TS Emily: 215 Miles SSE Of San Juan, PR

[Drz1111]

I'd like to see the weak scenario as Lake Okeechobee and points nearby really need to water.

Nothing wrong with a fish storm if the fish are gorgeous largemouth bass in Lake Okeechobee, that's for sure.

[Mencken_Fan]

No. They have improved it with the latest upgrade, but it still has a higher false alarm rate than any of the other global models.

Re: the Canadian; does having a high sensitivity equate to having a poor record of determining actual storms? From such logic one might say "because my smoke detector has so many false alarms, it's not likely to detect an actual fire."

The Canadian may be overly sensitive but that doesn't negate its usefulness.

[dan88]

SE to NE wind shift occurred very close to 61N, Recon is now heading due South there (starting from 15.5N) to see if there is a center so we should know shortly what shape the surface is in. Extrap pressures are lowest in this area, around 1007mb. It does not look like there was any sign of a surface low in the eastern blob, with higher pressures and nothing but SE winds (though winds were up to 43 kts at flight level at the 975mb flight level)

[am19psu]

Re: the Canadian; does having a high sensitivity equate to having a poor record of determining actual storms? From such logic one might say "because my smoke detector has so many false alarms, it's not likely to detect an actual fire."

The Canadian may be overly sensitive but that doesn't negate its usefulness.

Right, but the GFS smoke detector and European smoke detector are both way better than the Canadian smoke detector. Why use the Canadian smoke detector if it is an inferior product?

[Cheeznado]

My take on this disturbance is that it isn't doing much now and probably isn't going to organize quickly, and it's on a collision course with Hispaniola so that will slow things further. However, it may be something to watch once it gets past Hispaniola if it's still in one piece. The Bahamas and offshore waters of Florida are generally a very favorable place for a westward moving storm.

It might actually be beneficial in the end that this won't become that organized prior to Hispaniola, weaker systems seem to take the punch better.

Agree 100% if we want this to be anything of consequence for the US it needs to stay weak until it gets past the storm shredder-I just want it to get far enough west to give us some rain but that seems not terribly likely.

[CUmet]

There's a clear low-level swirl just E of Dominica on the visible, which is very close to where recon had a few N/NNW obs. This is pretty close to being closed off.

[Uncle Bobby]

Yep, Recon seems to have nailed the center. They banked hard left at 16N 61W and the data is pretty interesting right around there, including a minimum wind speed just NE of there at 3kts.

Edit: Oops..... meant 15N.

Edit 2: At 1921:30 the SFMR data stopped momentarily, which I would assume is due to the hard left turn pointing the equipment away from the sea. Cool.

[icebreaker5221]

The longer the circulation remains weak and surface based, the further west it's going to go, closer to the BAM-shallow. GFS, EC and especially the UK came in much further west. Convection is beginning to fire again, but I think it's already too late for the east track.

I'm willing to bet this thing goes south of Miami, maybe over the Keys, and makes landfall in the panhandle as a Tropical Storm. Don't really have time to draw a map right now but that's my forecast!

[Harbourton]

There's a clear low-level swirl just E of Dominica on the visible, which is very close to where recon had a few N/NNW obs. This is pretty close to being closed off.

Visable is also showing some shear coming in from the SE. ahead of 91L.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

Right, but the GFS smoke detector and European smoke detector are both way better than the Canadian smoke detector. Why use the Canadian smoke detector if it is an inferior product?

Wasn't there a storm last year that the newly-upgraded CMC nailed over the Euro and GFS? I can't remember which one it was, but I vaguely remember it happening.

In any case, of course, a consensus of global models is mostly better than looking at individual runs.

[phil882]

There's a clear low-level swirl just E of Dominica on the visible, which is very close to where recon had a few N/NNW obs. This is pretty close to being closed off.

Yep, its pretty close to being closed off. Wonder why they didn't go further south.

[am19psu]

Wasn't there a storm last year that the newly-upgraded CMC nailed over the Euro and GFS? I can't remember which one it was, but I vaguely remember it happening.

In any case, of course, a consensus of global models is mostly better than looking at individual runs.

I think it was actually in 2009 when it scored a coup with a storm, but I don't remember what it was. Even blind squirrels find nuts. GFS/Euro consensus has been the best forecast for the last year now, statistically speaking.

[am19psu]

Yep, its pretty close to being closed off. Wonder why they didn't go further south.

Indeed. I just yelled at Google Earth when the last set of HDOBs came in.

[icebreaker5221]

The longer the circulation remains weak and surface based, the further west it's going to go, closer to the BAM-shallow. GFS, EC and especially the UK came in much further west. Convection is beginning to fire again, but I think it's already too late for the east track.

I'm willing to bet this thing goes south of Miami, maybe over the Keys, and makes landfall in the panhandle as a Tropical Storm. Don't really have time to draw a map right now but that's my forecast!

Figured I'd make one, just for fun.

I'd also like to add to my above reasoning that progressive dry air entrainment from the north, as well as much higher shear north of the system than south of it, may allow for the center of circulation to redevelop to the south multiple times between now and Hispanola, further enhancing the southward track.

[wxmeddler]

Wow, SMFR picking up winds of 45 kts NE of the "center" inside the thunderstorm complexes.

[CUmet]

The circulation has been trending much more impressive over the past few hours on visible. If this isn't closed off right now, it will be within the next 6-12 hours IMO. And it'll go straight to TS Emily.

[Floydbuster]

The chances of this becoming a significant hurricane have deteriorated massively. I would think hurricane status may even be difficult unless it A. Gets in the Central Caribbean towards Jamaica, south of Cuba, ect. or B. Goes north of Hispaniola and explodes over the Bahamas and Florida Straits.

[JPFLL]

Figured I'd make one, just for fun.

I'd also like to add to my above reasoning that progressive dry air entrainment from the north, as well as much higher shear north of the system than south of it, may allow for the center of circulation to redevelop to the south multiple times between now and Hispanola, further enhancing the southward track.

I understand that is VERY rare for a storm to hit the Big Bend area of FL.

[wxmeddler]

I believe it is a very delicate situation now. Even a thunderstorm collapse could disrupt the circulation. If 91L want's to take the next step it has to tread lightly over the next few hours and build itself a set of thunderstorms to lower its pressure and attract more air into it.

[Typhoon Tip]

My take on this disturbance is that it isn't doing much now and probably isn't going to organize quickly, and it's on a collision course with Hispaniola so that will slow things further. However, it may be something to watch once it gets past Hispaniola if it's still in one piece. The Bahamas and offshore waters of Florida are generally a very favorable place for a westward moving storm.

It might actually be beneficial in the end that this won't become that organized prior to Hispaniola, weaker systems seem to take the punch better.

Perhaps lesser known teleconnector for positive height anomalies near GA off of lead SOI easterly flux anomalies. One took place a little less than a week ago and now the UKMET is showing a large 594 height circumvallate developing right smack where that teleconnector says it should by D5. It's been getting more prevalent across the last several cycles of the run, now robustly presented. Though the UKMET doesn't often score well with details, it has high rank when it comes to the geopotential medium in general.

I'd be advised of this that a southerly route could be in the offing as any said ridge success would turn this into a southern archepalago raker or even S -

[icebreaker5221]

I understand that is VERY rare for a storm to hit the Big Bend area of FL.

It is. But I wanted to split the difference between a Panama City and a Tampa landfall, so there is some inherent uncertainty in the forecast.

[dan88]

Recon heading back west, hopefully to check out South of where they did last time. Their NE leg though did find 45kt flight level winds.

[Typhoon Tip]

Because this happens to me all the time where for some reason my posts end up the last entry before the page turns, thus ... no one sees them... and i'm sick of it:

"Perhaps lesser known teleconnector for positive height anomalies near GA off of lead SOI easterly flux anomalies. One took place a little less than a week ago and now the UKMET is showing a large 594 height circumvallate developing right smack where that teleconnector says it should by D5. It's been getting more prevalent across the last several cycles of the run, now robustly presented. Though the UKMET doesn't often score well with details, it has high rank when it comes to the geopotential medium in general.

I'd be advised of this that a southerly route could be in the offing as any said ridge success would turn this into a southern archepalago raker or even S -

[Uncle Bobby]

...did find 45kt flight level winds.

...and FL was <300 meters.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

I think it was actually in 2009 when it scored a coup with a storm, but I don't remember what it was. Even blind squirrels find nuts. GFS/Euro consensus has been the best forecast for the last year now, statistically speaking.

True, but of course it never hurts to look (unless it is the NAM, of course)... and the CMC did get remarkably better (not to the point of competition of course) after the upgrade.

[DopplerWx]

Looking a bit more promising now, just needs to keep firing storms over the center into the night and then hopefully the dmax helps put her over the hump.

[wxmeddler]

I am thoroughly surprised by the RECON HDOB messages coming through on the NE and N sides. 45 kts flight level (and flight level is 1,000 ASL) And most often the SFMR nearly match those speeds. I'd still like to see what is going on in the south side of the LLC. Need some west winds here!

[hurricaneman]

It might be one of those cases where when recon finds west winds, there will be a special advisory

[k***]

Because this happens to me all the time where for some reason my posts end up the last entry before the page turns, thus ... no one sees them... and i'm sick of it:

"Perhaps lesser known teleconnector for positive height anomalies near GA off of lead SOI easterly flux anomalies. One took place a little less than a week ago and now the UKMET is showing a large 594 height circumvallate developing right smack where that teleconnector says it should by D5. It's been getting more prevalent across the last several cycles of the run, now robustly presented. Though the UKMET doesn't often score well with details, it has high rank when it comes to the geopotential medium in general.

I'd be advised of this that a southerly route could be in the offing as any said ridge success would turn this into a southern archepalago raker or even S -

people see them...they just don't respond because you are the wx board equivalent of a thesaurus explosion and don't communicate your thoughts very well.

[phil882]

Recon is going in for another look...