wxmeddler Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I think I know what you are referencing, but that still isn't a 'naked swirl'. Alright, I'll bite. What is your definition of a naked swirl then? To me it is a low level circulation that is not associated with any convection and clearly detached from any mid-level circulation. Also, what channel are you using? It seems best to show in RGB for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCANE Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 What on earth are you talking about? Which model has performed poorly this year? The GFS/Euro have been excellent for all four storms this year. As far as genesis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Models in 2011 >> Models in 2004. Oh, I don't disagree there, however, the mean error for a 5 day consensus prog certainly hasn't decreased enormously since then....and thus my pointing an example of poor modeling in the past. IMO, the WNW invests/TD's as they enter the Car. Sea are probably scenarios that really put the models to the test more than many others. (ie, land interactions, first potential encounters with westerlies, etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 The blob looks nice, but for now it looks like the convection may be associated with the mid level circulation. Microwave images and low level cloud motions indicate that any surface circulation is weakly closed at best, and running well west of the convection: My assessment of genesis by this evening made very early this morning will not work out if this organization pattern continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 What on earth are you talking about? Which model has performed poorly this year? The GFS/Euro have been excellent for all four storms this year. I'm going to guess he/she is referring to the very few runs of the GFS and Euro that were pretty terrible (Don into SW LA- GFS; Euro developing 91L way far east), and somehow applying it to their performance as a whole. Overall, they have been great, although they've struggled with 91L's development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 As far as genesis? Especially in terms of genesis. Both of them sniffed out all four storms at 5+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Can see more rotation, but a large amount of dry air on the North side of the system, and more dry air sneaking in from the Southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCANE Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Especially in terms of genesis. Both of them sniffed out all four storms at 5+ days out. OK, I'll stand corrected. Somehow I saw different. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Oh, I don't disagree there, however, the mean error for a 5 day consensus prog certainly hasn't decreased enormously since then....and thus my pointing an example of poor modeling in the past. IMO, the WNW invests/TD's as they enter the Car. Sea are probably scenarios that really put the models to the test more than many others. (ie, land interactions, first potential encounters with westerlies, etc... 100 nm improvement in 7 years seems pretty significant to me. I do agree with your point about E Carib genesis, though. Westerlies + SAL interactions + land interactions are definitely tough for the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Models are a lot better with genesis than they used to be. I think we all remember the days when just about every GFS run had a couple of fantasy hurricanes on it. You really haven't seen nearly as much of that the last few years. Obviously they are going to still have false alarms, and will still struggle with track / intensity issues. Track wise I wouldn't say models have been great nor poor this year, as we haven't had enough good tests yet. GFS overall did tend to be a little too far north with Arlene and Don. Euro was better with each one. I honestly did not look at Bret / Cindy in model world because no one cared about them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Alright, I'll bite. What is your definition of a naked swirl then? To me it is a low level circulation that is not associated with any convection and clearly detached from any mid-level circulation. Also, what channel are you using? It seems best to show in RGB for me. Hard to define and hard to find a good satellite picture but I got this from the CIMSS Satellite Blog. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/100924-25_g13_vis_atl_swirl_anim.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Looks like the track errors have ihave gained about 2 days in the past 10 years....the 120 hour forecast now averages the same error as the 72 hour forecast did in 2000. That's pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I remember Dean and Ivan doing the same things to us.. where does the environment improve? East carib, south of Haiti/DR? (Btw, my first post here.. Where's my welcome party?) Improvement in what way??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Hard to define and hard to find a good satellite picture but I got this from the CIMSS Satellite Blog. http://cimss.ssec.wi..._swirl_anim.gif In that case, your definition is different from mine (which is ok). The point is that the surface circulation at 15.5N 59W (as pointed out by OHWeather's post a page back) is being displaced from the mid-level center associated with the convection and now we (again) have a disorganized system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 100 nm improvement in 7 years seems pretty significant to me. I do agree with your point about E Carib genesis, though. Westerlies + SAL interactions + land interactions are definitely tough for the models. Weird variability the last 3 years wrt 5 day prog error....I hadn't seen the 2010 figures (which are much better, but without a lot of land mass interaction, ie...above average CV type storm, is not super surprising). I suspect that the true "skill gain" is in the 50-75 nm range. It'd be interesting to tease out some model error with TC's that are imminent or TD status int the area where 91L exists vs. other model error in the W. Car., SE US coast, and YC/GOM....and if there is a notable bias in said areas wrt model performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPFLL Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Improvement in what way??? Ha ha that cat looks like this T-Wave.. you said environment is not optimal attm for development, but does it improve in the east carib? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 In that case, your definition is different from mine (which is ok). The point is that the surface circulation at 15.5N 59W (as pointed out by OHWeather's post a page back) is being displaced from the mid-level center associated with the convection and now we (again) have a disorganized system. You're looking a bit too far N. Note the convection a bit further S... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 It would almost be humorous at this point if this thing failed altogether. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Looks better to me on visible than yesterday. Still a Western complex, but not an obvious low level circulation with it, while I do see the beginning of a Northerly component of low cloud elements West of the Eastern complex. Not quite there yet, but better than yesterday, IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 You're looking a bit too far N. Note the convection a bit further S... I thank your for your hint Srain but I am failing to see where there is a surface circulation south of my coordinates. The mid-level vorticity maximum is down there but as the Hurricane Hunters showed this morning there is no closed surface circulation with the necessary winds missing on the west and south side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I thank your for your hint Srain but I am failing to see where there is a surface circulation south of my coordinates. The mid-level vorticity maximum is down there but as the Hurricane Hunters showed this morning there is no closed surface circulation with the necessary winds missing on the west and south side. I agree with you, there's a weak low level swirl at 15.5N 59W ... the mid level turning and the associated convective clouds are lagging behind, and the latest ASCAT pass shows that there's no low level reflection to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I agree with you, there's a weak low level swirl at 15.5N 59W ... the mid level turning and the associated convective clouds are lagging behind, and the latest ASCAT pass shows that there's no low level reflection to it. Latest MW pretty much confirms this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Right now the major problem with 91L is that the low level flow is outrunning the upper level flow which is slower and more southerly ... creating shear over the system. We need to see convection develop back over the low level reflection to slow down its forward motion and attempt to get it vertically stacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Looks like some convection is starting to fire up near that low-level swirl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Right now the major problem with 91L is that the low level flow is outrunning the upper level flow which is slower and more southerly ... creating shear over the system. We need to see convection to develop back over the low level reflection to slow down its forward motion and attempt to get it vertically stacked. The other option that also takes time is for the mid level circulation with the convection to work down to the surface with the convection while the old low level ciculation continues to weaken. I think that is the more likely scenario but also one that won't happen right away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Looks like some convection is starting to fire up near that low-level swirl I agree but this still has a LONG way to go... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I agree but this still has a LONG way to go... http://www.ssd.noaa..../flash-vis.html The elongated convective burst on the northwest side is some what encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Banding is def improving this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Still barfing arc clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Take the moralistic crap to OT. This thread is for discussing the analysis and forecast for Invest 91L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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