tombo82685 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 pwats are pretty high 1.8-1.9 through the region, localized heavy rains where thunderstorms hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 thanks. the hodographs were fairly robust earlier , but have since backed off. The target area is near the warm front around NPA,SNY... They had some trouble clearing today, which should prevent a bigger outbreak.. Still though, happy with the potential down in our neck of the woods with straight line winds and good lightning. I see urbanized flooding a real problem with straight line wind damage being very prevalent near the philly suburbs as the squall lines move east. I hope we get a lighting show out of this. It has been a while for training t-storms- just may get them this time with the east west flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 keep an eye on the scattered breaks in the line between Scranton and State College...could be a nice broken line but there could very well be some screw zones in that line as they work through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 first up Ptb and Voyager Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 keep an eye on the scattered breaks in the line between Scranton and State College...could be a nice broken line but there could very well be some screw zones in that line as they work through. OK you jinxed it now-- we are all screwed. Of course you are right- I see a bunch of us being screwed tonight. Its just that way it has been all summer. I am already starting to see signs of this by it raining near ABE now and not in western lehigh county. These isolated storm events are becoming typical. I guess the severe thunderstorm watch should have emphasized isolated storm events as well. Even though storms are increasing in intensity, the areal coverage is nothing to write home about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 nasty cell working through Schuylkill County...warnings out for almost of Berks and part of Lehigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Come on man, stop mucking up these threads already. At 3:40 you say this. I see urbanized flooding a real problem with straight line wind damage being very prevalent near the philly suburbs as the squall lines move east. I hope we get a lighting show out of this. It has been a while for training t-storms- just may get them this time with the east west flow Then an 35 minutes later, you say this. OK you jinxed it now-- we are all screwed. Of course you are right- I see a bunch of us being screwed tonight. Its just that way it has been all summer. I am already starting to see signs of this by it raining near ABE now and not in western lehigh county. These isolated storm events are becoming typical. I guess the severe thunderstorm watch should have emphasized isolated storm events as well. Even though storms are increasing in intensity, the areal coverage is nothing to write home about. Are you bi-polar, seriously? And on top of it all, you have a frigging severe storm on your doorstep. I can't stress enough, post less and observe more. SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 501 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011 PAC011-077-292145- /O.CON.KPHI.SV.W.0203.000000T0000Z-110729T2145Z/ BERKS PA-LEHIGH PA- 501 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT FOR SOUTHERN LEHIGH AND NORTHERN BERKS COUNTIES... AT 457 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LENHARTSVILLE...OR 18 MILES NORTH OF READING...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... KUTZTOWN AND 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF FLEETWOOD BY 515 PM EDT... LYONS BY 520 PM EDT... TOPTON BY 525 PM EDT... ALBURTIS AND ANCIENT OAKS BY 535 PM EDT... BALLY AND MACUNGIE BY 540 PM EDT... ZIONSVILLE BY 545 PM EDT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 that break in the line is aimed right at the delaware valley though i think it fills.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Come on man, stop mucking up these threads already. At 3:40 you say this. Then an 35 minutes later, you say this. Are you bi-polar, seriously? And on top of it all, you have a frigging severe storm on your doorstep. I can't stress enough, post less and observe more. SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 501 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011 PAC011-077-292145- /O.CON.KPHI.SV.W.0203.000000T0000Z-110729T2145Z/ BERKS PA-LEHIGH PA- 501 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT FOR SOUTHERN LEHIGH AND NORTHERN BERKS COUNTIES... AT 457 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LENHARTSVILLE...OR 18 MILES NORTH OF READING...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... KUTZTOWN AND 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF FLEETWOOD BY 515 PM EDT... LYONS BY 520 PM EDT... TOPTON BY 525 PM EDT... ALBURTIS AND ANCIENT OAKS BY 535 PM EDT... BALLY AND MACUNGIE BY 540 PM EDT... ZIONSVILLE BY 545 PM EDT... He lives in Ancient Oaks West development, so it'll hit him at 5:35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 He lives in Ancient Oaks West development, so it'll hit him at 5:35. I hope it does. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Isolated cells developing out by TTN.. that area has been hit hard this year. Not as widespread as i thought by now. but still a good amount of time left. We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 520 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011 .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... TORNADO WATCH 701 IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MONROE COUNTY IN PA AND SUSSEX COUNTY IN NJ UNTIL 11PM, WHICH CANCELS THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THOSE COUNTIES. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 699 IS REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11PM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH AREA.PLEASE MONITOR WEBSITES, NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL MEDIA STATION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON A WEST TO EAST LINE ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE STORMS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE IN THIS FASHION WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD DRIFT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1786 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0340 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NY/PA/NJ...SWRN NEW ENGLAND. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 699... VALID 292040Z - 292215Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 699 CONTINUES. PRIMARY SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD BE OVER SRN/ERN PORTIONS WW...ALTHOUGH AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO NWRN PORTIONS WW. WW MAY BE CLEARED FROM NW-SE DURING NEXT FEW HOURS AS FRONTAL/INSTABILITY TRENDS WARRANT. SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT INTO WRN PORTIONS CT/MA AS AIR MASS BECOMES MORE STABLE. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY NE OF LK ONT...WITH COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS WRN NY AND NWRN PA TO CENTRAL OH. AHEAD OF FRONT...CONFLUENCE LINE AND ACCOMPANYING ZONE OF FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL ASCENT IS SUPPORTING BKN BAND OF STG/ISOLATED SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL PA WSWWD TO SERN OH...ALONG SRN FRINGES OF MOST FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES ALOFT. WARM FRONT IS MOVING NEWD ACROSS NWRN/CENTRAL NJ AND EXTREME NERN PA IN ERRATIC FASHION...GIVEN DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/MIXING PROCESSES BEHIND EARLIER CLOUD COVER. ASSOCIATED THETAE/INSTABILITY GRADIENT IS RATHER DIFFUSE...AND AS SUCH...MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS ARE SFC-BASED WELL INTO FRONTAL ZONE OVER NRN NJ AND SERN NY. SUPPORTED BY SFC HEATING AND DEW POINTS 70S F...MLCAPE RANGES FROM AROUND 1000 J/KG NEAR NY/CT BORDER TO NEARLY 3000 J/KG OVER SERN PA AND SRN NJ NEAR DE RIVER VALLEY. DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EACH WILL REMAIN MOST FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND LOCALIZED TORNADO POTENTIAL IN WARM-FRONTAL ZONE...WITH EFFECTIVE VALUES OF SHEAR/SRH 40-50 KT AND 150-250 J/KG RESPECTIVELY. OTHERWISE...NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES ARE EVIDENT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF BOWING SEGMENTS AND/OR LEWPS TO ENHANCE DAMAGING GUST THREAT. ..EDWARDS.. 07/29/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I hope it does. Thanks Raining now, with the main storm 10 minutes away. Quick mover though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 the cells by shippensburg to mdt and just north i think becomes our area of interest as that has taken on an easterly route...if my thought is right look for that area to build. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I'm getting distant rumbles of thunder with the storms all the way up in Berks Co. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I'm getting distant rumbles of thunder with the storms all the way up in Berks Co. Impressive. The t-storm has passed me. Little to no wind . Rain was less than a .25 inch. Under the trees got barely wet. The severe thunderstorm warning was needed in my opinion because of the extensive cloud to ground lighting. Parsley that is why you were hearing thunder in Berks County- the sweet spot for the t-storms. I did not get slammed but I was hoping for it. These storms are isolated now but I hope the train starts soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 The t-storm has passed me. Little to no wind . Rain was less than a .25 inch. Under the trees got barely wet. The severe thunderstorm warning was needed in my opinion because of the extensive cloud to ground lighting. Parsley that is why you were hearing thunder in Berks County- the sweet spot for the t-storms. I did not get slammed but I was hoping for it. These storms are isolated now but I hope the train starts soon. take your pick.. or... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 The t-storm has passed me. Little to no wind . Rain was less than a .25 inch. Under the trees got barely wet. The severe thunderstorm warning was needed in my opinion because of the extensive cloud to ground lighting. Parsley that is why you were hearing thunder in Berks County- the sweet spot for the t-storms. I did not get slammed but I was hoping for it. These storms are isolated now but I hope the train starts soon. Damn, thought you were going to get rocked. We'll see what happens down here shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 The t-storm has passed me. Little to no wind . Rain was less than a .25 inch. Under the trees got barely wet. The severe thunderstorm warning was needed in my opinion because of the extensive cloud to ground lighting. Parsley that is why you were hearing thunder in Berks County- the sweet spot for the t-storms. I did not get slammed but I was hoping for it. These storms are isolated now but I hope the train starts soon. So someone took a long strand of lights from the clouds to the ground. Interesting source of lighting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 MId level Lapse rates havent really panned out like i thought as far as coverage and >6.0degrees...Prob the reason for the lack of severe warnings in our CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Green Lane area must be getting rocked based on the radar. Power is actually flickering here. 10 miles away from the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 The t-storm has passed me. Little to no wind . Rain was less than a .25 inch. Under the trees got barely wet. The severe thunderstorm warning was needed in my opinion because of the extensive cloud to ground lighting. Parsley that is why you were hearing thunder in Berks County- the sweet spot for the t-storms. I did not get slammed but I was hoping for it. These storms are isolated now but I hope the train starts soon. Severe warning criteria doesn't include lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Green Lane area must be getting rocked based on the radar. Power is actually flickering here. 10 miles away from the storm. yea thats a nasty looking cell....fwiw the shear has increased 35-40 knots over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 605 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... BUCKS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... * UNTIL 700 PM EDT * AT 601 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GREEN LANE...OR 16 MILES SOUTH OF ALLENTOWN...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... SPRING MOUNT AROUND 610 PM EDT... SOUDERTON AROUND 620 PM EDT... HATFIELD AROUND 625 PM EDT... LANSDALE AND FRICKS AROUND 630 PM EDT... CHALFONT AROUND 635 PM EDT... AMBLER AROUND 645 PM EDT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 MId level Lapse rates havent really panned out like i thought as far as coverage and >6.0degrees...Prob the reason for the lack of severe warnings in our CWA We have one out now for Montco and Bucks. It's a pretty decent but broken line...events in our region are rarely widespread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I'm hoping that MontCo cell back builds a bit west, either looks like some should plow through in the next 30 minutes. Pitch back to my north toward JCT777's area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 had heavy rain, lot of thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Winds gusting 20-25 mph with the heart of the storm passing just to my NE. A few drops starting to fall. Plenty of thunder and lightning to my north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 That storm is almost on top of me. Lots of loud thunder already. I'll probably lose power ... always do with these storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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