lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Cheers to Emily! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Thank You. Looking forward to reading from all the mets and knowledgeable enthusiast about this TC and the rest that are to follow this season. If you want to be more than enthusiast and learn more, all I can say is, study hard in Math, Physics, and Science, and then pick a good school like one of the Suny schools in Ny, Lyndon State, and possibly Penn State if you like big college campus's. But do not go to West Conn. State lol. My two cents! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Interesting Day 5 forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 From the discussion... THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 275/15. EMILY IS CURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS RIDGE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD ALLOW EMILY TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN A LITTLE IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS ON WHAT SHAPE EMILY IS IN AFTER IT MOVES PAST HISPANIOLA AND HOW MUCH THE RIDGE RE-BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING A WEAKER CYCLONE FARTHEST TO THE WEST SHOWING A TRACK NEAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA...WHILE THE GFDL AND THE NEW 18Z GFS ARE FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT WITH A TRACK NEAR OR EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE WESTERLY INITIAL MOTION AND LIES CLOSE TO THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BEYOND THAT TIME. GIVEN THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE LATE IN THE PERIOD...THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT THE AVERAGE ERROR OF THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ABOUT 250 MILES AT 5 DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 If you want to be more than enthusiast and learn more, all I can say is, study hard in Math, Physics, and Science, and then pick a good school like one of the Suny schools in Ny, Lyndon State, and possibly Penn State if you like big college campus's. But do not go to West Conn. State lol. My two cents! Starting my senior year of high school this year. Oswego is where I've wanted to go for a while. Love the lake effect NY has to offer , but after I get my degree I want to move to the Sierra Neveda, particuarly around the Truckee area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Starting my senior year of high school this year. Oswego is where I've wanted to go for a while. Love the lake effect NY has to offer , but after I get my degree I want to move to the Sierra Neveda, particuarly around the Truckee area. There's some wacky professors at Suny Oswego, just make sure that is really where you want to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 No need to be smart. I'm only a 16 year old weather enthusiast. I don't know half as much as the people on here about TC and I'm not going to pretend I do which is why I was just posting a satellite image (which I thought had value) stating that the Invest is looking better than it was earlier. Sorry. You did nothing wrong. That person smarted off to me by using an earlier concern of mine, then tried to legitimize it by asking me to finish it in PM - absurd, childish, ultimately someone using this site for something other than its intent. The issue is with moderation, not you; have trust they'll catch up with that individual, give it time.. Your image was useful in that it nicely captured the early stages of what is probably going to be this system's most successful run up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 There's some wacky professors at Suny Oswego, just make sure that is really where you want to go! If it's okay with you can I PM you to continue this discussion but not on the Tropical threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 TROPICAL STORM EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 745 PM AST MON AUG 01 2011 AT 745 PM AST...2345 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Meh…I doubt that day 5 position will remain the same. GFS went east at 18Z. I imagine the 00Z model runs will be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Interesting Day 5 forecast. a very shaky discussion..and rightfully so..Strong wording in the sense that they are not confident at all in their intensity and track forecast. There are so many factors at play and they just named it so they have plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 You did nothing wrong. That person smarted off to me by using an earlier concern of mine, then tried to legitimize it by asking me to finish it in PM - absurd, childish, ultimately someone using this site for something other than its intent. The issue is with moderation, not you; have trust they'll catch up with that individual, give it time.. Your image was useful in that it nicely captured the early stages of what is probably going to be this system's most successful run up. Thank you. Here's the link from where I get the images if anyone else wants to get them for themselves.http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 It's amazing to see that mid level vortex fill so fast... 1.5 hours, gone - well, by IR imagery anyway. Pretty impressive decay rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I don't know what the recon reports were on Don but I did check many ground stations and buoys...and never found any wind better than 24kts. Might it be that what's seen from above does not necessarily reflect what's at the surface? Is it possible that some of the abysmal named storms we've seen over the years are not really storms at the surface? Lots of storms never have surface obs that come close to their operational intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 a very shaky discussion..and rightfully so..Strong wording in the sense that they are not confident at all in their intensity and track forecast. There are so many factors at play and they just named it so they have plenty of time. The UKMET, for example, has a 594 decameter ridge wall developing over the SE states and adjacent Atl ocean areas as near as D5, and that would prevent a polarward motion if that succeeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Meh…I doubt that day 5 position will remain the same. GFS went east at 18Z. I imagine the 00Z model runs will be very interesting. Well, of course. Dude, the Day-5 position never remains the same-- forecasting hasn't reached that level of precision yet. The takeaway here is not that Fort Lauderdale will face a hurricane by Day 5-- it's that there's a general, long-term, vague threat to the SE USA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 If it's okay with you can I PM you to continue this discussion but not on the Tropical threads. yea sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 And Recon is pulling out, did an awesome job today, they've been up there for more than 8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Well, of course. Dude, the Day-5 position never remains the same-- forecasting hasn't reached that level of precision yet. The takeaway here is not that Fort Lauderdale will face a hurricane by Day 5-- it's that there's a general, long-term, vague threat to the SE USA. I may be alone, but I hate the fact that NOAA went from a three day to a five day hurricane track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plowable Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 All I know is all the locals down here been mumbling all summer that they feel uneasy about this summer with the water heating up faster then in yrs past and the heat . It's funny even tho this thing is anybodys guess as to the ultimate track how everyone down here myself included have taken an interest in it at such an early stage. Keep up the chit chat guys this thread is a wealth of information and i'm learning so much with each page I read.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 From the discussion... THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 275/15. EMILY IS CURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS RIDGE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD ALLOW EMILY TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN A LITTLE IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS ON WHAT SHAPE EMILY IS IN AFTER IT MOVES PAST HISPANIOLA AND HOW MUCH THE RIDGE RE-BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING A WEAKER CYCLONE FARTHEST TO THE WEST SHOWING A TRACK NEAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA...WHILE THE GFDL AND THE NEW 18Z GFS ARE FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT WITH A TRACK NEAR OR EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE WESTERLY INITIAL MOTION AND LIES CLOSE TO THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BEYOND THAT TIME. GIVEN THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE LATE IN THE PERIOD...THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT THE AVERAGE ERROR OF THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ABOUT 250 MILES AT 5 DAYS. Meh…I doubt that day 5 position will remain the same. GFS went east at 18Z. I imagine the 00Z model runs will be very interesting. I'm wondering about the track right now... the ultimate thing about it all will be how close it gets to Hispaniola and what the mountains on that island do to the system. Emily is looking better, even with the dry air to the north of the system. I'll be interested in seeing how this looks tomorrow morning and how much latitude it gains. Right now it is moving west at 17 mph, but if it wants to go through Hispaniola, it needs to start its northward turn within the next 12 hours. Like HurricaneFrances04 said, it will be interesting to see what the 00Z models do with this system. I have a gut feeling that they will be a little more west, but with the uncertainty the NHC has with the initial forward speed, it may not be until 06 or 12Z until the models really lock in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I may be alone, but I hate the fact that NOAA went from a three day to a five day hurricane track. Why would that be? Because of the uncertainty @ day 4+ (mean track error)? Then you would have hated the 20th century, because day 5 mean track error is at 72 hrs late 90s level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I may be alone, but I hate the fact that NOAA went from a three day to a five day hurricane track. You're alone. Track forecasting has been improving steadily, and while of course they don't get the 5-day positions exactly right, on the average they get them fairly close-- and the information is valuable. They don't have to hit it exactly for the forecasts to be useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 WATCH OUT FOR STORM_FULLNAME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plowable Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Oh yeah hey Josh if this thing comes to fruition and by chance comes our way hit me up live 1/4 mile from beach can give you a base of operations and some cold Margarita's to go with it if your so inclined to chase a east coast storm..... You're alone. Track forecasting has been improving steadily, and while of course they don't get the 5-day positions exactly right, on the average they get them fairly close-- and the information is valuable. They don't have to hit it exactly for the forecasts to be useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I focus too much on the center of the cone. I guess its because of people like me the NHC got rid of the line. And of course forecasting has gotten really good, and its pretty likely that Emily will be somewhere inside the cone come day 5. 18Z HWRF doesn't show Emily slowly approaching Central Florida coast…recurves instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 18Z HWRF gets close to NC but still recurves offshore. Gonna be interesting to see what the far left models do tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 The preferred medium range mid-level height forecast posted at... http://www.hpc.ncep....fcst500_wbg.gif ...implies that if the system stayed in the Caribbean south of the Greater Antilles that it would continue westward. If were to end up north of the Greater Antilles, it could make a sharp recurvature due to the broadness of the mid-level trough indicated near the East coast, which would lead to an increasingly narrow subtropical ridge to Emily's north. Within the 00z global ensemble members of the ECMWF and GEFS from Friday and Saturday night...probabilities for a favorable environment (deep-layered moisture and vertical wind shear less than 20 knots) remained high until the system passed north of Hispaniola. Passing along the spine of Hispaniola from ESE to WNW is not as hazardous to the system's survival (e.g. Georges 1998 and Claudette 1979) as a track against the grain of the topography from south to north (e.g. Emily 1987 and David 1979). But there cannot be vertical wind shear while it traverses a significant landmass or its low level circulation won't survive much more than a day, mountains or not (see Barry 2001 for such an example over relatively flat land). In the Westerlies, it appears that the degree of troughing near and offshore the West coast will be key in determining the depth of the trough downstream near the East coast. The more amplified the troughs get, the more likely the system recurves, although with less abruptness. The two troughs are teleconnected. Even after seeing someone's plot of the GFS vorticity center and upper level winds, the upper environment may not be ideal for significant development into a mature hurricane during the short term, especially with a system moving at this clip (add 15 knots of storm-relative westerly flow aloft just due to its forward motion...people forget to do this). It could be like Don 2011 and Erika 2009 in that it experiences its best upper environment during its period of genesis, and shears persistently thereafter. The recent vertical wind shear may have led to the small low level circulation forming over the past 24 hours, but sheared systems rarely make hurricane status, though they can peak with maximum sustained winds of 50-60 knots (Alberto 2006 and Sebastian 1995). A system experiencing enough vertical wind shear traveling north of the Greater Antilles could sneak into the Gulf of Mexico, but there wouldn't be much left to it. Look to the postings during Erika 2009, or Debby 2000, for more on this type of track and storm evolution. =) The UKMET, for example, has a 594 decameter ridge wall developing over the SE states and adjacent Atl ocean areas as near as D5, and that would prevent a polarward motion if that succeeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 18Z GFDL is pathetic intensity wise, but it did shift west taking a nice little path over the mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba. Edit: Amazing what happens when you miss a f in shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 NHC track isn't that far off F**.....the storm that shall not be mentioned for being the ultimate in storm teases GFDL loses it over Hispaniola...but does next to nothing with it before then anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.