Damage In Tolland Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Looks like tomorrow could be a pretty big severe day for all of SNE. All the parameters are coming together. Very similiar situation to last Tuesday. Expect widespread damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 I think Tuesday looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Far less shear than last Tuesday. But everything else is decent so we might see some hailers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 No, this is not a similar situation to last Tuesday, completely different setups. Tomorrow's setup is will be characterized by a moderately unstable airmass coupled with very steep low and mid-level lapse rates. Last Tuesday's setup was a low cape/high shear setup with poor lapse rates but we had help from an extremely potent s/w and favorable jet quadrant to a very strong ULJ helped out as well. Could be a big hail day tomorrow with the steep lapse lapse and rather low freezing levels coupled with some nice dry air in the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 I think Tuesday looks better. It probably will be eastern sections that have the better chance...better chance to destabilize better before the energy moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 31, 2011 Author Share Posted July 31, 2011 No, this is not a similar situation to last Tuesday, completely different setups. Tomorrow's setup is will be characterized by a moderately unstable airmass coupled with very steep low and mid-level lapse rates. Last Tuesday's setup was a low cape/high shear setup with poor lapse rates but we had help from an extremely potent s/w and favorable jet quadrant to a very strong ULJ helped out as well. Could be a big hail day tomorrow with the steep lapse lapse and rather low freezing levels coupled with some nice dry air in the mid levels. It's almost exactly like last Tuesday..and will morph into primarily a damaging wind event with a few TOR's thrown in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Does anyone know if a tornado was confirmed last week in Wilimantic? I know a few people who say they actually saw the funnel clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 It's almost exactly like last Tuesday..and will morph into primarily a damaging wind event with a few TOR's thrown in How is it like last Tuesday? Setups are completely different...sure tomorrow could produce a quite a bit of reports like last Tuesday but that doesn't make it exactly like last Tuesday. Tomorrow's threats will be wet microbursts but we'll see a quite a bit of hail reports. Remember 2008? Tomorrow is similar to setups we saw in 2008, except we will be dealing with warmer sfc temps and a bit more instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Does anyone know if a tornado was confirmed last week in Wilimantic? I know a few people who say they actually saw the funnel clouds. Nope, no survey was conducted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 31, 2011 Author Share Posted July 31, 2011 Does anyone know if a tornado was confirmed last week in Wilimantic? I know a few people who say they actually saw the funnel clouds. Boobs...big big boobs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 The strong heat ridge that has been parked over much of the central and eastern US the past several weeks will retrode west a bit, this will allow for a trough to work into the Northeast from Canada and the northern Plains. This trough will swing a cold front through the region tomorrow afternoon and a strong piece of s/w energy will also pass overhead. As this cold front/trough plow into an airmass that will be very warm and humid this will set the stage for thunderstorms development. Given how the atmosphere woll be warm and juicy the potential will exist for some strong to severe t'storms. Unlike Friday we will not have to deal with clouds to start the day on Monday. With 925mb temps into the +20C's and 850mb temps around +16C and nearly full sunshine tomorrow temperatures will soar into the 80's to near 90F, especially away from the coastal areas where a more southerly component to the wind will hold temps back into the lower 80's. With this more southerly component to the wind moisture will begin to increase as well in the lower levels as dewpoints climb into the mid 60's. As the mid/upper level trough approach the region heights aloft will begin to fall and temperatures aloft will cool as well, in fact 500mb temps should cool to the -12C to -13C range. Given the presence of cold air aloft and very warm surface temperatures this will make for some fairly steep mid-level lapse rates, in the 6.5-7 C/KM range. The presence of steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with surface temps in the 80's to near 90F and dewpoints in the mid 60's will yield to a moderately unstable airmass as Cape values reach 1500-3000 J/KG range and LI values fall to between -4C and -7C. Winds aloft are expected to be fairly weak as the strongest shear values are right along and just behind the cold front, however, as the front approaches the region the shear is expected to gradually increase. Given how shear values will be weak it may be a bit difficult for storms to organize into lines and storms may be more of the pulse variety. Given the potential for a moderately unstable airmass coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates and lowering freezing levels the strongest storms tomorrow will be capable of producing some large hail, possibly in the 1-1.75'' diameter range. Some dry air in the mid levels will also help to enhance the threat for large hail. While winds aloft are fairly weak some dry air in the mid levels and very steep low-level lapse rates from strong daytime heating will yield to a threat for damaging winds in the form of wet microbursts. Given how shear will be weak storms will be very slow moving, however, flooding threat will be rather low as PWAT values are not too high, however, isolated pockets of flash flooding certainly can't be ruled out, especially if any storms porduce hail which lasts for several minutes. The timing of the front and s/w energy are expected to occur during peak heating tomorrow, maximizing the threat for strong to severe t'storms. Storms should begin firing across eastern NY as early as 11:00 AM EDT and then move eastward through southern New England between 1:00 PM EDT and 7:00 PM EDT. As the front draws closer more activity across our region will begin to develop as well. It's possible the front/trough get hung up, in which case there will also be a threat for thunderstorms; some of which could be strong to severe on Tuesday as well, especially across eastern sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Too bad we don't have better shear tomorrow... a pseudo-EML overhead during max heating and synoptic scale lift moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 GFS has 500-700 mb lapse rates near 8 c/km tomorrow afternoon in parts of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 31, 2011 Author Share Posted July 31, 2011 Too bad we don't have better shear tomorrow... a pseudo-EML overhead during max heating and synoptic scale lift moving in. Looks like a potentially wild afternoon/evening tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Looks like a potentially wild afternoon/evening tomorrow Could be but the lack of shear probably means more pulsers than anything else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 31, 2011 Author Share Posted July 31, 2011 Could be but the lack of shear probably means more pulsers than anything else Are those storms in PA/NY gonna make it overnight ..or are we capped? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Are those storms in PA/NY gonna make it overnight ..or are we capped? Could see a shower but nothing more than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Could be but the lack of shear probably means more pulsers than anything else Agreed, think we see pulse type storms but these pulsers could be extremely strong, I could see some major hail cores in some of these tomorrow accompanied by wet-microbursts as the cores collapse. Interesting to note though shear has slightly been increasing little by little past few runs, still nothing impressive though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Too bad we don't have better shear tomorrow... a pseudo-EML overhead during max heating and synoptic scale lift moving in. Yeah, but big CAPE can be big fun. We'll have to see what tonight's stuff does to the atmosphere by morning. I'll wait until tomorrow morning before getting too interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Yeah, but big CAPE can be big fun. We'll have to see what tonight's stuff does to the atmosphere by morning. I'll wait until tomorrow morning before getting too interested. Yeah exactly. We'll see but this event certainly has potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Tomorrow is like 2008...except hotter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Yeah exactly. We'll see but this event certainly has potential. I always like seeing big CAPE. Shear is good....I mean I guess that's what powered last week's severe (I think?), but at least good MLCAPE usually is a sign of lapse rates aloft that aren't necessarily terrible. We'll see...as usual...lol. Tomorrow's RAOB's should be fun. I do wish the shear was better, however. Vortex95 used to tell me...just get decent MLCAPE and the shear can do the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 31, 2011 Author Share Posted July 31, 2011 I always like seeing big CAPE. Shear is good....I mean I guess that's what powered last week's severe (I think?), but at least good MLCAPE usually is a sign of lapse rates aloft that aren't necessarily terrible. We'll see...as usual...lol. Tomorrow's RAOB's should be fun. I do wish the shear was better, however. Vortex95 used to tell me...just get decent MLCAPE and the shear can do the rest. Yeah as many of us have been saying..tomorrow is almost identical vs last Tuesday major outbreak where Ginx called in catostrophic damage in IJD. BTW where have you been? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 I always like seeing big CAPE. Shear is good....I mean I guess that's what powered last week's severe (I think?), but at least good MLCAPE usually is a sign of lapse rates aloft that aren't necessarily terrible. We'll see...as usual...lol. Tomorrow's RAOB's should be fun. I do wish the shear was better, however. Vortex95 used to tell me...just get decent MLCAPE and the shear can do the rest. GFS is going pretty crazy with mid level lapse rates so that always is a sign to me to pay attention. Not to mention we get some good height falls and CVA through the day so all that is good. Wind fields are weak so yeah I'd like to see more shear but remnant-EML days can surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Yeah as many of us have been saying..tomorrow is almost identical vs last Tuesday major outbreak where Ginx called in catostrophic damage in IJD. BTW where have you been? TOMORROW IS NOT IDENTICAL TO LAST TUESDAY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 31, 2011 Author Share Posted July 31, 2011 TOMORROW IS NOT IDENTICAL TO LAST TUESDAY For someone who called for a major Tornadic outbreak on Friday when it was obvious there would be nothing..I suggest you step aside and let the pros jump on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 For someone who called for a major Tornadic outbreak on Friday when it was obvious there would be nothing..I suggest you step aside and let the pros jump on this one Maybe you should get glasses... I never called for a major tornado outbreak, I said if we had enough sunshine or broke out into sunshine we would have seen something. That obviously didn't happen. But if you look off to the west where they did have sunshine...they had a few tornadoes. Since you like quoting things quote my post and highlight the number of times I stated IF WE SEE SUN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Yeah as many of us have been saying..tomorrow is almost identical vs last Tuesday major outbreak where Ginx called in catostrophic damage in IJD. BTW where have you been? Up in Center Harbor NH. Lakes Region. Great time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 GFS is going pretty crazy with mid level lapse rates so that always is a sign to me to pay attention. Not to mention we get some good height falls and CVA through the day so all that is good. Wind fields are weak so yeah I'd like to see more shear but remnant-EML days can surprise. Yep, that's what I hope. Missed last week's fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 SPC WRF looks great for tomorrow, development around 18z in the CT River Valley, pushing off the coast by 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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