mappy Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 000 URNT12 KNHC 021525 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052011 A. 02/15:05:40Z B. 15 deg 16 min N 063 deg 59 min W C. NA D. 45 kt E. 041 deg 34 nm F. 107 deg 44 kt G. 042 deg 39 nm H. EXTRAP 1008 mb I. 23 C / 307 m J. 24 C / 304 m K. NA / NA L. NA M. NA N. 123 / 01 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF305 0505A EMILY OB 16 MAX FL WIND 44 KT NE QUAD 14:47:20Z SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT ; maybe up to 50 mph? (That's right, you've been invaded by the king of the ice pu$$ies.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Maybe you should post less an read more...guesses for fun just clog things up and add very little value. That's nice, have a great day. Now back to Emily: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Stay on topic. Now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 000 URNT12 KNHC 021525 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052011 A. 02/15:05:40Z B. 15 deg 16 min N 063 deg 59 min W C. NA D. 45 kt E. 041 deg 34 nm F. 107 deg 44 kt G. 042 deg 39 nm H. EXTRAP 1008 mb I. 23 C / 307 m J. 24 C / 304 m K. NA / NA L. NA M. NA N. 123 / 01 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF305 0505A EMILY OB 16 MAX FL WIND 44 KT NE QUAD 14:47:20Z SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT ; maybe up to 50 mph? (That's right, you've been invaded by the king of the ice pu$$ies.) I have a hard time with that ob, considering the dry air should be making it more difficult for the strongest winds to mix down, plus the flight level max was only 44 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 70 mph seems possible, minimal Hurricane strength hmm? Not too far off... The track avoids most of hispaniola and Cuba, then slams the RFQ into Miami as a strengthening hurricane. Meanwhile, the gfs and the euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Now that's what I am talking about. Finally a center actually in the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I have a hard time with that ob, considering the dry air should be making it more difficult for the strongest winds to mix down, plus the flight level max was only 44 kts. It must be one of the "visually estimated" obs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Look at it go. It's becoming pretty massive with a rapidly expanding CDO(Central Dense Overcast). Could Emily's LLC be aligned with the convection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Look at it go. It's becoming pretty massive with a rapidly expanding CDO(Central Dense Overcast). Could Emily's LLC be aligned with the convection? It really doesn't jive with the recon obs at all. There was barely enough of a wind shift for a VDM. I'm not entirely sure what is going on with the storm right now, but whatever it is, it isn't normal. It appears to be some sort of complete reorganization. Interestingly, the 12z GFS is showing some strengthening over the next 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 There's was certainly a relocation, and the LLC is not as well defined as yesterday... but this is a case where it's a good thing for a storm to take a step back to move two steps forward. It looks like it's under the best upper level configuration, and if the low level center starts to tighten, then we can see some good rate of strengthening before it starts to interact with land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Kinda reminds me of last season with all the storms that looked like they should have been much more until the recon data came in. Still have not seen the local news yet here in Myrtle beach, too busy catching up on voodoo punch but I imagine as jay said last night local stations will begin the hype er ratings machine by tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 There's was certainly a relocation, and the LLC is not as well defined as yesterday... but this is a case where it's a good thing for a storm to take a step back to move two steps forward. It looks like it's under the best upper level configuration, and if the low level center starts to tighten, then we can see some good rate of strengthening before it starts to interact with land. Yeah, I agree, Jorge. If this thing indeed is relocating farther south, it will be farther away from the strongest low level easterlies and the driest mid-level air. The 12z GFS definitely supports your position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 GFS shows some nice strengthening in the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Kinda reminds me of last season with all the storms that looked like they should have been much more until the recon data came in. Still have not seen the local news yet here in Myrtle beach, too busy catching up on voodoo punch but I imagine as jay said last night local stations will begin the hype er ratings machine by tonight. It also reminds me of a storm or two earlier in the 2000s (can't remember which ones) that became a storm, but then the LLCC dissipated, leaving the MLC and a low-level wave, so it was declassified... one in particular I remember actually didn't get declassified but was given "6 hours" to reorganize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 GFS shows some nice strengthening in the Bahamas. Yep, an anticyclone builds nicely over Emily... the only con is La Hispaniola, but if the GFS verifies, it would certainly become a hurricane, and probably a major at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPFLL Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 It also reminds me of a storm or two earlier in the 2000s (can't remember which ones) that became a storm, but then the LLCC dissipated, leaving the MLC and a low-level wave, so it was declassified... one in particular I remember actually didn't get declassified but was given "6 hours" to reorganize. I believe that storm was Debby? I remember it quite well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 GFS says- here fishy fishy fishy..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Yep, an anticyclone builds nicely over Emily... the only con is La Hispaniola, but if the GFS verifies, it would certainly become a hurricane, and probably a major at that. I've always been under the impression that global models can give clues to the strength of tropical systems, despite them not being tropical models themselves, but I find it funny that the 00z GFS barely had a kink in the isobars...yet the 12z GFS has a pretty good tropical cyclone in the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Pretty fascinating evolution, but I don't think we are out of the woods yet. The last recon VDM before it left indicated the center jumped further NW again, so there really isn't any continuity and the center is still really broad. I am also still concerned that a dry air intrusion could decouple the circulation again. However, the trends today have been baby steps in the right direction for a more intense storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Unfortunately the San Juan WSR-88D is down at the moment. The TDWR is available but it is a bit farther away from the storm. Does appear to be strong convection near the apparant COC on sat and radar (despite the large distance). it LOOKS like Emily is getting her act together, but of course looks can be deceiving. Center may be broad and ill-defined as mentioned above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42060 This buoy is 71 miles NNE of the "center" sustained in the upper 20's gusting to mid 30's....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I've always been under the impression that global models can give clues to the strength of tropical systems, despite them not being tropical models themselves, but I find it funny that the 00z GFS barely had a kink in the isobars...yet the 12z GFS has a pretty good tropical cyclone in the Bahamas. There has been complex changes in the evolution of Emily the last 12 hours. This is probably a case of a near the edge situation, where if the original LLC had stayed intact, a weaker/sheared system would have prevailed, which is what the 0Z runs of the GFS and Euro had... but it had weakened, which I'm assuming helped it to become diffuse and the strong convection to the SE forced it to relocate under the better environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I believe that storm was Debby? I remember it quite well. Well there was Debby, but the one I remember specifically redeveloped much later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Pretty fascinating evolution, but I don't think we are out of the woods yet. The last recon VDM before it left indicated the center jumped further NW again, so there really isn't any continuity and the center is still really broad. I am also still concerned that a dry air intrusion could decouple the circulation again. However, the trends today have been baby steps in the right direction for a more intense storm. My guess is that we have an elongated LLC with more than one center... in this case the one with the better environment will survive as the low pressures can fall further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 It looks like the low-mid level flow has slowed some, as evidenced by the slowdown in forward speed from yesterday. This could be alleviating the shear some, as the northwesterly flow at 300 mb is still evident on the PR sounding this morning. The realignment of the center closer to the convection is a positive short-term sign, as it's allowed the storm to hold its own. I'm skeptical if this is a beginning of a longer-term intensification trend though, given the continued presence of the northwesterly flow aloft and the strengthening of the 850-200 mb shear over the next 24-36 hours by SHIPS. Given current trends, this will probably at least hold its own until it interacts with Hispaniola. What happens after that is highly uncertain, but the shear does improve after the island crossings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 The sat appearance is improving rapidly. If the center is indeed steady now under the deep convection would expect pressure to drop and winds to be on the increase shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Well after all that worrying by me with reagrds to Emilys' waves yesterday and today. They really went tha bad. We were on a due south track from St Croix and then hung a left in the early morning hours to head towards Barbados. The Captain said we came within 180 miles of Emily last night around 2 am, From 6pm-9am today was when the waves were the highest but not that bad. It paid to take the longer track west of the Island. About 240 miles of the Venezuela cost. Got a quick downpour last night around 630pm-700pm on our way out st Croix. No thunder or lightning but wow, you can defintely knew you were in the close approx of a tropical system. It was so damn humid, worst I have ever felt. So now OVC skies and should arrive in Barbados sometime after 2am or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 It would almost be humorous at this point if this thing failed altogether. I hope the system stays weak and goes into Georgia / south Carolina. That area really could use the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Well after all that worrying by me with reagrds to Emilys' waves yesterday and today. They really went tha bad. We were on a due south track from St Croix and then hung a left in the early morning hours to head towards Barbados. The Captain said we came within 180 miles of Emily last night around 2 am, From 6pm-9am today was when the waves were the highest but not that bad. It paid to take the longer track west of the Island. About 240 miles of the Venezuela cost. Got a quick downpour last night around 630pm-700pm on our way out st Croix. No thunder or lightning but wow, you can defintely knew you were in the close approx of a tropical system. It was so damn humid, worst I have ever felt. So now OVC skies and should arrive in Barbados sometime after 2am or so. Dave, Glad to hear it. You missed another 100 degree day yesterday. Emily is finally looking a little more organized so it may be deepening a bit. Most of the Hurricane models miss have the stomr missing the U.S. except the shallow and medium BAMS. I think that implies that if the storm stays weak Fl still is in the picture but the stronger the system gets the more likely it is to recurve. Still this early in the game, you can't rule out anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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