Ed Lizard Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Emily has slowed down per 8:00 AM advisory and still no sign of the NW turn. More a speed/relocation issue than a direction issue looking at the first forecast issued. Eyeballing it is on the Southern end of the path cone, but I think its a touch early to think the NHC forecast is seriously wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Don't want to be a post hog, but the 1315Z satellite shows deep convection and turning pretty close to the recon center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Wow... I think Emily is finally starting to get decently organized. It's still going to take a while... and I still don't see Hurricane status before Hispañola, but the next 48 hours should see some steady strengthening. With respect to Hispañola, I am sticking to my guns and saying that it will miss the island or skim the coast to the south. I don't see a major, shredderrific landfall there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Don't want to be a post hog, but the 1315Z satellite shows deep convection and turning pretty close to the recon center. the emotional roller coaster is too much to take!11! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Wow... I think Emily is finally starting to get decently organized. It's still going to take a while... and I still don't see Hurricane status before Hispañola, but the next 48 hours should see some steady strengthening. With respect to Hispañola, I am sticking to my guns and saying that it will miss the island or skim the coast to the south. I don't see a major, shredderrific landfall there. I also noticed the shift slightly south which could now have Emily's center avoid most of Hispaniola, that would obviously make a large difference if it does graze or miss compared to a direct hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 New VDM relocates the center farther south-southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 2, 2011 Author Share Posted August 2, 2011 New VDM relocates the center farther south-southeast. Well it certainly isn't out racing the convection. Nice 200mb high anchored to the N as well. Today should be interesting to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 WVE animation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Well it certainly isn't out racing the convection. Nice 200mb high anchored to the N as well. Today should be interesting to watch unfold. It's not the afternoon yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Clearly have some improvement in outflow in just about every quadrant this morning. Even with that, looking the water vapor though, I am not sure the last time I have seen such significant dry air ahead of a system like that. Then when combined with the trough plowing South through Florida, I think the NHC made a pretty good call on track and intensity. Similar thinking with a few on here the last few pages or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 That center fix falls in the middle of the deep convection. New VDM relocates the center farther south-southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Quick question for those in the know. Is the recon data showing the Surface Pressure has gone up from 1007 to 1008 or is that just a different area of pressure? Thanks in Advance & back to lurking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Quick question for those in the know. Is the recon data showing the Surface Pressure has gone up from 1007 to 1008 or is that just a different area of pressure? Thanks in Advance & back to lurking. It was a complete center relocation, so it's almost like a discontinuity in the track. However, yes, the MSLP of the system is now 1008mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Quick question for those in the know. Is the recon data showing the Surface Pressure has gone up from 1007 to 1008 or is that just a different area of pressure? Thanks in Advance & back to lurking. Adding on to what Adam said, don't take that as a sign of weakening as usually there are pressure fluctuations of this sort in situations like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 WVE animation In this WV loop, where are the features that would bring Emily to the northwest and then force a sharp recurve? The front over Florida seems to be positioned and moving in a direction (nearly due S as opposed to W/NW to E/SE that seems to typically pull storms north and then force a recurve) such that it would block Emily, rather than pick it up and bring it north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 My forecast. Just for giggles. Just a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 ...EMILY HESITATES...IT COULD BE REORGANIZING... 11:00 AM AST Tue Aug 2 Location: 15.3°N 63.6°W Max sustained: 40 mph Moving: Stationary Min pressure: 1007 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 My forecast. Just for giggles. Just a guess. You're fairly new here and seem to have the right attitude, but I don't know what makes you think Emily will be pushing 60 mph in a day and almost a hurricane by Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 You're fairly new here and seem to have the right attitude, but I don't know what makes you think Emily will be pushing 60 mph in a day and almost a hurricane by Hispaniola. I dont know Ed, that doesnt seem too far fetched to me considering the improvement we have seen this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 A visual of the relocation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dolebot_broward_nw Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 It seems to my aging memory that weak TC's fare better with Hispanola than stronger ones once past the island, and (re)generate more quickly. True? Also, any weak TC approaching Florida will have additional dry air entrainment issues to deal with. Not a pretty picture for Emily. Maybe she'll be a good rain producer in the Southeast. Have you seen the sounding out of Miami? There isn't much dry air anywhere, PW is over 2" today. Looking at the MIMIC-TPW only shows a slot of dry air that she's been moving with for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 You're fairly new here and seem to have the right attitude, but I don't know what makes you think Emily will be pushing 60 mph in a day and almost a hurricane by Hispaniola. With the recent better convection around the center, but like i said its more just a guess for fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dolebot_broward_nw Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 In this WV loop, where are the features that would bring Emily to the northwest and then force a sharp recurve? The front over Florida seems to be positioned and moving in a direction (nearly due S as opposed to W/NW to E/SE that seems to typically pull storms north and then force a recurve) such that it would block Emily, rather than pick it up and bring it north. Well as with all weather features, You must think about things in terms of heights. Higher pressure always pushes lower pressures around. Lower pressures erode higher pressures. The trough coming down to pick up Emily won't so much as snatch her up, as eat away at the west side of the atlantic high and open up a hole for her to slide through. See here: http://weather.unisy...=n5&inv=0&t=cur the 500mb and compare it to 24 hours ago. Watch the large atlantic high get smaller. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I dont know Ed, that doesnt seem too far fetched to me considering the improvement we have seen this morning. Thank god you don't forecast then. 85 mph into homestead is a wishcast pure and simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 The discussion on the GFS and Euro is fascinating in how they both lose Emily near Hispañola. I'm more curious, though, to see if this is just a fluke with Emily being disorganized... with both picking Emily back up once her reorganization is complete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Thank god you don't forecast then. 85 mph into homestead is a wishcast pure and simple. 70 mph seems possible, minimal Hurricane strength hmm? Not too far off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Thank god you don't forecast then. 85 mph into homestead is a wishcast pure and simple. Thank god your posting in this thread is a rare event. Go troll someone else, you look absurd chasing people around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 With the recent better convection around the center, but like i said its more just a guess for fun. Maybe you should post less an read more...guesses for fun just clog things up and add very little value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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