PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Nah, the low-level cloud field has been clearly responding to the low-level vortex today, and the MCV to the east has had little influence. I would bet a lot of money that this tiny vortex is the main thing. True enough; however, I'd feel a lot better if that vortex went back under the MLV which is under the center of the anticyclone. Until then, I'm quite a bit skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Recon is going in for another pass, going due south along 61.67W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 thanks for the analysis That is the AccuWeather definition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Please remember that a certain level of organization is also required for classification. There is still some uncertainty whether or not this meets that level. Really? How was Don a storm then? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 True, but of course it never hurts to look (unless it is the NAM, of course)... and the CMC did get remarkably better (not to the point of competition of course) after the upgrade. Yep, I agree. CMC is no longer loltastic. Really? How was Don a storm then? lol Come on. The organization of Don was way better than 91L right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Really? How was Don a storm then? lol Don fell apart in the end, and was never well organized, battled dry air, but 150100 2518N 09607W 8413 01603 0150 +132 +050 254017 019 042 030 03 150130 2519N 09606W 8431 01583 0140 +142 +041 263019 020 040 017 00 150200 2520N 09605W 8421 01598 0144 +139 +033 262020 021 037 021 00 150230 2522N 09603W 8408 01606 0144 +137 +029 243021 025 044 048 03 150300 2523N 09602W 8433 01578 0137 +143 +028 249020 021 059 048 03 150330 2524N 09600W 8428 01588 0143 +137 +030 270016 022 052 031 03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 It would appear that Recon is checking out how well organized 91L is, and I seriously doubt that the NHC will do anything before hand. They have come from the North while west of the center, headed due south until getting south of the center (while bypassing the center to the west), and is now turning eastward to check out the south side of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Yep, I agree. CMC is no longer loltastic. Come on. The organization of Don was way better than 91L right now. Not by much. It never really had convection over the center either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 anyone have a link to radar out of Dominica? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Not by much. It never really had convection over the center either. You should probably stop posting if you think the organization of Don was similar to the organization of 91L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Not by much. It never really had convection over the center either. Gotta remember though that that's not all that counts - it had a better defined center IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Looks like it's going to be a fun 24hours for me in St Croix... expecting to get pounded by rain. People here are VERY hurricane conscious ever since Hugo destroyed the island. Our ship just left St Croix. We were supposed to be at sea all day today and come to St Croix on Saturday but that changed with 91L. Instead we are heading to Barbados and hope to arrive Wednesday morning. It was a gentle rock last night out of San Juan to St Croix. Captain said for us to expect 10-14 foot waves and squally weather tomorrow on the day at sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Not by much. It never really had convection over the center either. 20 knot West winds (higher Smurf, but possibly rain contaminated) and 91L is better organized than Don? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 20 knot West winds (higher Smurf, but possibly rain contaminated) and 91L is better organized than Don? When did I say it was better? Said it has just a strong winds, and the convection is displaced about the same. It is close to a tS and probably should be. NHC names more pointless things anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Really? How was Don a storm then? lol Oh please... look at the reconnaissance reports. The first clue might be the fact that there was a circulation with west winds that were generally the max observed in the system. It was a weird structure, but there was plenty of evidence that its vortex was well defined and clear until just before it made landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 and the convection is displaced about the same. . No. Not even close. First, we don't actually even know if that vortex IS the main low level center in the first place. Second, Don didn't have MLC/LLC displacement that was this terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 anyone have a link to radar out of Dominica? http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Deeper convection is getting over the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 When did I say it was better? Said it has just a strong winds, and the convection is displaced about the same. It is close to a tS and probably should be. NHC names more pointless things anyways. You should probably take a voluntary break from posting about the tropics for a while. I know I would if I were you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 http://www.meteo.fr/...nimMOSAIC2.html Wow, it's certainly not easy to pick out a circulation on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 When did I say it was better? Said it has just a strong winds, and the convection is displaced about the same. It is close to a tS and probably should be. NHC names more pointless things anyways. You need to chill, dude. Enough already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Wow, it's certainly not easy to pick out a circulation on that. If you look very closely, you can see some very weak rotation on the southern tip of Dominica, but yea... certainly not conclusive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 You should probably take a voluntary break from posting about the tropics for a while. I know I would if I were you. See i dont know what makes you guys so superior, you know what you're talking about. Sure some of his points are off, but I've heard far less accurate claims in the past. Its ridiculous that something like this should be said, its a forum to post. I'd suggest everyone check prior to posting that their points are correct, I find myself doing that to make sure now. Regardless, it is preposterous to think that all he is saying is that far off that he needs to stop posting. He is getting far less credit than he should. Don's circulation was better, and I don't know if I'd classify Emily as a TS despite good winds (from the W included), but there have been situations in the past where a storm at this stage has been classified. Beyond everything else, it is showing signs of getting its act together, whats the rush? We've waited this long, so why not wait til its accurately initiated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 You should probably take a voluntary break from posting about the tropics for a while. I know I would if I were you. Ah your right. I am a little ticked off right now from some other stuff going on. I'll just wait till this thing gets named. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 See i dont know what makes you guys so superior, you know what you're talking about. Sure some of his points are off, but I've heard far less accurate claims in the past. Its ridiculous that something like this should be said, its a forum to post. I'd suggest everyone check prior to posting that their points are correct, I find myself doing that to make sure now. Regardless, it is preposterous to think that all he is saying is that far off that he needs to stop posting. He is getting far less credit than he should. No, this thread is a discussion amongst professionals and interested, informed hobbyists. None of us have a problem answering questions when they come up, but posting idiocy as fact is not something that will be allowed during busy times, such as a tropical cyclone threatening the East Coast of the U.S. He is flat out 100% wrong and he will be called out for it. This is why we get a bad name. I have to call out one poster for nonsense and now everyone is going to think I am talking about them. Think before you post and there won't be any problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 No, this thread is a discussion amongst professionals and interested, informed hobbyists. None of us have a problem answering questions when they come up, but posting idiocy as fact is not something that will be allowed during busy times, such as a tropical cyclone threatening the East Coast of the U.S. He is flat out 100% wrong and he will be called out for it. This is why we get a bad name. I have to call out one poster for nonsense and now everyone is going to think I am talking about them. Think before you post and there won't be any problems. Why don't you just 5post ddweatherman et al? They've made the tropical threads completely unreadable & your post above is proof of how large of a problem they have become. They're just annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 No, this thread is a discussion amongst professionals and interested, informed hobbyists. None of us have a problem answering questions when they come up, but posting idiocy as fact is not something that will be allowed during busy times, such as a tropical cyclone threatening the East Coast of the U.S. He is flat out 100% wrong and he will be called out for it. This is why we get a bad name. I have to call out one poster for nonsense and now everyone is going to think I am talking about them. Think before you post and there won't be any problems. Certainly agree with that and am doing so myself, sure this could be named now but it will soon so I don't see why a matter of a few hours is a big deal. The effects will be the same on the current areas affected. Lets make sure this is worthy of Emily, which it might be, its just last second things are verifying that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 No, this thread is a discussion amongst professionals and interested, informed hobbyists. None of us have a problem answering questions when they come up, but posting idiocy as fact is not something that will be allowed during busy times, such as a tropical cyclone threatening the East Coast of the U.S. He is flat out 100% wrong and he will be called out for it. This is why we get a bad name. I have to call out one poster for nonsense and now everyone is going to think I am talking about them. Think before you post and there won't be any problems. I am wrong. It's not your fault and no one is thinking you are talking about them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 If you look very closely, you can see some very weak rotation on the southern tip of Dominica, but yea... certainly not conclusive. I have a headache from looking at that... and I think I see what you are talking about... but I see about as much rotation in that as the glob of storms to the SE of that (of which is very little and looks more or less like an artifact of the increased radar coverage and developing convection). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 this looks like it will be Emily soon, the convection is now over the center it looks like according to satelite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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