LakeEffectKing Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 No, this thread is a discussion amongst professionals and interested, informed hobbyists. None of us have a problem answering questions when they come up, but posting idiocy as fact is not something that will be allowed during busy times, such as a tropical cyclone threatening the East Coast of the U.S. He is flat out 100% wrong and he will be called out for it. I agree, stating that Don had no covection over the center is false...was it tilted? Yes, but there was certainly vertical organization which allowed for the (albeit reduced) thermogenic engine to get pressures into the 998 range..... BTW....the system is organizing nicely, IMO, now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 this looks like it will be Emily soon, the convection is now over the center it looks like according to satelite It still seems too disorganized. If the convection persists and gets more organized overnight, then I'd start to get excited about naming this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Radar almost makes me think there could be turning East of Martinique, but it is very hard to tell. Not much light left for visible, and I'm not sure I can see the low level center on satellite anymore anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Watching Recon, there is at least a decent area of west winds on the south side of the vortex, they followed NW winds from near the center (20-25kt winds around the center) down to around 13.5N, then went due east along there with generally 8-10kt winds, followed it from NW to W to SW winds at that latitude (probably faster than they should have, indicating that it likely wasn't the SE part of the vortex), before going over to light SE winds as they went farther past the center (which would be no longer a sign of the vortex at that latitude). They probably will check the center again at some point after they are done flying East, and see how the SE quad is closer to the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennyForYourThoughts Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 We have Emily!!!! BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_RENUMBER_al912011_al052011.ren FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201108012219 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennyForYourThoughts Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_RENUMBER_al912011_al052011.ren FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201108012219 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 And there's the renumber. Special Advisory on its way most likely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Interesting... but understandable decision... especially with the winds being reported as they are, and it being so close to the islands. Nevertheless, I'd still like to see that vortex become more dominant and get better vertically stacked. Until then, it will have a hard time strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Now we will finally have model plots which have a starting location. Will be interesting to see how the models shift, if any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Interesting... but understandable decision... especially with the winds being reported as they are, and it being so close to the islands. Nevertheless, I'd still like to see that vortex become more dominant and get better vertically stacked. Until then, it will have a hard time strengthening. On the pro side convection is rapidly expanding near and over the circulation center, which should have the tendency to slow down the llc and allow it to become more vertically stacked. Once that occurs, the GFS is predicting a favorable upper level pattern that would support strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 The vortex sure looks tiny when looking at it from a geostationary standpoint. However, if you think of it from a storm-relative standpoint, it does actually have pretty decent-sized circulation, it's just only closed off at the upper part in the geostationary frame, giving the illusion that the vortex is really tiny. There is a small-scale vortex in there, but it is embedded in a broader area of substantial and intensifying rotation as evidence by the enhanced low-level inflow to the south and southeast. This isn't unusual in tropical cyclones in their formative stages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 91L is still spitting out those outflow boundaries...it's kinda like my snowblower engine when i forget to easy up on the choke...what's "choking off" the tropical engine? dry air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 91L is still spitting out those outflow boundaries...it's kinda like my snowblower engine when i forget to easy up on the choke...what's "choking off" the tropical engine? dry air? Possibly, yes. I did mention this earlier in the day but it didn't seem to catch on. The Wisc.edu Saharan Air Layer analysis does show an area of dust nearby, and the WV channels at TPC satellite page also show dry air nearby ...perhaps too close for comfort. Dry air ingested would cause cool down drafting. http://tropic.ssec.w...d=splitEW&time= Additionally, dust is research to actually be a cloud inhibitor because the over-abundance of condensation nuclei is theorized to be too much of a good thing - so to speak. It's probably a combination of factors. I almost believe 91L's large size initially was not helping matters, as well. Seemed that girthy area of low pressure had more than one center vying for development and they probably interfered with one another. I am noticing that pesky mlv vortex seems to be weakening per latest looping, and as others have noted, some strong convection is trying to peel around the N side of the perceived llv swirl that spit out of the region earlier in the day. Could be a good night of come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Looking better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 91L is still spitting out those outflow boundaries...it's kinda like my snowblower engine when i forget to easy up on the choke...what's "choking off" the tropical engine? dry air? Yep... there is still quite a bit of dry air on the northern flank of this system. Hence, you see outflow boundaries that continue to emanate outward from convection towards the north as the downdrafts evaporate with the lack of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Possibly, yes. I did mention this earlier in the day but it didn't seem to catch on. The Wisc.edu Saharan Air Layer analysis does show an area of dust nearby, and the WV channels at TPC satellite page also show dry air nearby ...perhaps too close for comfort. Dry air ingested would cause cool down drafting. http://tropic.ssec.w...d=splitEW&time= It's probably a combination of factors. I almost believe 91L's large size initially was not helping matters, as well. Seemed that girthy area of low pressure had more than one center vying for development and they probably interfered with one another. I am noticing that pesky mlv vortex seems to be weakening per latest looping, and as others have noted, some strong convection is trying to peel around the N side of the perceived llv swirl that spit out of the region earlier in the day. Could be a good night of come back. Couldnt agree more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Looking better. Great analysis of the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Oh please... look at the reconnaissance reports. The first clue might be the fact that there was a circulation with west winds that were generally the max observed in the system. It was a weird structure, but there was plenty of evidence that its vortex was well defined and clear until just before it made landfall. I don't know what the recon reports were on Don but I did check many ground stations and buoys...and never found any wind better than 24kts. Might it be that what's seen from above does not necessarily reflect what's at the surface? Is it possible that some of the abysmal named storms we've seen over the years are not really storms at the surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I don't wanna be a bother, lol, but I was just wondering if 91L is on track for the Dominican Republic, when will it impact Hispaniola? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Great analysis of the situation. why is there this hostility in these tropical discussions? This post of your is actually LESS useful than the one the sarcasm it is aimed toward - not sure what the real motive is there. Aside from the matter, I appreciated the image that came along with that post - it had value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I wonder what the delay in issuing advisories is? I'd guess coordinating with various national weather services in the area, but that'd just be a guess. It does look better from an IR satellite perspective. The floater IR 2 hasn't been useful for me, anyway, since they changed the presentation, but the larger/permanent images, I still find IR2 loops the next best thing to visible during darkness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Great analysis of the situation. No need to be smart. I'm only a 16 year old weather enthusiast. I don't know half as much as the people on here about TC and I'm not going to pretend I do which is why I was just posting a satellite image (which I thought had value) stating that the Invest is looking better than it was earlier. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 No need to be smart. I'm only a 16 year old weather enthusiast. I don't know half as much as the people on here about TC and I'm not going to pretend I do which is why I was just posting a satellite image stating that the Invest is looking better than it was. Sorry. You did exactly what you should have done and provided useful information in the process. There have been a lot of idiot noobs here the past few days, you're not one of them. Keep it up and welcome to the tropical thread! David K on the other hand... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Great analysis of the situation. I can't believe he posted an image of 91L in the 91L thread. What an idiot . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I don't know what the recon reports were on Don but I did check many ground stations and buoys...and never found any wind better than 24kts. Might it be that what's seen from above does not necessarily reflect what's at the surface? Is it possible that some of the abysmal named storms we've seen over the years are not really storms at the surface? Not trying to derail this thread, but wanted to respond to this. Don was downgraded to a TD immediately prior to landfall so it isn't surprising that you didn't see any ground reports of 30+ mph winds. Also, I'm sure there has been a ridiculous amount of validation done with regard to estimating surface winds based on recon observations and dropsonde data. It isn't just a shot in the dark. For more info: GPS Dropwindsonde Wind Profiles in Hurricanes and Their Operational Implications Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 why is there this hostility in these tropical discussions? This post of your is actually LESS useful than the one the sarcasm it is aimed toward - not sure what the real motive is there. Aside from the matter, I appreciated the image that came along with that post - it had value. I almost missed your post because it was not at the top of the page. It was a compliment to the kid. If you would like to continue this you can PM me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 You did exactly what you should have done and provided useful information in the process. There have been a lot of idiot noobs here the past few days, you're not one of them. Keep it up and welcome to the tropical thread! David K on the other hand... Thank You. Looking forward to reading from all the mets and knowledgeable enthusiast about this TC and the rest that are to follow this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Emily is born BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 730 PM AST MON AUG 01 2011 ...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 62.0W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF DOMINICA ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONSTSERRAT...AND ANTIGUA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAITI. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICA * GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONSTSERRAT...AND ANTIGUA * HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES ...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT...AND APPROACH THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO BY TUESDAY AND IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY TUESDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BY TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW...AND IN HAITI BY WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Hurricane strength by Saturday. Interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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