phlwx Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 this has a decent chance of being a decent PA and N/C NJ outbreak...parameters for shear are solid north of Philly but I think things are more in line for straight line winds...I am impressed with the "look" on radar even this early in the day. If we can clear it out quickly and early this morning, things look pretty good for a line to fire (or for the Lakes line) and march through after 3/4 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 would love a soaking since we missed out on the good stuff yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Sure looks like ample sunshine is on the way later this morning to help add fuel and heat to the atmosphere. Temps. could easily shoot up into the 90s real fast. I'm just hoping the bulk of the activity doesn't bypass us to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Sure looks like ample sunshine is on the way later this morning to help add fuel and heat to the atmosphere. Temps. could easily shoot up into the 90s real fast. I'm just hoping the bulk of the activity doesn't bypass us to the NE. That makes two of us. The history of this weather pattern on the radar indicates it will go NE but I am hoping. Let the sun come out today to fire up the instability. The ground is finally moisten up, now we just need some sun to fire up the t-storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Definetely juicy out with dewpoints in the mid-70s and temps. climbing through the 80s. 12z NAM tries to fire up a line along I-80 in PA and drop it SE. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Definetely juicy out with dewpoints in the mid-70s and temps. climbing through the 80s. 12z NAM tries to fire up a line along I-80 in PA and drop it SE. We'll see. The 12z HRR for what its worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 The 12z HRR for what its worth Interesting because it agrees well with the 12z NAM at 00z tonight. Has major convection over extreme SE PA and much of Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 FWIW the 13Z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 in west chester for the day/night and it is real humid out. I think the HRRR has the right idea for this evening. good sun all day and cape in the 2000 range with shear in 20-30 range...should make for a good night. where is lee? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 in west chester for the day/night and it is real humid out. I think the HRRR has the right idea for this evening. good sun all day and cape in the 2000 range with shear in 20-30 range...should make for a good night. where is lee? Around! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Man it's nasty out. 5% tornado risk for eastern Pa from spc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1781 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS PA...NJ...NY. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 291657Z - 291900Z SVR POTENTIAL FCST TO INCREASE THROUGH NEXT 2-3 HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES...BOTH IN BOUNDARY LAYER AND ALOFT. DAMAGING GUSTS ARE MAIN CONCERN...WITH CONDITIONAL TORNADO POTENTIAL. MCV IS EVIDENT IN COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY LOOPS OVER ERN LAKE ONT AND ADJOINING SERN ONT...AND SHOULD MOVE EWD TO EXTREME NRN NY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EVIDENT IN AVAILABLE VWP SAMPLING...CONSISTENT WITH TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENTS BOTH S OF MCV AND IN ADVANCE OF APCHG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS IS INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN PA AND ADJOINING PORTIONS NY. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 40-50 KT SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS THIS AREA BY 19Z...AS TSTMS DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE. BUOYANCY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF CLOUD BREAKS ACROSS PORTIONS SRN NY AND NRN PA EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY. INSOLATION AND SFC DEW POINTS 70S F WILL OFFSET WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WARM-SECTOR MLCAPE RANGING FROM AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN NY TO 2500 J/KG OVER SOME OF CENTRAL-ERN PA. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT FROM S-CENTRAL NJ NWWD ACROSS ERN PA...BECOMING ILL-DEFINED AMIDST COOLING EFFECTS OF EARLIER CLOUDS/PRECIP OVER CENTRAL NY JUST N PA BORDER. COMBINED WARM FRONT AND DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS SRN NY AND NERN PA THROUGH AFTERNOON...SPREADING FAVORABLY DESTABILIZING AIR MASS NEWD. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED INVOF THAT BOUNDARY WHERE BACKING OF SFC WINDS AND ENHANCED BOUNDARY-LAYER VORTICITY WILL BE PRESENT...SUPPORTING SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WITH ANY RELATIVELY SUSTAINED/DISCRETE TSTMS. OTHERWISE...DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC PROFILE FAVORS DAMAGING GUSTS...WHETHER IN ISOLATED FORM FROM DISCRETE CELLS OR BETTER-ORGANIZED WIND POTENTIAL FROM BOW ECHOES. ..EDWARDS.. 07/29/2011 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Earhtlight posted this from the NYC thread: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 it's the 12z SPC WRF.. around 8-10 tonight.. earlier the further north towards NYC you go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 derecho? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 FWIW 16z RUC is in line with a nice hit for Philly metro/burbs with a squall line. not too shabby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 FWIW 16z RUC is in line with a nice hit for Philly metro/burbs with a squall line. I like it I like it alot. not too shabby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 The HRRR is pointing out some sexy images for a squall line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Tstorm Watch is out until 11PM WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 699 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 241 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011 COUNTY SPECIFIC MESSAGE: /O.NEW.KPHI.SV.A.0699.110729T1841Z-110730T0300Z/ THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 699 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN NEW JERSEY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 12 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY MERCER MONMOUTH IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY HUNTERDON MIDDLESEX MORRIS SOMERSET SUSSEX WARREN IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY BURLINGTON CAMDEN GLOUCESTER OCEAN IN PENNSYLVANIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 10 COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BERKS LEHIGH NORTHAMPTON IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA CARBON MONROE IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA BUCKS CHESTER DELAWARE MONTGOMERY PHILADELPHIA THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM... BLAIRSTOWN...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...DEPTFORD...DOYLESTOWN... EAST BRUNSWICK...EASTON...EDISON...FLEMINGTON...FREEHOLD... GLASSBORO...JIM THORPE...MEDIA...MOORESTOWN...MORRISTOWN... MOUNT HOLLY...NEW BRUNSWICK...NEWTON...NORRISTOWN... NORTH BRUNSWICK TOWNSHIP...PERTH AMBOY...PHILADELPHIA...READING... SAYREVILLE...SOMERSET...STROUDSBURG...TOMS RIVER... TRENTON AND WEST CHESTER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 EDIT* too slow! lol here's the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Radar is starting to light up just south of I-80 in Pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 nasty squall line advertised on the latest run of the HRRR. it often isn't wrong this far out. looking good for severe throughout the entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 699 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 240 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL 1100 PM EDT. HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST OF STATE COLLEGE PENNSYLVANIA TO 30 MILES NORTH OF NEW YORK CITY NEW YORK. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY. AREA VAD DATA INDICATE THAT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BELT OF 40-50 KT WLY WINDS IN THE MIDLEVELS OVER NRN PA/SRN NY WHERE THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEVELOPING LINE SEGMENTS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS. A TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY MATURE SUPERCELLS THAT CAN FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD THROUGH NERN PA/SERN NY. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030. ...MEAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Radar is starting to light up just south of I-80 in Pa. not surprising as the best parameters right now are found there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Definetely a good sign for us to the south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Really liking today's set up. Plenty of sun, mid level lapse rates approaching 6.5degrees ( indicitive of dry air aloft) with low level moisture. Thermo's are plentiful with cape values up to 3500 in some places, and adequate shear. I dont think we've all these ingredients come together like this all year round in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Really liking today's set up. Plenty of sun, mid level lapse rates approaching 6.5degrees ( indicitive of dry air aloft) with low level moisture. Thermo's are plentiful with cape values up to 3500 in some places, and adequate shear. I dont think we've all these ingredients come together like this all year round in these parts. agreed...today's the best probably of the season so far but that isn't saying much as this year's been relatively tame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Pretty good setup... wouldn't be surprised if one or two tornadoes form in the SVR Watch area. Biggest reason why I didn't make the drive up to chase is the wind shear... fairly unidirectional throughout the column and SFC winds are pretty weak. RUC suggests more backing at the SFC as we head into the late afternoon, but I think it's overdoing it... NAM more realistic as its SFC winds stay out of the WSW/W instead of switching to the S. Areas closer to the coast have slightly better LL shear. Should be primed for severe wind, though! Good luck with the storms today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Pretty good setup... wouldn't be surprised if one or two tornadoes form in the SVR Watch area. Biggest reason why I didn't make the drive up to chase is the wind shear... fairly unidirectional throughout the column and SFC winds are pretty weak. RUC suggests more backing at the SFC as we head into the late afternoon, but I think it's overdoing it... NAM more realistic as its SFC winds stay out of the WSW/W instead of switching to the S. Areas closer to the coast have slightly better LL shear. Should be primed for severe wind, though! Good luck with the storms today. thanks. the hodographs were fairly robust earlier , but have since backed off. The target area is near the warm front around NPA,SNY... They had some trouble clearing today, which should prevent a bigger outbreak.. Still though, happy with the potential down in our neck of the woods with straight line winds and good lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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