hurricaneman Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Is it possible it may not develop at all or very little like the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 The other option that also takes time is for the mid level circulation with the convection to work down to the surface with the convection while the old low level ciculation continues to weaken. I think that is the more likely scenario but also one that won't happen right away. I don't think the MLC will ever sustain convection long enough for that to happen... Besides, I've only ever wseen that evolutioon a few times, 9 times out of 10, it'll be the LLC/trough that will dictate development and the MLC will reform over the LLC. I think if we are waiting for the MLC to develop something, we'll have an invest till it scrambles itself over Hispaniola/Cuba... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 12Z GFS is interesting. May be wrong, but interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I don't think the MLC will ever sustain convection long enough for that to happen... Besides, I've only ever wseen that evolutioon a few times, 9 times out of 10, it'll be the LLC/trough that will dictate development and the MLC will reform over the LLC. I think if we are waiting for the MLC to develop something, we'll have an invest till it scrambles itself over Hispaniola/Cuba... I've seen it happen especially with the remains of old upper lows that bore down to the surface when convection gets going, However, the convection with the mid level center looks to be on the wane so you are probably right that the low level center will have to be the one to do it. Right now the whole system looks sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Recon getting ready to check out the system starting with what appears to be the closest thing the storm has to a low level center on the NW side of the complex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 12Z GFS is interesting. May be wrong, but interesting. Isn't that the second run in a row from the GFS with this depiction of location and strength? If so, and with its track record on genesis this year, it raises an eyebrow. I personally don't see it getting much further west than the central Bahamas, but you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Saharan Air Layer analysis shows a plume a bit too close for comfort; it's plausible there is some convective interference going on at the present time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 CMC is in the Gulf again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I've seen it happen especially with the remains of old upper lows that bore down to the surface when convection gets going, However, the convection with the mid level center looks to be on the wane so you are probably right that the low level center will have to be the one to do it. Right now the whole system looks sick. Its worth mentioning that mid level circulations disjointed from a llc but than working their way down to the surface has happened with several tropical cyclones too. Erin 2001, Kyle 2002, and Jeanne 2004 are good examples. For now though, things don't look that great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Its worth mentioning that mid level circulations disjointed from a llc but than working their way down to the surface has happened with several tropical cyclones too. Erin 2001, Kyle 2002, and Jeanne 2004 are good examples. I believe this scenario is much more likely to happen with strongly-sheared systems, as the strong-shear displaces the convection away from the LLC and also helps to focus it in the downshear-left quadrant. The persistence of this convection then helps to generate a new center at the surface. The shear associated with 91L is not particularly strong so far, and not enough to make the convective pattern asymmetric enough for this scenario IMO. If my eyes aren't deceiving me, it does look like the southerly inflow has strengthened some over the last 6 hours or so on visible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Well, there's certainly nothing conclusive from the flight yet, but I find it interesting that as they fly SE at ~15N -59W they are recording a bit of veering of 975mb winds..... to 144 degrees attm. URNT15 KNHC 011736 AF305 04EEA INVEST HDOB 09 20110801 172600 1503N 05907W 9761 00296 0098 +225 +164 128035 035 034 002 00 172630 1502N 05906W 9762 00295 0099 +221 +165 127034 035 036 002 00 172700 1501N 05905W 9757 00301 0100 +213 +165 130034 035 038 004 00 172730 1500N 05904W 9762 00295 0098 +220 +163 129036 037 039 004 00 172800 1459N 05903W 9761 00294 0098 +216 +160 134036 036 038 005 00 172830 1458N 05902W 9757 00300 0101 +209 +158 130035 036 037 008 00 172900 1457N 05901W 9761 00296 0101 +205 +154 127036 037 041 014 00 172930 1456N 05900W 9755 00301 0101 +200 +151 128032 033 043 018 00 173000 1455N 05859W 9764 00293 0102 +197 +148 131030 032 042 020 00 173030 1454N 05858W 9760 00299 0103 +195 +146 130030 031 043 020 00 173100 1453N 05858W 9755 00303 0103 +196 +144 131029 031 050 030 00 173130 1453N 05857W 9759 00303 0104 +196 +142 140031 032 049 031 00 173200 1452N 05856W 9761 00297 0104 +201 +141 143033 034 039 017 00 173230 1451N 05855W 9761 00298 0103 +203 +140 141034 035 040 010 00 173300 1450N 05854W 9760 00298 0101 +214 +139 144035 037 038 011 00 173330 1449N 05853W 9761 00298 0100 +223 +140 145038 039 039 005 00 173400 1448N 05852W 9761 00295 0098 +224 +142 144039 041 036 002 00 173430 1447N 05851W 9760 00296 0099 +223 +147 143040 041 038 002 00 173500 1446N 05850W 9763 00293 0098 +226 +151 143042 043 037 001 00 173530 1445N 05850W 9758 00298 0098 +225 +155 144039 040 037 001 00 $$ ; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Well, there's certainly nothing conclusive from the flight yet, but I find it interesting that as they fly SE at ~15N -59W they are recording a bit of veering of 975mb winds..... to 144 degrees attm. You might stick all that in code, its a mess in quotes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Hmmmmmm... downgraded once again. TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES EASTWARD FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THIS MORNING. THE WAVE IS PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM TO FORM LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY SHORT NOTICE. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 12z Euro trended slightly weaker with a track across Haiti into S FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Developing LLC beginning to move through the Lesser Antilles with light west winds reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Looks like crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Looks like crap. It's an invest. What did you expect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 My take on this disturbance is that it isn't doing much now and probably isn't going to organize quickly, and it's on a collision course with Hispaniola so that will slow things further. However, it may be something to watch once it gets past Hispaniola if it's still in one piece. The Bahamas and offshore waters of Florida are generally a very favorable place for a westward moving storm. It might actually be beneficial in the end that this won't become that organized prior to Hispaniola, weaker systems seem to take the punch better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Looks like crap. Actually, the last few vis frames show convection firing closer to the supposed LLC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sleetfreak Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Developing LLC beginning to move through the Lesser Antilles with light west winds reported. Yes, Barbados reporting SSW @ 13 kts at 2 p.m., and have been from the south since a wind shift from east and ENE at mid-morning. Apparent LLC (if there is one) is between Barbados and Saint Vincent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 Developing LLC beginning to move through the Lesser Antilles with light west winds reported. 3 mph at Dominica from the W is questionable. Let RECON determine if there in fact is a distinct circulation before we make that jump. Barbados is reporting SSW winds as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 It's an invest. What did you expect? True. Just taking alot longer than thought to develop into a TD. Hopefully well all be satisfied by the 8pm or 2am updates from the NHC.Hopefully DMAX can do its thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 3 mph at Dominica from the W is questionable. Let RECON determine if there in fact is a distinct circulation before we make that jump. Barbados is reporting SSW winds as well. There's probably a distorted broad circulation in there, it would be surprising if there was a true closed closed circulation yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Never seen a cherry just stay a cherry for a few days and slowly rot like is. So glad I've been too busy to follow it, or I'd have probably put my fist through a wall by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Tough forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Tough forecast. seems reasonable...good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Tough forecast. I like that forecast, Mallow. Very similar to what I put out this morning. If it stays weaker, it probably dumps a ton of rain on S FL. If it gets as strong as you have it, it's likely to be a near miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I don't remember if they even had the lemon/orange/cherry fruit system or not in 2008, but Dolly was an invest for seemingly forever, and still produced good YouTube videos. Glass half full. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I like that forecast, Mallow. Very similar to what I put out this morning. If it stays weaker, it probably dumps a ton of rain on S FL. If it gets as strong as you have it, it's likely to be a near miss. Not as bad as Texas, but lets hope for a weak system then. Not that hoping changes anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I like that forecast, Mallow. Very similar to what I put out this morning. If it stays weaker, it probably dumps a ton of rain on S FL. If it gets as strong as you have it, it's likely to be a near miss. I'd like to see the weak scenario as Lake Okeechobee and points nearby really need to water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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