Srain Posted July 30, 2011 Author Share Posted July 30, 2011 Recon today? Not until tomorrow: A. INVEST SUSPECT AREA AT 31/1800Z NEAR 14.0N 54.0W. B. ADDED....A G-IV MISSION FOR 01/0000Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Can we keep the long range pattern discussions, EC no action disco and rainstorm in the Atlantic thread and not in the 91L thread. Thanx... http://www.americanw...-2011-part-iii/ Thanks, Steve Yawn.. feels like last year all over again You always bring so much value to the table in these threads. Again... The models are generally useless until there is a defined COC... Even then its a shotgun. The statistical models are generally useless. The globals are fine to use as guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Aviation Dave looks to be the only member who will have a vested interest as he is going on a cruise in the islands this week. Globals really downplaying this right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 30, 2011 Author Share Posted July 30, 2011 Living in St Croix now... I've got my eyes on this one! May be my first 'cane since Isabel (was in Maryland at the time). Aviation Dave looks to be the only member who will have a vested interest as he is going on a cruise in the islands this week. Globals really downplaying this right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_50km/zooms/WMBas11.png Pretty strong winds on the west side. Could go straight to a 50-60 MPH storm when classified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 http://manati.orbit....oms/WMBas11.png Pretty strong winds on the west side. Could go straight to a 50-60 MPH storm when classified. I just lost almost all respect for you... Edit: 1) Look at the Lat/Lon Coordinates: 2) The wind going the wrong way (clockwise)!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 http://manati.orbit....oms/WMBas11.png Pretty strong winds on the west side. Could go straight to a 50-60 MPH storm when classified. That's the S Pacific, the Sern Hemisphere and non tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 I'm really surprised the EC is not more bullish for development. The conditions appear to be quite favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Changing synoptic pattern over North AMerican in 4-7 days could come in time to save the East Coast. Of course way too early to think that for sure until we know for sure the pattern changes. http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/don-dies-over-texas-emily-likely-to-form-24-48-hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_50km/zooms/WMBas11.png Pretty strong winds on the west side. Could go straight to a 50-60 MPH storm when classified. Let's stop with the nonsense in the storm threads. I know you know better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 30, 2011 Author Share Posted July 30, 2011 I'm really surprised the EC is not more bullish for development. The conditions appear to be quite favorable. Still lacks organization. No banding features evident and still possibly two vorts embedded within the overall disturbance. For now, I tend to believe the Euro/UKMET solution of a weaker system passing through the Central Islands in a couple of days with little development. RECON may be able to close off a low tomorrow afternoon, at the earliest, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 12z SHIPS has 91L over Hispaniola at the end of the run. That would be an interesting scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 I just lost almost all respect for you... Edit: 1) Look at the Lat/Lon Coordinates: 2) The wind going the wrong way (clockwise)!!! Almost all? Too forgiving! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Still lacks organization. No banding features evident and still possibly two vorts embedded within the overall disturbance. For now, I tend to believe the Euro/UKMET solution of a weaker system passing through the Central Islands in a couple of days with little development. RECON may be able to close off a low tomorrow afternoon, at the earliest, IMO. I agree. It is a very large tropical wave and its going to take some time before it can get its act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 I just lost almost all respect for you... Edit: 1) Look at the Lat/Lon Coordinates: 2) The wind going the wrong way (clockwise)!!! Oops I an using my iPhone and I been up since 2 AM working. 91L is in the area that was not picked up I see now. I need some sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 I need some sleep a lesson on the Coriolis effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Haha I wasn't even paying attention to where I clicked, think I noticed which way the winds were going? Lol. That was embressing to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 91L is punching right into the SAL (Saharan Air Layer) , not a very favorable upper air environment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 this thing needs to stay weak and become a Caribbean cruiser to be any threat to the US. Most likely, yes. This will either sneak thru the Caribbean or be a fish storm IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Most likely, yes. This will either sneak thru the Caribbean or be a fish storm IMO. Can you place any odds as to which scenario is likely yet? Too early still? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Most likely, yes. This will either sneak thru the Caribbean or be a fish storm IMO. Option A, pls. Thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 30, 2011 Author Share Posted July 30, 2011 Looking at HI RES visible imagery, the vort near 15N/45W appears to be the dominant feature. It does look like a mid level spin is developing and outflow is becoming a bit better established. The disturbance is moving rather quickly, but should begin to slow as it nears the Central Caribbean Islands. Hopefully future MW data will verify that area and if it does, I could see the NHC begin to ramp up their interest with the Islands being near that 72 hour point were advisories could be needed. We all remember Tomas last year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 GFS solution might be close enough to SNE for a surf watching party on the Cape. Edit to add and somewhat off topic- anyone know why the Euro blows up a small system coming off the East Coast into a megalow in the North Atlantic in a day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Option A, pls. Thx. Fish hater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Looking at HI RES visible imagery, the vort near 15N/45W appears to be the dominant feature. It does look like a mid level spin is developing and outflow is becoming a bit better established. The disturbance is moving rather quickly, but should begin to slow as it nears the Central Caribbean Islands. Hopefully future MW data will verify that area and if it does, I could see the NHC begin to ramp up their interest with the Islands being near that 72 hour point were advisories could be needed. We all remember Tomas last year... Looking less linear than before..definitely more curving and banding of the structure. Seems to be getting more organized today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 I've seen better microwave images. Though there is slight banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html if you look at the lower level clouds you can see rotation (12.5N, 49.5W)i enjoy looking at these systems in the "present"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 12z SHIPS has 91L over Hispaniola at the end of the run. That would be an interesting scenario. SHIPS is an intensity model based off dynamical GFS fields. It does not produce a track forecast. Prior to being declared a tropical depression, SHIPS uses BAMM as its track forecast to diagnose the surrounding environment. Once a system is upgraded, SHIPS uses the OFCL NHC track as its input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 12z SHIPS has 91L over Hispaniola at the end of the run. That would be an interesting scenario. SHIPS is an intensity model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Going from a purely observational standpoint, this system has already gained a significant amount of latitude in the last 24-48 hours so I think its increasingly likely it will not be a Caribbean Cruiser. The 500mb ridge to its north is the strongest right now than it will be during its entire lifetime, so if we are already seeing a significant wnw movement, chances are pretty good that is going to continue with some bend further to the north as the ridge breaks down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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