phil882 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Most recent microwave suggests the circulation might be near 15N 63W. That places it closer to the deep convection that has been recently fireing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 As long as we're playing "Pin the Center on the Cyclone", the system is third-rate crap. Just sayin'. I know it's unlike me to be so negative Re: a prospect like this-- and I don't mean to be the buzzkiller here-- but after four of these total turds, I'm just getting way over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 As long as we're playing "Pin the Center on the Cyclone", the system is third-rate crap. Just sayin'. I know it's unlike me to be so negative Re: a prospect like this-- and I don't mean to be the buzzkiller here-- but after four of these total turds, I'm just getting way over it. If we did not have satellite technology, I highly doubt most of the systems this year would have been classified. They've been absolutely mediocre and Emily is no exception. Those holding out hope for an East Coast landfall should be acquainted with Hispaniola. am19psu EDIT: While I laughed at the Heathers quote, probably not appropriate for the weather side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Wouldn't that be something if Emily moves south of Hispaniola..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 FWIW, the 5 am EDT package shows a strong TS missing FL to the E and threatening SC by Day 5. The Discussion is full of complexity and fail: shear, dry air, potential land interaction, unclear center, blah blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 FWIW, the 5 am EDT package shows a strong TS missing FL to the E and threatening SC by Day 5. The Discussion is full of complexity and fail: shear, dry air, potential land interaction, unclear center, blah blah. Unclear center should cheer you up, Josh. It could be underneath the blob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 http://philstropical...ghly-uncertain/ Here is my first forecast for Emily, along with the discussion above. Needless to say I am also pessimistic with the forecast, as Emily might already be under the most favorable environment it has during its lifetime. As the upper level trough to its north shifts westward it will cutoff into an upper level low and likely produce significant southwesterly shear if Emily moves too quickly. Considering the mid-level circulation and low level circulation are still not vertically aligned, I am leaning towards this solution, which peaks Emily early but does not allow Emily to survive the impact of Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Just got done deleting all of the nonsense from last night. I can't be here 24/7 guys, try to stay on topic in the overnight shift, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 The other thing to notice from the soundings CUMet posted last night was the brisk low level flow. Strong low level easterlies from the SAL to the north were another feature that helped Erica (2009) shear out. I really like that as an analog. Good work, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 http://philstropical...ghly-uncertain/ Here is my first forecast for Emily, along with the discussion above. Needless to say I am also pessimistic with the forecast, as Emily might already be under the most favorable environment it has during its lifetime. As the upper level trough to its north shifts westward it will cutoff into an upper level low and likely produce significant southwesterly shear if Emily moves too quickly. Considering the mid-level circulation and low level circulation are still not vertically aligned, I am leaning towards this solution, which peaks Emily early but does not allow Emily to survive the impact of Hispaniola. makes sense. wonder if we see this end up splitting with the mid-levels heading on toward the bahamas and some pos llc staying south of the islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 The 00z SHIPS initialization diagnosed the 850-200 mb shear as only 6 kt from the SE, and the CIMSS shear analysis is from the west at 5-10 kt, which isn't too bad either. However, the convective pattern is highly suggestive of a sheared storm, with intense convection breaking out east of the center and staying on that quadrant. I think what's happening is that there is shear in the 850-300 mb layer that is being missed by the traditional shear diagnostics. There are northwesterly winds at around 10 kt in the 250-350 mb layer being picked up by the 00z soundings in PR and Saint Maarten, to the NW and N of the storm respectively: A similar situation happened with Erika in 2009, where all of the traditional 850-200 mb shear metrics showed low shear, but the convection kept being displaced from the center. Clearly, this is not a very favorable environment for intensification. In light of this, I'm not sure if this will survive Hispaniola, and it frankly may not even make it there as a TC. 5 am disco mentioned this very thing. Good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 5 am disco mentioned this very thing. Good call. But then ignored it when they used LGEM for the intensity forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 If the 5 AM NHC tracks pans out then Emily is looking at 12 hours over those mountains of Hispaniola. If the track is north of the 5 AM track it is longer Hispaniola and basically your typical TC shredder. Now if the track is south of the 5 AM track she might have a fighting chance. The next 12 hours of tracking should give a good hint of what her ultimate interaction with Hispanshedder is. Stay due West the next 12 hours and I believe it will be either the current projected path or south of it. Movement to the NW over the next 12 hours and it will be this track or north of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 But then ignored it when they used LGEM for the intensity forecast... The 50 knots before Hispaniola, you think it is too high because of the globals? You're closer to the GFDL, near steady state? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 The 50 knots before Hispaniola, you think it is too high because of the globals? You're closer to the GFDL, near steady state? I have it as a depression tomorrow then an open wave through landfall in S FL on Friday night/Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/graphics/al05/loop_5W.shtml Studying the Archive of the NHC track it does appear that they had expected a NW turn by now in the older projections. Emily has been progressing just north 15N. If she remains one her current course past 67W I think she has a shot at grazing or perhaps missing Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Recon Decoded Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 11:43Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305) Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2011 Storm Name: Emily (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 5 Observation Number: 04 A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 11:16:10Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°19'N 63°28'W (15.3167N 63.4667W) (View map) B. Center Fix Location: 274 miles (442 km) to the SE (141°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA). C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 68 nautical miles (78 statute miles) to the NNW (331°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 84° at 36kts (From the E at ~ 41.4mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 99 nautical miles (114 statute miles) to the N (360°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg) - Extrapolated I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 306m (1,004ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 308m (1,010ft) K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 36kts (~ 41.4mph) in the north quadrant at 10:38:40Z Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet Maximum Flight Level Temp: 25°C (77°F) which was observed 74 nautical miles (85 statute miles) to the NNW (338°) from the flight level center Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... WEAK RADAR PRESENTATION http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 The 50 knots before Hispaniola, you think it is too high because of the globals? You're closer to the GFDL, near steady state? Just to clarify my position, the shear in the LGEM is the 850-200mb vector, which as has been discussed is not the relevant vector to look at. I dismissed all of the stat guidance and went with global model trends for my forecast this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 A question to the pros... Does Emily or her remains look to have a high impact on South Carolina coast late weekend / early next week? Percentage odds would be appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 A question to the pros... Does Emily or her remains look to have a high impact on South Carolina coast late weekend / early next week? Percentage odds would be appreciated. 3-6" are likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 A question to the pros... Does Emily or her remains look to have a high impact on South Carolina coast late weekend / early next week? Percentage odds would be appreciated. A high impact seems nearly impossible. If it does affect SC, it would be as weak remnants that would produce nothing more than scattered, heavy showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 A high impact seems nearly impossible. If it does affect SC, it would be as weak remnants that would produce nothing more than scattered, heavy showers. Thank you for taking the time to answer my question. Have a good day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 This page from HPC showing possible rainfall analogs... http://origin.hpc.nc.../web/EMILY.html ...has been indicating a slow drop in the percentage of lower 48 landfalls from storms in Emily's current location. Yesterday, about 1/3 of the matched storms (which is since 1951) hit the lower 48. Now, it's under 1/4. And yes, Erika 2009 and Jerry 2001 have been matching fairly high on the list. It uses as matches storms within 2 degrees latitude or longitude of a storm's current location, the storm's size based on ROCI, and its forward motion to determine matches. Storm strength is not considered relevant since rainfall magnitude is virtually uncorrelated with TC strength. I haven't checked myself, but someone with some PERL know-how could run HURDAT or the EBTD through a script to see how many systems moving this quick in the eastern Caribbean (around 15 knots) have actually survived the Caribbean/Greater Antilles/Bahamas. My impression is "not many". If this 8 am advisory slow down is for real, Emily could shear less and probably survive the interaction with Hispaniola, should it strike the island. The other thing to notice from the soundings CUMet posted last night was the brisk low level flow. Strong low level easterlies from the SAL to the north were another feature that helped Erica (2009) shear out. I really like that as an analog. Good work, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 This page from HPC showing possible rainfall analogs... http://origin.hpc.nc.../web/EMILY.html ...has been indicating a slow drop in the percentage of lower 48 landfalls from storms in Emily's current location. Yesterday, about 1/3 of the matched storms (which is since 1951) hit the lower 48. Now, it's under 1/4. And yes, Erika 2009 and Jerry 2001 have been matching fairly high on the list. It uses as matches storms within 2 degrees latitude or longitude of a storm's current location, the storm's size based on ROCI, and its forward motion to determine matches. Storm strength is not considered relevant since rainfall magnitude is virtually uncorrelated with TC strength. I haven't checked myself, but someone with some PERL know-how could run HURDAT or the EBTD through a script to see how many systems moving this quick in the eastern Caribbean have actually survived the Caribbean/Greater Antilles/Bahamas. My impression is "not many". It seems to my aging memory that weak TC's fare better with Hispanola than stronger ones once past the island, and (re)generate more quickly. True? Also, any weak TC approaching Florida will have additional dry air entrainment issues to deal with. Not a pretty picture for Emily. Maybe she'll be a good rain producer in the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 2, 2011 Author Share Posted August 2, 2011 RECON data suggests the LLC is beginning to slow down. The deep convective feature, while displaced to the E, appears to be lining up with the surface circulation that has been fighting some low level shear. It will be interesting to see if Emily can become a bit better vertically stacked and begin a strengthening process. Time will tell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Overall satellite presentation looks better. If Emily slows down we coud see some intensification. What an interesting storm to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Overall satellite presentation looks better. If Emily slows down we coud see some intensification. What an interesting storm to track. Emily has slowed down per 8:00 AM advisory and still no sign of the NW turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 It is nice to see Emily to begin realigning herself. Will be interesting to see if she can hold off the dry air and begin to slowly intensify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 MW still shows a disorganized storm, but the convection is closer to the center, no doubt...and the latest burst of convection looks like it's just east of the center. Probably the NW shear has diminished some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 6Z GFDL says Emily does survive Hispaniola, and deepens from 1005 mb exiting Hispaniola to 982 mb over the Bahamas before a slow filling trend and recurve, so I'm assuming the GFDL forecasts generally favorable conditions once North of the G. Antilles. Initialized with a 1004 mb low which would be about 1003 mb by now, not quite what the recon showed, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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