jrips27 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 1100 PM AST MON AUG 01 2011 ...EMILY CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 62.9W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF DOMINICA ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICA * GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...AND ANTIGUA * HAITI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaydog Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Coming from a guy who works in news, weather stories equal ratings. Trust me! I'm vacationing in Myrtle beach all week. Will be interesting to see if the local news starts to play anything up here. Either way would like to get some waves outta this thing here before the weeks up but I think it will be too soon. As a met in Myrtle, I'll be interested in your thoughts on how we cover this tonight. I know my station is leading with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I'm getting the impression from the Discussion that the Day-5 forecast is really just a compromise in a spectrum of possible outcomes-- a midpoint and nothing more. Take it with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Just looking at the tends tonight on both microwave and radar, Emily is not becoming better organized and may decouple again like it did earlier this morning. Microwave imagery suggests that Emily is still ingesting dry air from the north that is limiting convection on it's western flank. Agreed, I think the current position is false and the new forming center (LLC or MLC) might be near the island of Martinique. Antillies Radar shows a nice blob of convective precipitation there and maybe some slow turning over the hour loop that is provided. I believe we are going to have to shift the models again, this time more to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 General WNW motion for about 2 days with a gradual turn to the NW near the Haitian coast. All models are east ATT, however, I believe the relatively fast forward speed of Emily may be underplayed by models, wrt the degree of turning to the NW. Also, the massive heat ridge over the center of the country will once again flex it's muscle a bit further to the east than current progs would indicate, thus a little less of a poleward vector near the FL straits vs. models/NHC. Land interaction will be key to intensity as it traverses NW'ward. Enough interaction with Haiti should preclude Emily from rapid intensification, and a subsequent trip over E. Cuba, will kick her just as she is getting up from Haiti's slap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 General WNW motion for about 2 days with a gradual turn to the NW near the Haitian coast. All models are east ATT, however, I believe the relatively fast forward speed of Emily may be underplayed by models, wrt the degree of turning to the NW. Also, the massive heat ridge over the center of the country will once again flex it's muscle a bit further to the east than current progs would indicate, thus a little less polward vector near the FL straits vs. models/NHC. Land interaction will be key to intensity as it traverses NW'ward. Enough interaction with Haiti should preclude Emily from rapid intensification, and a subsequent trip over E. Cuba, will kick her just as she is getting up from Haiti's slap. Cool, thanks. I was looking forward to your outlook. As you pointed out, your track forecast for Don was pretty good. Re: intensity... Can you imagine how much easier all of this would be without Cuba and Shredderola there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Cool, thanks. I was looking forward to your outlook. As you pointed out, your track forecast for Don was pretty good. Re: intensity... Can you imagine how much easier all of this would be without Cuba and Shredderola there? I suspect that Florida would only be a panhandle, if you are talking that they NEVER existed! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I suspect that Florida would only be a panhandle, if you are talking that they NEVER existed! LOL! Yeah, FL would not exist in its current state without what essentially amounts to two enormous barrier islands protecting it to the S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 General WNW motion for about 2 days with a gradual turn to the NW near the Haitian coast. All models are east ATT, however, I believe the relatively fast forward speed of Emily may be underplayed by models, wrt the degree of turning to the NW. Also, the massive heat ridge over the center of the country will once again flex it's muscle a bit further to the east than current progs would indicate, thus a little less of a poleward vector near the FL straits vs. models/NHC. Land interaction will be key to intensity as it traverses NW'ward. Enough interaction with Haiti should preclude Emily from rapid intensification, and a subsequent trip over E. Cuba, will kick her just as she is getting up from Haiti's slap. nice work LEK! i like your track and concur i would bias westward as you have done.....not that i am an expert lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 nice work LEK! i like your track and concur i would bias westward as you have done.....not that i am an expert lol! icebreaker5221 made a very similar call just past noon today albeit an amateur one, but, almost the same exact track through and or just south of the FL Keys. Very interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 There is my track, and here's a short evening disco. As Emily continues to get its act together this evening in an increasingly favorable environment, expect strengthening to occur up until the storm reaches Hispaniola and its associated mountains. The landmass will help to temporarily disrupt the center of circulation and bring a small weakening phase to Emily. After Hispaniola though, Emily will re-emerge into favorable upper level conditions and warm ocean waters which will aid in steady to perhaps somewhat rapid strengthening as the storm could began to take a northward turn. There obviously remains uncertainty in the track, however the intensity will be on the increase up until a Dominican landfall, and once again after it emerges into the Southwestern Atlantic. Steering currents should then aid to turn the storm more so to the north once more as the storm could be turned at the edge of an Eastern US ridge giving the country heat for the past few weeks. All things considered, it seems a high possibility we will have our first hurricane of the 2011 season on our hands. Stay tuned for more info, DISCLAIMER this is not an NWS affiliated product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 This isn't nearly interesting enough for me to start posting them every 15 minutes or anything, but here's a little eye candy for everyone tonight: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 2, 2011 Author Share Posted August 2, 2011 There has been some discussion about dry air intrusion. It appears Emily is shaking off that problem as time goes by… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Emily is looking pretty good, and is a decent sized system overall. Will be a fun one to track this week. Local news is already mentioning it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Looks like Emily passed thru the Herbert box. Thoughts? or is this useless? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Emily is looking pretty good, and is a decent sized system overall. Will be a fun one to track this week. Local news is already mentioning it. Hey Southern Snow.. let's hope we can at least get some rain out of this in Charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Hey Southern Snow.. let's hope we can at least get some rain out of this in Charleston. Yea, even a brush by emily would do wonders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 The media shouldn't get too pumped. Big hurricane landfalls in and around JAX are exceedingly rare. The last significant one was Dora 1964, and I have my doubts it was even a Cat 2. The media there probably got plenty pumped up for both Frances and Jeanne in '04. In most places in the country, just the prospect of sustained TS winds is plenty enough to lead the evening news a day or two beforehand. 5 days ahead for a minimal tropical storm, though, is probably tilted more towards the 'hype' side than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Hey Southern Snow.. let's hope we can at least get some rain out of this in Charleston. Rain in Goose Creek SC ? That doesnt happen anymore.. I would be thrilled to see a rain droplet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I got offered to stay in Homestead at my Sister-in-laws house for the storm if I choose to. They will ride out what may come if it remains relatively weak. They typically start thinking about leaving once a storm gets to around Cat 2. Either way they invited me to stay if they are there or not. I may take the opportunity if it appears they will get some action, been looking to chase a hurricane this year. Emily might afford me that chance in a place where I can take shelter other than a hotel room. About a two hundred dollar flight and free room and board, can't really beat that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Please god allow this to make baltimores weather cooler any way possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Please god allow this to make baltimores weather cooler any way possible. I dont think god made it here from Eastern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 0z GFS has a very weak initialization... that will make it shift way left vs the 18z gfs run, I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 0z GFS has a very weak initialization... that will make it shift way left vs the 18z gfs run, I think Eh, I'm not sure about "way" left considering the GFS' seemingly inherent right bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Wow, this is a hard storm to figure out- the GFS, which was the earliest model to really say this would be a storm, now has nothing but an open wave through 54 hours. This barely was a storm before crossing the Islands, so the John Hope rule is iffy in this case. The sat pics have a large general circulation which usually says to me that a system will develop. Bottom line- at this point I am somewhat baffled. I think that this will at least threaten FL- but how strong? Difficult to say right now, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calamity Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Emily reminds me so much of Ernesto right now. Similar path, most likely similar intensity, and similar struggling storm. I'm not saying it will make landfall along the East Coast, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Is the Center reforming right underneath the explosion of -80C cloud tops a possibility tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Is the Center reforming right underneath the explosion of -80C cloud tops a possibility tonight? Latest TMI MW image shows a distinct LLC well removed from the coldest cloud tops... A relocation soon is a low chance event, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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