tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 hr 240 lgt snow from pa west...nao is very negative, nice pna ridge out west also, still a pos epo thought.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 GFS all alone. I would normally say that we're screwed if the GFS was our only support, but in light of recent events I don't know. The GFS was spot on from 180 hours out on the clipper that hit North Carolina...don't we remember? The ECMWF modeled that same clipper as bombing off the east coast wiping out Boston from 180 hours out...so did the GGEM to my recollection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 ye only for upstate ny, its a small area.....majority of the area in -16 to -20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 only for upstate ny, its a small area.....majority of the area in -16 to -20 aight thx man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I would normally say that we're screwed if the GFS was our only support, but in light of recent events I don't know. The GFS was spot on from 180 hours out on the clipper that hit North Carolina...don't we remember? The ECMWF modeled that same clipper as bombing off the east coast wiping out Boston from 180 hours out...so did the GGEM to my recollection. Agreed....It is so surprising to me how quickly everyone forgets how poorly the EURO and GGEM handled the storms that were to happen today and middle of next week. Not saying that the EURO is wrong with this solution....for all I know this will end up being a lakes cutter. So far this season, however, the EURO is just as bad as any other model. Taking it to the bank in this time frame is moronic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 push the neg trough axis further east, and link the two pieces of energy a little later and you get the gfs.. The euro phases things in the midwest basically lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Catching up on the Raleigh images cause I know alot like those more and they been lagging ..here is 168 hrs Followed by 192 Last night the means had the system almost underneath KPHL (south of there) I wonder if that is something that we would not be looking more at... It seems as if the OP run attempted this with the new low over C VA... Will post means when they are out.... I would not write this potential off yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 aight thx man no problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 HPC 12Z GUIDANCE RUNS OF GFS/CMC/UKMET OFFER THREE ENTIRELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AND REINFORCE THE UNCERTAINTY OF PREVIOUS RUNS. UKMET HAS VERY SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL STREAM SEPERATION AT DAY 6 SAT MORE SO THAN ANY OTHER MODEL OR PRIOR RUN IN THE SRN PLAINS WITH AN UPSTREAM STRONG DIGGING UPPER LEVEL JET THAT WOULD IMPLY A MORE N-NEWD MOVEMENT TAKING THE LOW WEST OF THE APPLACHNS AFTER DAY 7 SUN. CMC HAS ALSO GONE MUCH CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION OF A STRONG CENTRAL CONUS STORM LATE PERIOD AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HAS 12Z NAVY NOGAPS. MOST CONSISTENT IS THE GFS WHICH HAS A WEAKER FLATTER DIGGING SHORTWAVE THAN ITS PRIOR RUN BUT REMAINS REASONABLY CLOSE TO ITS 00Z AND 06Z SOLUTION AND ECMWF WHICH CONTINUES ITS SOLUTION FROM 00Z. A MINOR SFC PROG MADE ADJUSTMENT CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN AND LASTEST 12Z GFS WITH A REFORMING COASTAL LOW OFF VA CAPES LATE SUNDAY. THIS CONTINUES THE LOW CONFIDENCE AND UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SHORTWAVE AMPLITUDE AND INTENSITY ALONG WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK DAYS 7-8 SUN/MON. CONSENSUS OF MODEL RUNS AT 12Z IS WEST OF THE APPLACHNS AND A WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NEEDED TOMORROW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 You would think that with very cold air coming on the backside of the storm, you need to have a very strong surface low, and especially this time of year, that would favor a more westward track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Yeah, it looks like the Euro is going to hold on to its 0z solution or probably even come in a bit west of that. I think the majority of the GFS ensembles have a solution more in line with the euro than the GFS but a couple do have a gfs look / I still think the euro idea is probalby more right but even if a compromise is right, we'd be screwed in the DC to PHl area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I would normally say that we're screwed if the GFS was our only support, but in light of recent events I don't know. The GFS was spot on from 180 hours out on the clipper that hit North Carolina...don't we remember? The ECMWF modeled that same clipper as bombing off the east coast wiping out Boston from 180 hours out...so did the GGEM to my recollection. It wasn't...it had nothing in the Carolinas. FWIW, the GFS from that same run a week ago had a MECS along the East Coast on 12/6 blasting people with snow. Good luck with that one. http://www.americanw...s/page__st__200 Agreed....It is so surprising to me how quickly everyone forgets how poorly the EURO and GGEM handled the storms that were to happen today and middle of next week. Not saying that the EURO is wrong with this solution....for all I know this will end up being a lakes cutter. So far this season, however, the EURO is just as bad as any other model. Taking it to the bank in this time frame is moronic see above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I'd go closer to the GFS solution at this point... there's no reason why the storm would stay that far to the west with no block in place. Both models keep the system somewhat open-wave, which, along with a west-to-east UL jet early, would tell me that this thing won't be able to stick around like it does on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 ECM ensemble means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 ECM ensemble means Looks much more east. Good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I like tombo's PBP and even leave my region in order to see it. This is not Eastern, this is Americanwx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 Looks much more east. Good news. its further east than the op, but compared to the 0z ens runs its further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 its further east than the op, but compared to the 0z ens runs its further west. Wouldn't it be a bit west since the OP was also west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Wouldn't it be a bit west since the OP was also west? That would effect it, yes. I don't know how many members of ensembles the euro has. I know the GFS has more than 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Dont know if we can do it, yet. Artic cold air needs to be stronger and need a HP or a source to keep the system further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 its further east than the op, but compared to the 0z ens runs its further west. The euro ensemble mean has a low at 168 hours over KY with DCA already above freezing at 850 mb. By 192 hours the low is over Long Island/NYC. Not good for I95 snow. I'd say it's in between the GFS and euro solutions but has enough low over the OH valley region to nix most of the I95 east crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 The euro ensemble mean has a low at 168 hours over KY with DCA already above freezing at 850 mb. By 192 hours the low is over Long Island/NYC. Not good for I95 snow. I'd say it's in between the GFS and euro solutions but has enough low over the OH valley region to nix most of the I95 east crowd. Looks like the 18Z GFS pushed it right out as a cutter. Turned poss MDLT snow on Sunday into about an inch of sleet/3" snow on Saturday at the 126 mark. Doesn't even turn back once offshore, just heads on out into the Atlantic. Grrr... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Looks like the 18Z GFS pushed it right out as a cutter. Turned poss MDLT snow on Sunday into about an inch of sleet/3" snow on Saturday at the 126 mark. Doesn't even turn back once offshore, just heads on out into the Atlantic. Grrr... We must be looking at different models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 We must be looking at different models You live west of the mountains. . Move to DC and lakes cutters won't give you one flake. E TN is Usually good for a Reach Around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 My expectations are very low for snow in December. When the month ends up much colder than normal, but with no snow other than some flurries, I won't feel so bad. I hope I'm wrong, but I think there are going to be some very disappointed snow-lovers in DC by the end of the month. Best to enjoy days like this with the wind and flurries - at least it did feel very much like winter today. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Looks like the 18Z GFS pushed it right out as a cutter. Turned poss MDLT snow on Sunday into about an inch of sleet/3" snow on Saturday at the 126 mark. Doesn't even turn back once offshore, just heads on out into the Atlantic. Grrr... Actually, 18Z gfs ensembles look more encouraging than the operational. There clearly are two different options. The euro and and inland cutter and the GFS which reforms far enough off the coast ot be interesting though for DCA, my guess is if you bring the surface low closer to the coast so you get more precip, the temp profile will get more iffy. That said, who really knows. Its' too far out in time to same anything other that there is a chance of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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