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Severe outbreak Monday 08/01


Damage In Tolland

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Doesn't really make any sense. Only guess would be that shear was even weaker than forecasted and resulted in storms that were enhanced by terrain and remained stationary. And then over time further east areas were inhibited by overshooting cloud tops from storms to the west.

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:axe: we know how that works out in NE

Sometimes those setups that nobody cares about are the ones that end up surprising. Everyone is focused on today, but ends up busting for some....not all. I don't think tomorrow's threat extends too far west, however. Probably a good day for Maine and maybe down through srn NH and maybe eastern mass.

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iPhone picture of mammatus in Nashua from about an hour ago. Pretty cool...usually don't see such a large, distinct quantity of it here.

Same up here too. Usually we get some clouds that barely resemble them but today was very well defined and saw them several different times. Pretty cool to see them but would like one good legit severe storm before the summers over.

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Same up here too. Usually we get some clouds that barely resemble them but today was very well defined and saw them several different times. Pretty cool to see them but would like one good legit severe storm before the summers over.

Yeah...would've liked it to be accompanied by a severe storm, but beggars can't be choosers, I guess.

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I don't know if one area is overwhelmingly favored. Earlier I mentioned areas to the sw perhaps in terms of a better chance of severe, but some of those areas will have clouds for a few hours. I think even into eastern mass looks good, but the one thing that a few models show is the old 7/10 split over SNE. In other words, one batch of storms over NNE and another batch over PA. I don't think it will quote happen like that, but some show that. I like what I see so far.

I don't know about the 7-10 split, since I'm a little surprised nobody east of the river saw anything, but seems like up in Maine and down to the southwest by CT river on sw into PA got into the action. Not totally surprised by that, but the wall of the ORH hills was pretty comical. Might be a few cells that try to fire as the s/w approaches.

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I don't know about the 7-10 split, since I'm a little surprised nobody east of the river saw anything, but seems like up in Maine and down to the southwest by CT river on sw into PA got into the action. Not totally surprised by that, but the wall of the ORH hills was pretty comical. Might be a few cells that try to fire as the s/w approaches.

Now that I've had the chance to go back and look at what transpired over the past several hours this is what I think...

The level of lift today was actually not that strong, the lift from the cold front alone was expected to be relatively weak as it was a more diffuse cold front...the s/w energy rotating through aloft may have actually been weaker than what models showed b/c this feature was supposed to really make for more in the way of widespread storms...well widespread to include eastern sections too.

If you watch sfc obs over the past several hours you can clearly see where this diffuse boundary setup. Areas closest to this boundary is where the storms developed, many of these areas also happen to be situated in perfect locations for enhanced lift due to topography and orographic lifting. As these storms then moved into further into the valley regions they were able to sustain themselves a bit b/c there was so much cape but then you quickly saw cores begin to collapse.

It was noted that there would be pockets of enhanced shear today, and it so happens that this area was right around the NYC region...and this is where storms really exploded and where some of the largest hail stones occurred.

Had instability been weaker today or we didn't have these steep lapse rates we definitely would not have even seen this much action today, there really wasn't a whole lot of lift going on, however, since the atmosphere was moderately unstable under the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates that was all that was needed to produce storms just out ahead of the diffuse boundary which also got help from orographic lifting. .

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