Srain Posted July 30, 2011 Author Share Posted July 30, 2011 A busy RECON schedule is being tacked for 91L...I think we can see that the NHC has a lot of interest in this disturbance... WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1230 PM EDT SAT 30 JULY 2011 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 31/1100Z JULY TO 01/1100Z AUGUST 2011 TCPOD NUMBER.....11-060 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (CENTRAL ATLANTIC) FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 A. 31/1800Z B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST C. 31/1530Z D. 14.5N 56.0W E. 31/1730Z TO 31/2330Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49 A. 01/0000Z B. NOAA9 02EEA SURV C. 31/1730Z D. NA E. NA F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71 A. 01/0600Z,1200Z B. AFXXX 0305A CYCLONE C. 01/0400Z D. 15.2N 58.1W E. 01/0530Z TO 01/1200Z F. SFC TO 10,0000 FT 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS. B. POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV MISSION FOR 02/0000Z. 3. REMARKS: A. IF SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP, FLIGHT THREE WILL BECOME A 01/1200Z INVEST MISSION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Euro ensembles seem to suggest there is no way it doesn't recurve if it has any development and is anywhere near the Greater Antilles, but if it does somehow delay development, the trough lifts back out fairly quickly. The operational Euro does develop it somewhat, looks like, just shreds it when it gets jerked out of the Caribbean and across Hispaniola, so alternative A of the Caribbean Cruiser and CA/Gulf threat w/ chase potential looks like the less likely option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 I am liking the tasked gulfstream...should help us sort out some of the track issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 The gfs ens. mean fcast for the NAO is near -2 as of days 7-10. If you want to see a hurricane plow well inland into the East coast as a direct hit off the ocean, say from N FL northward, the best bet seems to be for the NAO to be positive. If not positive, it almost has to be greater than -1. This is based on storms since 1950. Invest 91L has very little chance to hit the east coast. If it were to somehow do that as a hurricane, I'd expect it to be just a graze of, say, the Outer Banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Invest 91L has very little chance to hit the east coast. If it were to somehow do that as a hurricane, I'd expect it to be just a graze of, say, the Outer Banks. Agree 100%. The only part of the US this has a chance to hit is the V.I. or P.R. Then it's for the fishes. With that ridge anchored over the Plains/Rockies, we may have a tough time this year with US landfalls except perhaps TX. 1980 was a dull year with the notable exception of Allen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Can you place any odds as to which scenario is likely yet? Too early still? Seems like with the latitude gain so far (as Phil mentioned), a fish storm has higher odds than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Agree 100%. The only part of the US this has a chance to hit is the V.I. or P.R. Then it's for the fishes. With that ridge anchored over the Plains/Rockies, we may have a tough time this year with US landfalls except perhaps TX. 1980 was a dull year with the notable exception of Allen. Sounds like last year, hmm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 30, 2011 Author Share Posted July 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Earl redux FTW. Trough isn't quite deep enough though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Real good looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Sounds like last year, hmm? There is a reason why a lot of the East Coast biggies happen in September or even October. I suspect the Northern Hemisphere wave number may change and the mean trough position will probably shift (and a mean trough position is just that, a mean), and I am sure troughs will be deeper and some may be negative tilt. Glass half full, people! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Thankfully its a horrid model... 12 Nogaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 30, 2011 Author Share Posted July 30, 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 There is a reason why a lot of the East Coast biggies happen in September or even October. I suspect the Northern Hemisphere wave number may change and the mean trough position will probably shift (and a mean trough position is just that, a mean), and I am sure troughs will be deeper and some may be negative tilt. Glass half full, people! The glass is always half-empty in regards to east-coast landfalls but we forget how common it was in years past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 80% in the 2pm TWO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 91L is punching right into the SAL (Saharan Air Layer) , not a very favorable upper air environment... Doesn't look too bad here...looks like it's riding the southern edge... image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Doesn't look too bad here...looks like it's riding the southern edge... image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 12z GFDL takes it on a more southerly route with slow development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 30, 2011 Author Share Posted July 30, 2011 For grins, the GFDL is further S... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 30, 2011 Author Share Posted July 30, 2011 One of the big concerns, from a NHC standpoint, is Haiti. Bill Read mentioned last Saturday that a million people are basically homeless and either living in tents or ruins after the earthquake. Their concern is with those folks and does keep forecasters and relief workers up at night thinking about a nightmare scenario for that poor country and its people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 For grins, the GFDL is further S... My AccuWx PPV 500 mb outer grid suggests 91L in Cuba is past the trough axis. GFDL solution is also about the best possible scenario for a TC hitting Haiti to survive the trip, crossing the SW Peninsula. Wiki says even that, 'Shark Peninsula', has 2000 meter plus peaks. I still trust the recurve, but the LOLgaps solution can't be completely excluded this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 AL, 91, 2011042218, , BEST, 0, 265N, 640W, 35, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 60, 1013, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, Based on this, we'll be going directly to Tropical Storm once the system is declared. That's not this 91L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 That's not this 91L You're most certainly correct. I wonder why I ended up getting three month old cache. Sorry about that, lets try this again. AL, 91, 2011073018, , BEST, 0, 128N, 478W, 30, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 One of the big concerns, from a NHC standpoint, is Haiti. Bill Read mentioned last Saturday that a million people are basically homeless and either living in tents or ruins after the earthquake. Their concern is with those folks and does keep forecasters and relief workers up at night thinking about a nightmare scenario for that poor country and its people. Yea sad stuff, when he referred to Haiti as a failed country, that hit me pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 91l is huge! Very nice outflow and coming together nicely.I say it gets classified tonight. This looks like a potentially dangerous situation for the islands. Maybe the NHC wont wait to classify it at the last second like they did with Tomas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Hispaniola doesn't kill it completely like the 0Z run, but does it no favors, and it still gets recurved per new Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Emily (to be) likely to be off Bahamas next Friday and pattern favors an escape out to sea with no SE landfall. Good news as no one needs hurricane damage in this extremely difficult economic situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 The gfs ens. mean fcast for the NAO is near -2 as of days 7-10. If you want to see a hurricane plow well inland into the East coast as a direct hit off the ocean, say from N FL northward, the best bet seems to be for the NAO to be positive. If not positive, it almost has to be greater than -1. This is based on storms since 1950. Invest 91L has very little chance to hit the east coast. If it were to somehow do that as a hurricane, I'd expect it to be just a graze of, say, the Outer Banks. Are you just looking at the CPC monthly mean? I took a look at that awhile back and the signal is quite weak. I think this is because hurricanes travel in that area for a few days time so you won't see much of a signal in a monthly mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 TC's don't have to hit the US for them to be important. This could very well be something significant for the islands, so I couldn't care less about the NAO state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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