snowNH Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Soundings look great for tomorrow on the 00z NAM. CAPE of 3500 and LI of -6.5! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Major hailers tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Major hailers tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I'll get pounded while while I'm at work...bank on it. Happened to me on 8/7/08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 We'll probably see on the order of 2000-3500 J/KG of Cape, depending on when the action starts coming through with ML lapse rates up around 7 C/KM. Yes shear sucks but whatever...that cape and cold air aloft will do wonders. Nasty pulse storms tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Wiz what time and for how long is the threat in CCT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Wiz what time and for how long is the threat in CCT? I was thinking for CT from like 1 PM to 6 or 7 PM...with western sections from 1-4 PM then central/eastern sections from about 4-7 PM. Activity should be right during peak heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Well I am off to bed...waking up at 4:30 AM EDT to look things over before heading into work around 6:00 AM EDT...working until 4:30 PM EDT so I expect to miss everything. My mom doesn't work tomorrow afternoon so she can pick me up right at 4:30 PM and I can get home by like 4:43 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I was thinking for CT from like 1 PM to 6 or 7 PM...with western sections from 1-4 PM then central/eastern sections from about 4-7 PM. Activity should be right during peak heating. Flying out of BDL at 11AM... any CUs visible then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Flying out of BDL at 11AM... any CUs visible then? I'm sure you'll see some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I'm sure you'll see some. Wiz, you think we'll see more discrete storms instead of a line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Wiz, you think we'll see more discrete storms instead of a line? Storms may try to form into a line but given how bulk shear and vertical shear values are very weak I doubt we see any sort of real organization going on. We'll probably see more in the way of multicell clusters that pulse up and down. It's possible though, if the atmosphere has enough juice left that right along the cold front some sort of line tries to develop where shear values will be much better but this probably won't produce much at all...except some marginally severe hail, unless there is stronger instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Quite the strong signal for a MCS Wednesday too, though probably cutting SW of most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 ...NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND... EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER QUEBEC/EASTERN ONTARIO TOWARD NEW ENGLAND/NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED COOLING/STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WITH RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES/SUFFICIENT CAPE BY AFTERNOON...MULTIPLE SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING BANDS OF STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP/INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SUCH DEVELOPMENT FOCUSED IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND/NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND/OR ALONG ONE OR MORE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING WEAK COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND. SUSTAINED MULTICELLS ALONG WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Well should be a fun afternoon/evening today. Could have some clouds from upstream MCS come overhead but they won't be much of an issue, just some high clouds. Temps today across the region should range from the lower to mid 80's (coastal areas where on-shore flow will hold temps back a bit) to upper 80's to around 90F elsewhere. These temps combined with dews in the mid 60's and very steep mid-level lapse rates should yield to moderate instability this afternoon with SBcapes ranging from 1500-4000 J/KG, MLcapes ranging from 1500-2500 J/KG, MUcape values ranging from 2000-4000 J/KG, and LI values in the -4C to -8C range. The lack of shear may preclude this from being a widespread organized severe wx producing event but we should still see a fairly decent amount of reports today with numerous large hail reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Well should be a fun afternoon/evening today. Could have some clouds from upstream MCS come overhead but they won't be much of an issue, just some high clouds. Temps today across the region should range from the lower to mid 80's (coastal areas where on-shore flow will hold temps back a bit) to upper 80's to around 90F elsewhere. These temps combined with dews in the mid 60's and very steep mid-level lapse rates should yield to moderate instability this afternoon with SBcapes ranging from 1500-4000 J/KG, MLcapes ranging from 1500-2500 J/KG, MUcape values ranging from 2000-4000 J/KG, and LI values in the -4C to -8C range. The lack of shear may preclude this from being a widespread organized severe wx producing event but we should still see a fairly decent amount of reports today with numerous large hail reports. Widespread organized severe today, probably winding down around 4:43 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Widespread organized severe today, probably winding down around 4:43 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Well I am off to work. Hoping to get some good action today and hopefully it holds off until after I get home. Going to be a close call timing wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Good luck with this. Hopefully the Hubbardston force field will be in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Early AM "feel" and look says today is a good severe day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 All systems go today for one of the worst severe outbreaks SNE has seen in a long time. Damaging winds the main threat..I'd expect 700- 1000 trees down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 All systems go today for one of the worst severe outbreaks SNE has seen in a long time. Damaging winds the main threat..I'd expect 700- 1000 trees down How long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 How long? Since Tuesday for preferred locales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 How long? 20 yrs?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 All systems go today for one of the worst severe outbreaks SNE has seen in a long time. Damaging winds the main threat..I'd expect 700- 1000 trees down How many weenies inflated?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 How many weenies inflated?? You have to admit..today looks damaging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 You have to admit..today looks damaging Setup isn't bad, but shear is kind of meh. I think it looks better to our sw, but we have good CAPE progged here. 12z soundings should be interesting. If we had 30-40kts of shear, I'd be excited. Sometimes big CAPE can do good things, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Setup isn't bad, but shear is kind of meh. I think it looks better to our sw, but we have good CAPE progged here. 12z soundings should be interesting. If we had 30-40kts of shear, I'd be excited. Sometimes big CAPE can do good things, so we'll see. I like the 65dbz cell and the 2500 j/kg of SBCAPE located over a record 78 degree Lake Erie at 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I like the 65dbz cell and the 2500 j/kg of SBCAPE located over a record 78 degree Lake Erie at 7am. What about the 1500J of SBCAPE that was over lake Erie on October 13th 2006? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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