wxdudemike Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 same thing I thought, only hope we could have with that map, and albeit a slight chance still, would be if that low went due east, it couldnt come any further north than that, and even then I think it'd be too close. I don't see much of a chance that we get the heavy snow axis, but some decent wrap around snow would be better than this thing cutting up towards Chicago and getting flurries at best on the back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 i think no matter what, even if it bowls east underneath us, there would be a warm tongue at least trying to lick us. It would really have to dive south, like down to southern arkansas and then swing up to our east, which is about as likely as the bengals going to the superbowl. Since this originates from the northwest, a ridge popping out front is gonna be part of the package. Our best chance at accum is if it winds up to our east, slows down and doesn't transfer. another thing to be concerned with is when these suckers close off at 500 and truly bowl west to east....you might be able to avoid the warm tongue but then get socked with the dry slot.... These northern stream phasers are notoriously chockful of potential kiljoy scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 another thing to be concerned with is when these suckers close off at 500 and truly bowl west to east....you might be able to avoid the warm tongue but then get socked with the dry slot.... These northern stream phasers are notoriously chockful of potential kiljoy scenarios. So you are saying if it occludes early enough to avoid the worst of the WTOD, then you get the dry slot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 So you are saying if it occludes early enough to avoid the worst of the WTOD, then you get the dry slot? has happened before. December '05 (i think). Big ole bowling ball approaches from west. Snowing like hell in IN, thundersnow reported in cincy, then right after the snow begins to fall in columbus it got cutoff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 has happened before. December '05 (i think). Big ole bowling ball approaches from west. Snowing like hell in IN, thundersnow reported in cincy, then right after the snow begins to fall in columbus it got cutoff... Dry slots hit us more often than not. I think we get dry slotted more than we get the WTOD, Was it 02 that we were supposed to get the huge storm on Christmas Eve/Christmas Day. I believe local mets were calling for like 10" or something crazy and a dryslot opened up right over Cental Ohio and we got nothing but a dusting? I think it was 01 or 02. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 has happened before. December '05 (i think). Big ole bowling ball approaches from west. Snowing like hell in IN, thundersnow reported in cincy, then right after the snow begins to fall in columbus it got cutoff... Ok, so then I would be ok this weekend since I'll be back in Cincy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Dry slots hit us more often than not. I think we get dry slotted more than we get the WTOD, Was it 02 that we were supposed to get the huge storm on Christmas Eve/Christmas Day. I believe local mets were calling for like 10" or something crazy and a dryslot opened up right over Cental Ohio and we got nothing but a dusting? I think it was 01 or 02. ugggggh xmas eve '02.....awful. We got WTOD AND Dryslotted....everything that could possibly go wrong with that storm went wrong....then it was made so much worse that it was on xmas eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 everything that could possibly go wrong with that storm went wrong I beg to differ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 ugggggh xmas eve '02.....awful. We got WTOD AND Dryslotted....everything that could possibly go wrong with that storm went wrong....then it was made so much worse that it was on xmas eve columbus NEVER comes out well with storms that come up and then reform or jump to the coast. Our geography sucks for that because we are the last place west of the apps before the storms decide to transfer. They come in from the west or southwest full steam ahead and then begin to transfer right as they get to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I beg to differ. i know you do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 Ok..no more maps for me...nothing like being shot down from all angles!! I for one will be optimistic for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Congrats!! 6 days out and your in the bullseye. Shovel and sled time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Ok..no more maps for me...nothing like being shot down from all angles!! I for one will be optimistic for this one lol it'll be okay steve! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Congrats!! 6 days out and your in the bullseye. Shovel and sled time Definitely a monster snowstorm if that panned out, but hey, gives us all something to watch for the next few days, GL to you sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 Congrats!! 6 days out and your in the bullseye. Shovel and sled time JI..go back to your east coast cave!! Come out in spring!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swohiowxnut Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Got about 1" of LE overnight down here in Dayton. 2-4 inches on the ground now, depending on the suburban location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Well, we ended up with a wind blown inch. Not enough to cover the grass but enough to whiten the ground. I am really hoping this storm tracks south of here, the kids are buggin to go sledding. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I hope everyone enjoys rain followed by dry cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I hope everyone enjoys rain followed by dry cold. In love with the EC, are you? I'm still waiting for my 4"+ that the EC had us getting with the clipper this past weekend. I'm not trusting the European globals right now, neither is HPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 In love with the EC, are you? I'm still waiting for my 4"+ that the EC had us getting with the clipper this past weekend. I'm not trusting the European globals right now, neither is HPC. In love with it, no. But I'm uncomfortable having only the GFS on our side. GFS ensembles are further north, and Euro's ensembles are further south, but even so, most of them would put the WTOD right into the state and areas closer to I-80 would be seeing the snow, not us. Also, climo screams against this pretty strongly. I was positive about the clipper and it was a huge fail, so I'll be negative about this storm and see if the opposite happens again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Why did the GFS have to go north?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Why did the GFS have to go north?! Because it's far south solution was not going to happen. I just said in the other thread that perhaps the track along or just south of the Ohio River is the way to go, considering all the ensemble support, the HPC track, etc. But it wouldn't be good for us in Ohio. Too much WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Because it's far south solution was not going to happen. I just said in the other thread that perhaps the track along or just south of the Ohio River is the way to go, considering all the ensemble support, the HPC track, etc. But it wouldn't be good for us in Ohio. Too much WAA. I am wondering if we might be able to hang on to some shallow cold air north of Columbus where we would see ice/ snow rather than rain/snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 GFS per BUFK is not as bad as I was thinking, but obviously not as good as it was showing earlier... and headed in the wrong directon. But here is the 12z for Ohio cities. Columbus 0.15" Rain .04" Sleet .01" Freezing Rain 0.47" Snow Cincinnati 0.26" Rain 0.40" Sleet 0.60" Snow Cleveland 0.10" Sleet 0.01" Freezing Rain 1.08" Snow So it looks like not a lot of rain for anyone, but there's an obvious dry slot through Central Ohio. Would be probably 4-7" in Columbus, 6-9" for Cincinnati, and a foot or so for Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 GFS per BUFK is not as bad as I was thinking, but obviously not as good as it was showing earlier... and headed in the wrong directon. But here is the 12z for Ohio cities. Columbus 0.15" Rain .04" Sleet .01" Freezing Rain 0.47" Snow Cincinnati 0.26" Rain 0.40" Sleet 0.60" Snow Cleveland 0.10" Sleet 0.01" Freezing Rain 1.08" Snow So it looks like not a lot of rain for anyone, but there's an obvious dry slot through Central Ohio. Would be probably 4-7" in Columbus, 6-9" for Cincinnati, and a foot or so for Cleveland. If 1/2 a foot ends up being my worse case scenario I will be content. Unfortunately with 4-5 days before the storm arrives the models will have more than enough time to "adjust" north. Crossin the fingers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 If 1/2 a foot ends up being my worse case scenario I will be content. Unfortunately with 4-5 days before the storm arrives the models will have more than enough time to "adjust" north. Crossin the fingers! Yep, that's the point, the 12z run went in the wrong direction. Watching what the other models do, but there's just too much time for things to go either way. Honestly I don't know what will happen, but I would not put money on the south track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Uh .4" if sleet and .6" of snow works for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Uh .4" if sleet and .6" of snow works for me Hey JBCMH....how does buffkit look for us lost souls in Dayton? Appreciate it! (Its all fantasy at this point....sometimes though...its all we have) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Getting some nice bursts of heavier, fluffy LES snow right now on the west side of town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 well if it makes you guys feel any better... ...we're in Henry M.'s red circle of "where the Big Daddy will hit" on accuwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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