Uncle Bobby Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Wish granted? Recon headed S. BTW, I am generally only getting every-other recon messages. Anyone else seeing this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 91L is going to get one heck of a shredding... 4,000+ ft. volcanic peaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 91L is going to get one heck of a shredding... 4,000+ ft. volcanic peaks. David and Marilyn both crossed Dominica without being shredded...I think a diffuse system will be okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 91L is going to get one heck of a shredding... 4,000+ ft. volcanic peaks. Much of the cordillera in Hispaniola is over 7000 feet, and note relative sizes of the islands. Won't help it any, but 'shred' is a bit strong of a word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Lots of west winds with 15kt NW and 8kt W, extrap 1006.4, center about 15.2N 61.05W 000 URNT15 KNHC 012046 AF305 04EEA INVEST HDOB 28 20110801 203600 1517N 06058W 9756 00275 0067 +238 +213 094019 019 022 005 00 203630 1516N 06059W 9764 00266 0067 +218 +214 093015 018 038 013 03 203700 1515N 06100W 9758 00272 0066 +224 +212 101014 015 028 010 03 203730 1514N 06101W 9762 00269 0066 +222 +208 098006 010 020 006 00 203800 1513N 06102W 9759 00270 0065 +239 +206 130002 003 008 001 00 203830 1512N 06103W 9760 00270 0064 +240 +206 329001 002 008 002 00 203900 1511N 06105W 9760 00269 0064 +240 +208 316003 004 008 002 00 203930 1510N 06106W 9760 00270 0064 +240 +211 320006 007 009 001 00 204000 1509N 06107W 9764 00266 0064 +238 +214 328009 011 009 001 00 204030 1508N 06108W 9760 00271 0065 +239 +215 330013 014 009 002 00 204100 1507N 06110W 9760 00271 0066 +240 +215 329013 014 007 003 00 204130 1506N 06111W 9760 00273 0067 +239 +217 330014 015 009 002 00 204200 1505N 06112W 9760 00273 0067 +240 +219 339014 015 012 000 00 204230 1504N 06113W 9759 00275 0068 +243 +220 332013 015 /// /// 03 204300 1503N 06112W 9754 00278 0068 +236 +222 322012 012 012 002 03 204330 1503N 06110W 9757 00274 0069 +222 //// 315012 013 019 005 01 204400 1503N 06109W 9764 00268 0069 +222 +218 311011 011 026 007 00 204430 1503N 06107W 9758 00274 0068 +233 +213 299007 009 015 008 00 204500 1502N 06105W 9761 00270 0067 +226 +210 279007 008 013 002 00 204530 1502N 06104W 9763 00269 0067 +239 +207 259007 008 004 004 03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 West Winds... likely a closed circulation. Say hello to TS Emily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Much of the cordillera in Hispaniola is over 7000 feet, and note relative sizes of the islands. Won't help it any, but 'shred' is a bit strong of a word. I believe, elevation wise, Puerto Rico is a much better comparison... with that said, review how much PR weakens systems versus Hispanola... it's no contest... and Dominica is significantly smaller It won't help, but it won't hurt too much either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Bingo West winds! 204530 1502N 06104W 9763 00269 0067 +239 +207 259007 008 004 004 03 Hi Emily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I know they found some west wind and had some obs of TS strength, but this one would be exceptionally lame to name...worse than bret and cindy for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I know they found some west wind and had some obs of TS strength, but this one would be exceptionally lame to name...worse than bret and cindy for sure. Closed Circulation wise yes... but the winds support the upgrade to TS strength, and there is plenty of deep convection close to the center. Wimpy TS for sure, but you gotta start somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 That will be some short notice TS warning for Dominica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 That will be some short notice TS warning for Dominica. Hopefully they were monitoring the progress of the tropical wave anyways, and knew of the potential for a threat. I couldn't believe it, but while I was in St. Croix they actually had updates on the locations and potential for genesis of tropical waves on the radio! (not trying to imply that what is the norm for St. Croix applies for other parts of the Caribbean). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 You can see the tiny vortex on visible... its kinda remarkable how broad the system was yesterday and now it has generated this tiny vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 no VDM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 people see them...they just don't respond because you are the wx board equivalent of a thesaurus explosion and don't communicate your thoughts very well. IMO, John's posts are an extension of himself, and quite interesting and of value. Likewise with yours, such that one can discern your abrasive personality, which is equally interesting, but not sure of the value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Looks like it's going to be a fun 24hours for me in St Croix... expecting to get pounded by rain. People here are VERY hurricane conscious ever since Hugo destroyed the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 You can see the tiny vortex on visible... its kinda remarkable how broad the system was yesterday and now it has generated this tiny vortex. Yup, but it is still such a disorganized mess... I'm wondering if that vortex has the ability to remain a permanent feature? I'm betting against that due to how fast it seems to be moving away from the MLV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I know they found some west wind and had some obs of TS strength, but this one would be exceptionally lame to name...worse than bret and cindy for sure. This reminds me of a recent thread with 2 taggers arguing back and forth about warning fatigue and FAR for radar indicated tornadoes. From a purely scientific point of view, its questionable as a storm, but from a life and property point of view, upgrading and issuing watches and warnings may force the hand. Of course, if you're in a cherry'd area, and it is a minimal TS, there may not be that much of a life and property aspect, since local weather services no doubt are issuing marine warnings anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 people see them...they just don't respond because you are the wx board equivalent of a thesaurus explosion and don't communicate your thoughts very well. I doubt it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 You can see the tiny vortex on visible... its kinda remarkable how broad the system was yesterday and now it has generated this tiny vortex. i'm sticking to my guns...lame. that "deep convection" you mention is one piddly thunderstorm. Hopefully they wait to see if it persists and isn't just an eddy. I'd like to see a TS just as much as anyone else and hate to sound like Neil Frank, but this is silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Yup, but it is still such a disorganized mess... I'm wondering if that vortex has the ability to remain a permanent feature? I'm betting against that due to how fast it seems to be moving away from the MLV. Nah, the low-level cloud field has been clearly responding to the low-level vortex today, and the MCV to the east has had little influence. I would bet a lot of money that this tiny vortex is the main thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 looks like lots of convection firing north, center and east. may not look so pitiful by the morning inchallah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I'm leaning toward a southern Hispaniola track, if the location of the coc that was just found remains the primary surface reflection. My thoughts on intensity will be muted for a bit...still gun shy after The Don debacle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I am not rooting for it to do much- that way it might miss Hispaniola and get better farther west.....if it strengthens now it would only get torn apart again and also kill a lot of folks in Haiti.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 i'm sticking to my guns...lame. that "deep convection" you mention is one piddly thunderstorm. Hopefully they wait to see if it persists and isn't just an eddy. I'd like to see a TS just as much as anyone else and hate to sound like Neil Frank, but this is silly. Please tell me you aren't serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 i'm sticking to my guns...lame. that "deep convection" you mention is one piddly thunderstorm. Hopefully they wait to see if it persists and isn't just an eddy. I'd like to see a TS just as much as anyone else and hate to sound like Neil Frank, but this is silly. so neutercane at 5pm? I certainly agree that this thing still looks like crap currently, and its easy to see why. The nice anticyclone that was situated over the circulation the last few days is now displaced to the east and the circulation has ran ahead into 20-30 knot wind shear. If it can tuck under the convection and slow down tonight, it will have a shot at getting better organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Please tell me you aren't serious. I am serious. It'll be a lame technical tropical storm if it is declared immediately. Lamer than Bret and Cindy combined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I am serious. It'll be a lame technical tropical storm if it is declared immediately. Lamer than Bret and Cindy combined. Closed circulation, 45-50 MPH winds. Should be a TS. Even though it is not tell well organized yet still meets classifications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Closed circulation, 45-50 MPH winds. Should be a TS. Even though it is not tell well organized yet still meets classifications. thanks for the analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Closed circulation, 45-50 MPH winds. Should be a TS. Even though it is not tell well organized yet still meets classifications. Please remember that a certain level of organization is also required for classification. There is still some uncertainty whether or not this meets that level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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