Avdave Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Dave, Glad to hear it. You missed another 100 degree day yesterday. Emily is finally looking a little more organized so it may be deepening a bit. Most of the Hurricane models miss have the stomr missing the U.S. except the shallow and medium BAMS. I think that implies that if the storm stays weak Fl still is in the picture but the stronger the system gets the more likely it is to recurve. Still this early in the game, you can't rule out anything. Thx Wes. Yeah I was laughing at the end of the evening show on the main stage, the cruise fun director showed us an accu wx radar map from 3 hours prior to that time the last days, no clue what he was talking about, LOL. Im just glad we missed it, but at the same time was looking forward to seeing some good waves. good luck to the people of DR and Haiti it sounds like. The humidity was so heavy last night around 11pm. Wow, you could have cut it with a knife, it was brutal outside on the deck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I think Florida needs the rain even more than Georgia/SC. I hope the system stays weak and goes into Georgia / south Carolina. That area really could use the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I think Florida needs the rain even more than Georgia/SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I stand corrected! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I think Florida needs the rain even more than Georgia/SC. A month ago the drought was bad, but we get a lot of daily t-storms. It's still dry, but nothing like it was 1-2 months ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Elongated from the SW to the NE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 With such heavy and widespread convection, that LLC is going to tighten like a screw in a wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 recon headed back in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I have no idea what to think. Now there are outflow boundaries shooting out the northwestern quad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 recon headed back in There's another one enroute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I have no idea what to think. Now there are outflow boundaries shooting out the northwestern quad. Don't think, just present your clients with a hurricane plowing thru Homestead. You'll be popular. Edit: I'm the anti-Typhoon Tip, I get my posts very near the top of the page everytime. Thanks mods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Don't think, just present your clients with a hurricane plowing thru Homestead. You'll be popular. Edit: I'm the anti-Typhoon Tip, I get my posts very near the top of the page everytime. Thanks mods. Good thing I only have to send one forecast a day. I think I'd have amended my forecast about 3 different times in the last 3 hours if I was actually operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I have no idea what to think. Now there are outflow boundaries shooting out the northwestern quad. There's an utter absence of organized rain bands, likely due to the suppression by dry air. The convective pattern is not organized at all and not indicative of intensification IMO. The bursting of convection in sheared storms hardly ever results in anything other than temporary intensification in my experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 With such heavy and widespread convection, that LLC is going to tighten like a screw in a wall. The sat appearance is improving rapidly. If the center is indeed steady now under the deep convection would expect pressure to drop and winds to be on the increase shortly. It looks like the low-mid level flow has slowed some, as evidenced by the slowdown in forward speed from yesterday. This could be alleviating the shear some, as the northwesterly flow at 300 mb is still evident on the PR sounding this morning. The realignment of the center closer to the convection is a positive short-term sign, as it's allowed the storm to hold its own. I'm skeptical if this is a beginning of a longer-term intensification trend though, given the continued presence of the northwesterly flow aloft and the strengthening of the 850-200 mb shear over the next 24-36 hours by SHIPS. Given current trends, this will probably at least hold its own until it interacts with Hispaniola. What happens after that is highly uncertain, but the shear does improve after the island crossings. Elongated from the SW to the NE... sometimes it's just better to read and learn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 the only thing keeping this from going is SAL at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 2, 2011 Author Share Posted August 2, 2011 If there is any good news regarding this cyclone, we will see another G-IV mission tomorrow. Any help to guidance will go along way... WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1130 AM EDT TUE 02 AUGUST 2011 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z AUGUST 2011 TCPOD NUMBER.....11-063 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. TROPICAL STORM EMILY FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49 A. 03/1800Z,04/0000Z A. 04/0000Z B. AFXXX 0805A EMILY B. NOAA9 0905A EMILY C. 03/1645Z C. 03/1730Z D. 16.8N 69.3W D. NA E. 03/1730Z TO 04/0000Z E. NA F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71 A. 04/0600Z,1200Z B. AFXXX 1005A CYCLONE C. 04/0445Z D. 17.9N 71.0W E. 04/0530Z TO 04/1200Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT. B. A G-IV MISSION FOR 05/0000Z DEPARTING 04/1730Z. C. A P-3 TAIL DOPPER RADAR MISSION DEPARTING 04/2000Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 sometimes it's just better to read and learn... the only thing keeping this from going is SAL at the moment lolz We won't really know what's going until recon samples Emily. Sure, it could be a disorganized mess but let's not pick sides... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 recon data looks like winds have increased slightly in the NE quadrant.. vortex will tell the story.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 51kts flight level winds / 49 kts SMRF .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 So Jorge is bullish, CUMet is bearish, and I have no clue. Good thing we have a consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 As has been predicted by the GFS ensenble mean for a number of days, the NAO has fallen to near -2 and may fall a bit further. This represents the lowest daily NAO reading since 12/1/10. The pattern associated with this should help to protect the US east coast from a direct/nongrazing hurricane hit. Also, I'm giving only a small shot at a direct TS hit from off the Atlantic north of FL. Hitting FL as a TS would be a better bet a la Ernesto of 2006 when the NAO was also near -2. However, it staying completely offshore the east coast seems to be the best bet as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.1.3 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 02 AUG 2011 Time : 164500 UTC Lat : 15:20:26 N Lon : 63:53:14 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 3.2 / 999.4mb/ 49.0kt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.1.3 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 02 AUG 2011 Time : 164500 UTC Lat : 15:20:26 N Lon : 63:53:14 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 3.2 / 999.4mb/ 49.0kt FWIW, the ADT has a known high bias in sheared situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 So Jorge is bullish, CUMet is bearish, and I have no clue. Good thing we have a consensus. Moderately bullish... I don't think we see more than a high end TS before land interaction... more bullish in the W Atl, but still too early for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 51kts at 975mb, extrap around 1006mb, though not quite to the center yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Pressures have fallen, now let's see if there's a consolidated LLC or just a vigorous TW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.1.3 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 02 AUG 2011 Time : 164500 UTC Lat : 15:20:26 N Lon : 63:53:14 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 3.2 / 999.4mb/ 49.0kt Hmmmm, so roughly 10mb from 5 hrs ago. Wonder if it verifies though the COC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plowable Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Damn I was hoping for 8 to 12 to break the heat .... 3-6" are likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 So Jorge is bullish, CUMet is bearish, and I have no clue. Good thing we have a consensus. I'd probably go with something around steady-state around 35-40 kt, with some short-term fluctuations typical of sheared storms. Despite the impressive wind readings and the lower pressure on the current pass, I'm still not convinced this is a long-term intensification. It's certainly within the realm of possibility that it is, but then again we've been fooled by this before. I don't think this will die before Hispaniola though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Still elongated very probably... from NE/SW, next set of obs will probably confirm this. Edit: See? At the top of the page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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