2010 extreme Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 17 mph is pretty much hauling ass at this latitude right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 17 mph is pretty much hauling ass at this latitude right? It's brisk but not unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I am certainly siding with the Euro moreso on this one. I'm finding it extremely difficult to go against it, especially in situations like these considering its recent track history. I'll have to lean with just slightly stronger than the Euro, and a tip more north as a somewhat decent solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 17 mph is pretty much hauling ass at this latitude right? I'd consider 26+ to be "hauling ass"... Particularly if we are starting to consider easterly shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Can someone please help me find the center or centers of Emily on this image. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Why would that be? Because of the uncertainty @ day 4+ (mean track error)? Then you would have hated the 20th century, because day 5 mean track error is at 72 hrs late 90s level. Because tonight the public in Florida will see this and automatically think about either evacuations or runs on the supermarket especially when they see the 'H' along the coastline in five days time. This is especially true in a rather nascent system when the errors will be larger than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Because tonight the public in Florida will see this and automatically think about either evacuations or runs on the supermarket especially when they see the 'H' along the coastline in five days time. This is especially true in a rather nascent system when the errors will be larger than normal. I posted this earlier today, but here you go again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I posted this earlier today, but here you go again... I know, but I pointed this out last year, I would like to know the errors for systems in their nascent stages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 It's certainly greater for systems that have yet to be classified a tropical cyclone, or whose seedling doesn't even exist yet. I performed a verification of this sort for systems in 2006, and the errors for Day 3 for the systems for systems forecasted to be a low pressure center which did become tropical cyclones were close to 500 nm...with Day 7 error close to 900 nm. Alberto warped the verification stats that year (it was anticipated to go through the Bay of Campeche and recurved instead...oops). It would be interesting to see if the errors for 2007-2010 have come down...I think they have since the National Centers have started using ECMWF/GEFS/Canadian ensemble low clustering as part of the forecasting scheme. In years where systems mostly go east to west without much recurvature, errors would be small even if the models hadn't improved. So far in 2011, the errors (particularly for Arlene) have been much smaller, out to 7 days. Arlene's errors were under 200 nm through day 7...at times under 100 nm. The errors for Bret or Cindy are larger...it is unclear which we were forecasting for during the medium range period since at one point the two low pressure centers were fairly close together. I know, but I pointed this out last year, I would like to know the errors for systems in their nascent stages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 t is unclear which we were forecasting for during the medium range period since at one point the two low pressure centers were fairly close together. The first track I put out for Bret actually started following Cindy at the Day 3 point. Whoops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I know, but I pointed this out last year, I would like to know the errors for systems in their nascent stages. The NHC is constantly reminding the public Re: error and uncertainty. I don't see why they should avoid issuing what have been excellent (and steadily improving) track forecasts because some people are dumb and misinterpret the forecast maps. That makes no sense-- as all of the people who do understand the uncertainty find the forecasts useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 00Z Synops obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Remember this thing has to survive Hispaniola first (assuming that is the track it takes). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Anyone know why they cancelled the gulfstream flight? 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT. B. A G-IV MISSION FOR 04/0000Z 3. REMARK: G-IV MISSION FOR 02/0000Z CANCELED AT 01/1400Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 The NHC is constantly reminding the public Re: error and uncertainty. I don't see why they should avoid issuing what have been excellent (and steadily improving) track forecasts because some people are dumb and misinterpret the forecast maps. That makes no sense-- as all of the people who do understand the uncertainty find the forecasts useful. I could never understand why any weather enthusiast, or even any member of the general public, would desire less information rather than more. I remember several years ago, some people on Eastern were opining that Area Forecast Discussions should be off-limits to the public eye. The yearning to be kept in the dark about what forecasters are thinking didn't make sense to me then, and it doesn't make sense now. It's a bad instinct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 2, 2011 Author Share Posted August 2, 2011 I could never understand why any weather enthusiast, or even any member of the general public, would desire less information rather than more. I remember several years ago, some people on Eastern were opining that Area Forecast Discussions should be off-limits to the public eye. The yearning to be kept in the dark about what forecasters are thinking didn't make sense to me then, and it doesn't make sense now. It's a bad instinct. I strongly agree. Just wait until those 7 day forecasts arrive from the NHC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 In regards to the position of the initialization point on the 0z model runs.. I'm wondering if it is in the right location based on the radar data I'm seeing from the Antellies. Thoughts? Comments? Antillies Radar (French) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southland Wx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Media already pumping this up a bit...here in Jacksonville. Interestingly, I was looking this morning at historical analogs, and the models seem to be indicating this. Thinking we either a.) brush the Keys and come in near the Big Bend, passing NW of JAX and offshore south of Charleston, b.) go up the spine of the Peninsula and out somewhere between St. Augustine and Savannah, or c.) menace offshore off Palm Beach, stall, and get picked up out to sea middle of next week. There's a lot at play here, so we'll see, and there are other options on the table. Just to be safe (because JAX is so incredibly likely to be hit by this ), my wife and I put together a rough 'cane kit and have a plan in place if need be. If anything, it's gotten us prepared for if a biggum decides to come at us one day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Media already pumping this up a bit...here in Jacksonville. Interestingly, I was looking this morning at historical analogs, and the models seem to be indicating this. Thinking we either a.) brush the Keys and come in near the Big Bend, passing NW of JAX and offshore south of Charleston, b.) go up the spine of the Peninsula and out somewhere between St. Augustine and Savannah, or c.) menace offshore off Palm Beach, stall, and get picked up out to sea middle of next week. There's a lot at play here, so we'll see, and there are other options on the table. Just to be safe (because JAX is so incredibly likely to be hit by this ), my wife and I put together a rough 'cane kit and have a plan in place if need be. If anything, it's gotten us prepared for if a biggum decides to come at us one day. What scenario out of your 3 would you give the most likelihood to right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPFLL Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Because tonight the public in Florida will see this and automatically think about either evacuations or runs on the supermarket especially when they see the 'H' along the coastline in five days time. This is especially true in a rather nascent system when the errors will be larger than normal. meh, we've been through this before and besides we always wait to the last minute anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southland Wx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 What scenario out of your 3 would you give the most likelihood to right now? If it survives Hispaniola to begin with, probably the stall and scoot © scenario. I need to look more closely tomorrow, and hopefully with models that actually have a center of circulation resolved finally. The interaction with this ridge will be interesting. Either way, I don't see this becoming a major storm (Cat 1 max)...there's just too much in the way right now. But, in terms of historical analogs for storms in July/Aug/Sep that had genesis near where Emily formed, those three were the most plausible solutions from what I could gather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Coming from a guy who works in news, weather stories equal ratings. Trust me! I'm vacationing in Myrtle beach all week. Will be interesting to see if the local news starts to play anything up here. Either way would like to get some waves outta this thing here before the weeks up but I think it will be too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Media already pumping this up a bit...here in Jacksonville. Interestingly, I was looking this morning at historical analogs, and the models seem to be indicating this. Thinking we either a.) brush the Keys and come in near the Big Bend, passing NW of JAX and offshore south of Charleston, b.) go up the spine of the Peninsula and out somewhere between St. Augustine and Savannah, or c.) menace offshore off Palm Beach, stall, and get picked up out to sea middle of next week. There's a lot at play here, so we'll see, and there are other options on the table. Just to be safe (because JAX is so incredibly likely to be hit by this ), my wife and I put together a rough 'cane kit and have a plan in place if need be. If anything, it's gotten us prepared for if a biggum decides to come at us one day. The media shouldn't get too pumped. Big hurricane landfalls in and around JAX are exceedingly rare. The last significant one was Dora 1964, and I have my doubts it was even a Cat 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 The media shouldn't get too pumped. Big hurricane landfalls in and around JAX are exceedingly rare. The last significant one was Dora 1964, and I have my doubts it was even a Cat 2. Yeah, that's why they jonesin big time here. I'm sure no one with any sense wants to see a big cane strike their back yard. I saw friends houses demolished by Andrew. But I'm willing to bet the folks in the newsrooms would be more than pleased to have one just give us a nice little brush. Close enough to give some big ratings but no real damage done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Yeah, that's why they jonesin big time here. I'm sure no one with any sense wants to see a big cane strike their back yard. I saw friends houses demolished by Andrew. But I'm willing to bet the folks in the newsrooms would be more than pleased to have one just give us a nice little brush. Close enough to give some big ratings but no real damage done. Sorry to got OT, but did you just move there-- or have you always been there? I feel like you were somewhere else. P.S. Agree with you post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Sorry to got OT, but did you just move there-- or have you always been there? I feel like you were somewhere else. P.S. Agree with you post. You right. Were in New York for a long while but been down here for about a year now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Just looking at the tends tonight on both microwave and radar, Emily is not becoming better organized and may decouple again like it did earlier this morning. Microwave imagery suggests that Emily is still ingesting dry air from the north that is limiting convection on it's western flank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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