k*** Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I said an Andrewesque track, not intensity. If I had to guess now, it would be a betsyesque track, jeanneesque intensity, and erinesque (1995, not 1989) size Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big O Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 If I had to guess now, it would be a betsyesque track, jeanneesque intensity, and erinesque (1995, not 1989) size Funny. "I cringed." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 12z Euro digs the trough more than it's previous run, but 91L is weaker and farther south.... reinforcing the idea that it will either be a recurve or a Caribbean/GOM threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I said an Andrewesque track, not intensity. No worries. I use the track comparison of past Texas biggies when in weenie mode and I'm sure there are some folks that cringe. Did show restraint with Don and never used Celia so I'm taking baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 ...or nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 If I had to guess now, it would be a betsyesque track, jeanneesque intensity, and erinesque (1995, not 1989) size Betsyesque and Andrewesque are basically the same I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 If I had to guess now, it would be a betsyesque track, jeanneesque intensity, and erinesque (1995, not 1989) size Which Jeanesque intensity when it reaches New Orleans? 2004 Jeanne near Florida? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Betsyesque and Andrewesque are basically the same I thought. Betsy had two really nice fakeouts. If it happened today the board would meltdown for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 12Z HWRF has a hurricane, goes north of the Islands. I agree that this needs to stay weak so it can make it through the Caribbean, or it will be for the fishies given the position of the strong central US ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Mike Montgomery's pouch site a dividing streamline analysis for each pouch, although admittedly it's difficult to interpret. What's easier to interpret for me are the wind vectors, which I believe are the ones that are used for calculating the streamlines. The description of the product is here. The original paper associated with this is here: Riemer and Montgomery (2010) What Riemer and Montgomery (2010) show is that the pouch is distorted in the presence of shear, which make the TC vulnerable to dry-air intrusions. In their simulation, they had a TC undergoing easterly speed shear, so easterly storm-relative upper-level winds with westerly storm-relative low-level winds. Hence, you get inflow into the western quad, and doing back trajectories (Fig. 6 in the paper) shows that the dry air intrusion is *most effective* when it originally located downshear-right. However, the magnitude of the dry-air intrusion into the TC depends on moisture gradient, the vertical profile of moisture, and the vertical profile of winds...so it *can* come from elsewhere. My interpretation of this is that it doesn't necessarily contradict Dunion's work. The dry air doesn't just travel inwards towards the TC, but it also gets advected counterclockwise around the TC. It may be that if you see dry air upshear of the TC, the Riemer and Montgomery processes described above may have already been underway for some time. I do think it's either inaccurate or misleading to say that the shear vector is "advecting" the dry air into the TC. From what I've read on the topic, it's more complicated than that. I found this to be very interesting reading. I have a coffee stained copy on my desk that I printed out not to long ago. I was thinking that all the talk of rapid development might be overly optimistic after looking at the GFS "dividing" streamlines on the site this morning. That combined with the SOI spike and the NAO had me quietly leaning towards a more southerly route and not a slam dunk out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 Wide shot VIS Imagery... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 FWIW, the UKMet is close to the GFS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 First ITCZ low that has a decent chance of becoming a hurricane. Game on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Despite the lack of convection today, AMSU is showing a pretty decent circulation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Despite the lack of convection today, AMSU is showing a pretty decent circulation... looks to have a few vortices competing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Models may be sensing some kind of weakness in the Berrmuda high allowing it to escape north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Between the Euro non-developing Caribbean to Gulf cruiser, and the GFS recurve, I'm tempted to make the old S2K Canada to Nicaragua bears watch comment. But I won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Models may be sensing some kind of weakness in the Berrmuda high allowing it to escape north. Only problem with most of the NHC tropical models is initialization and boundary conditions off the GFS. I do not know if the GFDL outermost grid is large enough to make it semi-independent of what the GFS is doing toward Day 4 and 5 of the run. If the GFS ridge and trough speeds and strengths are off, a lot of the tropical guidance will follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Between the Euro non-developing Caribbean to Gulf cruiser, and the GFS recurve, I'm tempted to make the old S2K Canada to Nicaragua bears watch comment. But I won't. It's 240 hours... but with that said, you can see some clues through a consensus of these two models. Prior, the Euro was way too excited for development, and the GFS wasn't excited much at all... now the trend has reversed with the GFS going back to its typical intense recurve scenario, and the Euro going west and weak. The key to the future of track of this will be the Greater Antilles. If it manages to stay away from them and get/stay stronger, look more towards a GFS style solution. On the other hand, if it tries to hit several of them and loses strength, look for more of a Euro-style solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Gaining convection and has circulation. Think 40 or 50% at 8 PM. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 This system already has a surface circulation. I think we will see a quick ramp up in the probabilities if convection continues to blossom across the llc. I'd say we are 24-36 hours away from TCG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Gaining convection and has circulation. Think 40 or 50% at 8 PM. http://www.ssd.noaa..../flash-avn.html Sun is still up. On the vis loop, looks like more than one center, easternmost one may have West winds to the South of it, but overall, still somewhat lacking in organization. 40% sounds about right in my amateur opinion. First visible loop images tomorrow could be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Sun is still up. On the vis loop, looks like more than one center, easternmost one may have West winds to the South of it, but overall, still somewhat lacking in organization. 40% sounds about right in my amateur opinion. First visible loop images tomorrow could be very interesting. I agree with both points. I noted two distinct centers earlier today but was too lazy to post about them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Interestingly enough the 12Z GFDL, which was developing this into a hurricane, has completely reversed and now looks like the 12Z Euro, weak LP into the Islands in about 4 days. almost as though the system got in between the initializaion points for that part of the Atl Basin grids - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Also, largely spaced circulations won't take off quite as fast due to inertia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Also, largely spaced circulations won't take off quite as fast due to inertia. Iagree with that. Huge area of water vapor moving WNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Looks like that if this system were to continue to organize, it would be a very large system, contrary to TS Don. It has a large and broad circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 18z GFS plows this through the central caribbean. There is a massive weakness in the ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 18z GFS plows this through the central caribbean. There is a massive weakness in the ridge. The current and projected pattern is one that would cause 91L to recurve well east of the U.S. east coast (just as occurs in the 18Z gfs) unless it stays weak/further south and gets into the GOM. There is a lack of high pressure either near the NE US or in the typical Bermuda high position to drive it either into the SE or up the east coast. Until this pattern changes, the east coast above S FL (with the possible exceptions of the Outer Banks and Cape Cod) shouldn't be threatened with a direct landfall from any TC. So, complete rainstorming is the way to go at least FOR THE TIME BEING..say through ~8/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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