Riptide Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 The current and projected pattern is one that would cause 91L to recurve well east of the U.S. east coast (just as occurs in the 18Z gfs) unless it stays weak/further south and gets into the GOM. There is a lack of high pressure either near the NE US or in the typical Bermuda high position to drive it either into the SE or up the east coast. Until this pattern changes, the east coast above S FL (with the possible exceptions of the Outer Banks and Cape Cod) shouldn't be threatened with a direct landfall from any TC. So, rainstorm prevails FOR THE TIME BEING. Indeed. The midwestern ridge has pretty much been locked in since April and that's no good for EC landfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 The current and projected pattern is one that would cause 91L to recurve well east of the U.S. east coast (just as occurs in the 18Z gfs) unless it stays weak/further south and gets into the GOM. There is a lack of high pressure either near the NE US or in the typical Bermuda high position to drive it either into the SE or up the east coast. Until this pattern changes, the east coast above S FL (with the possible exceptions of the Outer Banks and Cape Cod) shouldn't be threatened with a direct landfall from any TC. So, complete rainstorming is the way to go FOR THE TIME BEING. The pattern can change in say what 5-10 days. Nothing is certain of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 Keep us posted Larrywx... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Keep us posted Larrywx... lulz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 The pattern can change in say what 5-10 days. Nothing is certain of course. Yep, nothing is certain in the wacky world of wx. Based on persistent model consensus, I'd say to wait at least til 8/10. Let's see if the deeper GFS eastern trough verifies by then. If so, let's see if this allows a decent amount of surface high pressure from Canada to move into the NE US. If that occurs and stagnates, maybe it will change up the pattern to a much more favorable one once the eastern trough lifts (more surface high pressure nearby). That would not be an unusual pattern shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 Yep, nothing is certain in the wacky world of wx. Based on persistent model consensus, I'd say to wait at least til 8/10. Let's see if the deeper GFS eastern trough verifies by then. If so, let's see if this allows a decent amount of surface high pressure from Canada to move into the NE US. If that occurs and stagnates, maybe it will change up the pattern to a much more favorable one once the eastern trough lifts (more surface high pressure nearby). That would not be an unusual pattern shift. Can we keep the long range pattern discussions, EC no action disco and rainstorm in the Atlantic thread and not in the 91L thread. Thanx... http://www.americanw...-2011-part-iii/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Can we keep the long range pattern discussions in the Atlantic thread and not in the 91L thread. Thanx... http://www.americanw...-2011-part-iii/ i'm sorry, i know this contributes absolutely ZERO added value...but i literally almost peed my pants!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Almost Cherry. Probably 2 AM or 8 AM. 1. A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVEIS LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING ONLY LIMITED SHOWER ANDTHUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLEFOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEMHAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONEDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARDAT 15 TO 20 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Some of the latest computer model runs are very interesting for 91L. Interests on the East Coast and the Gulf Coast need to keep a close eye on 91L, because it will be a very large storm, with an expansive windfield. 18Z GFS 18Z HWRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Latest model track predictions for 91L... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Yawn.. feels like last year all over again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 lolz Yawn.. feels like last year all over again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Again... The models are generally useless until there is a defined COC... Even then its a shotgun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Looking pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 It does have a decent amount of convection with it. Question is can it maintain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Can we keep the long range pattern discussions, EC no action disco and rainstorm in the Atlantic thread and not in the 91L thread. Thanx... http://www.americanw...-2011-part-iii/ Sorry that I went beyond the period relevant to 91L. However, I will reiterate that I think that the pattern for the next week will not allow 91L to threaten the U.S. east coast as a result of the lack of decent high pressure in the general vicinity of the NE U.S. or western Atlantic. That was the first point I was making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 My current thinking is into the caribbean sea moves nw through puerto rico but theres where im going to say afterwards anyone from the SE US to Bermuda have to monitor this system because it looks like it may be a strong one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 im hoping for my first real hurricane chase this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Again... The models are generally useless until there is a defined COC... Even then its a shotgun. I would agree, although it does have a fairly well defined COC. The only reason why 91L is not a TD is convective organization. Convection has begun to build up once again near the COC of 91L, so I expect a TD in the next 12-24 hours. Lower Level Convergence and Uper Level Divergence appear to be excellent with 91L, so I expect that it will maintain its convection somewhat over the next several hours. EDIT: As of the 2 am TWO, 91L got a cherry. TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION DON LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE VERY LOW IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 CAT 2 US Virgin Islands. North Westerly sheard TS 150 miles east of Bermuda. Final Answer, Next! I meant west of Bermuda, all this drinking got me disoriented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Its a code red 70% hatched area now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Almost Cherry. Probably 2 AM or 8 AM. 1. A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVEIS LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING ONLY LIMITED SHOWER ANDTHUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLEFOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEMHAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONEDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARDAT 15 TO 20 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 00Z ECMWF still keeps this as a weak system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 I think the 70% chance is too high for two reasons: 1) Convection is still pulsing and not consistent near the center of circulation. 2) The dry air ahead of the system. Have seen many systems before in that same general area which develop later than first thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 SHIPS/LGEM have a PR landfall at about 95 knots... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 I'd say either tonight or tomorrow morning we will have a TD or TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 this thing needs to stay weak and become a Caribbean cruiser to be any threat to the US. The Davis Straight blocking and low heights and troughing off the US East Coast and is quite strong for this time of year. The GFS even thinks the troughing could be strong enough to rip a developed storm out of the Caribbean and bring it northwest north of the Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Recon today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 this thing needs to stay weak and become a Caribbean cruiser to be any threat to the US. The Davis Straight blocking and low heights and troughing off the US East Coast and is quite strong for this time of year. The GFS even thinks the troughing could be strong enough to rip a developed storm out of the Caribbean and bring it northwest north of the Islands. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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