps as opposed to keeping the ohio low more dominant as in the previous runs. Makes me wonder if we are going to see more southeast shifting...towards the ukie OR, more likely it's just the 6zgfs being the 6zgfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Man, this is going to be a nail bitter...normally everything seems to go against this type of system for central OH, Dec 2004 comes to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 From CLE LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STARTING TO FAVOR THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF A STORM MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. ECMWF HAD BEEN FAVORING A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WITH GFS FURTHER SOUTH. BOTH OF THESE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST OHIO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN TRACKING THROUGH WEST CENTRAL PA IN THE AFTERNOON. GFS IS STILL LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH BUT THEY ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THEY WERE PREVIOUSLY. THE GFSENS HAS THE TRACK STILL FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE OPERATION GFS. THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WILL FAVOR SNOW OVER MIXED PRECIP. CHANGED SUNDAY`S FORECAST TO SHOW JUST MIXED PRECIP OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...RAIN/SNOW FOR NOW. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING A HEAVY SNOWFALL. THEN COLD AIR MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE LOW BY LATE SUNDAY...AND WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR LOOKS POISED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION MON INTO TUE. HIGHS BY TUE MAY NOT EVEN RISE OUT OF THE TEENS. TO MAKE MATTERS WORSE WINDY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CREATE A SIGNIFICANT WIND CHILL ALONG WITH PRODUCING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Man, this is going to be a nail bitter...normally everything seems to go against this type of system for central OH, Dec 2004 comes to mind. Exactly what I'm thinking. This kind of setup is typically NEVER perfect for us and typically we need to do well with front end snow like we did December 2004. In this situation front end snow might be tough to come by. BUT, last nights model runs were a very positive step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Exactly what I'm thinking. This kind of setup is typically NEVER perfect for us and typically we need to do well with front end snow like we did December 2004. In this situation front end snow might be tough to come by. BUT, last nights model runs were a very positive step in the right direction. as i said, the best events are the nailbiters. The only form of snow we get that is EVER well telegraphed, relatively speaking, is clipper events. I could honestly see this thing wrap up and head thru chicago just as much as it could become an app runner. the only thing that would shock me is if it were to end up a coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I feel pretty good right now. My biggest concern was to wake up this morning and see that last nights runs trended via the euro. Now that the euro has gotten some of its sanity back I am a little more assured. Regardless if we have any mixing issues initially, we need to watch for two things. First is how quickly the cold air comes in behind the low and second how cold that air is. If we end up with high snow ratios, a little bit of moisture will go a long way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I feel pretty good right now. My biggest concern was to wake up this morning and see that last nights runs trended via the euro. Now that the euro has gotten some of its sanity back I am a little more assured. Regardless if we have any mixing issues initially, we need to watch for two things. First is how quickly the cold air comes in behind the low and second how cold that air is. If we end up with high snow ratios, a little bit of moisture will go a long way! I don't think moisture will be a problem as much as where the low decides to go. I like our chances right now though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 So no matter where the low ends up going, it looks very cold afterward and it doesn't seem to be going anywhere anytime soon. I'm really thinking now that we may end up with a December as cold as 2000 or perhaps even colder if some of the models are right. Here are the coldest Decembers in Columbus since 1948: 1.1989: 19.3 2. 1963: 21.6 3. 1958: 23.4 3. 2000: 23.4 4. 1950: 24.8 4. 1976: 24.8 4. 1983: 24.8 5. 1962: 24.9 6. 1960: 25.1 7. 1985: 26.0 8. 1969: 26.8 9. 1995: 28.7 10. 1977: 29.5 Through 12/8/2010, we were at 27.4. We look to drop significantly from there. If the 12z GFS was right, we'd have a mean through 12/24 of 18.4! Another positive stat is that most of those winters were historic. The only ones that weren't were 1985-86 and 1989-90 (after December). Both 1989-90 and 1985-86 were neutral ENSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 So no matter where the low ends up going, it looks very cold afterward and it doesn't seem to be going anywhere anytime soon. I'm really thinking now that we may end up with a December as cold as 2000 or perhaps even colder if some of the models are right. That is important to consider... no big appreciable warm-ups on the horizon. Great to see. Regarding the storm... models are certainly trending in a direction that would be favorable for OH. Not to say the storm couldn't cut NW... but clearly models are were trending away from that idea. No question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 That is important to consider... no big appreciable warm-ups on the horizon. Great to see. Regarding the storm... models are certainly trending in a direction that would be favorable for OH. Not to say the storm couldn't cut NW... but clearly models are trending away from that idea. No question. Except(of course) the euro! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Except(of course) the euro! lol Even lat nights Euro, was better for OH than previous runs. It was more east, which is good as well. You've got to remember the most important thing about this type of storm. The snow is going to be heaviest North and West of the low, so moving east isnt a bad thing lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Regardless of what the euro is showing this run I still am optimistic about this storm. I do agree that east is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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