Ed Lizard Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Chances are looking better that we will have a GOM TC. Why do you think that. The Canadian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Why do you think that. The Canadian? The Canadian has a good convective parameterization scheme for tropical systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I disagree with this. Improvements in data assimilation techniques and convective/radiation parameterizations over the past few years have greatly increased the global models' ability to develop realistic tropical cyclones with skill. I still wouldn't trust GFDL/HWRF output (not that I do when there is actually a storm, either), but the Euro/GFS/UKMet are all useful for prediction prior to actual TC genesis. Please make a colorful attention-grabbing banner out of this post and keep it at the top of the forum until December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Wow I'm stunned by how disorganized it is this morning... I really thought it was getting its act together with the AMSRE pass last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 The Canadian has a good convective parameterization scheme for tropical systems. If memory serves me correct this is especially the case in the early part of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Wow I'm stunned by how disorganized it is this morning... I really thought it was getting its act together with the AMSRE pass last night. I'm contemplating the thought that this might be the longest invest that never develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 The Canadian has a good convective parameterization scheme for tropical systems. No. They have improved it with the latest upgrade, but it still has a higher false alarm rate than any of the other global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCANE Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 The Canadian has a good convective parameterization scheme for tropical systems. Not just CMC, but the fact that it is still a wave. Convection is currently low rain-rate and relatively warm cloud tops. Anti-cyclone is displaced to the east of the LLC. It is struggling to build a stacked PV circulation. Waves move west.. Recon has pretty much confirmed what the graphic is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 FWIW, I don't really use those compiled CIRA wind images. The bogussed vortex really screws with developing systems. The AMSU-derived winds are ok to look at though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCANE Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I am sorry, I wanted to add another point. MIMIC-TPW is also showing that the boundary-layer infeed into 91L is becoming cutoff due to the dry slot on the west that is circulating south. This may continue to remain a wave into a portion of the east Carib. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I'm contemplating the thought that this might be the longest invest that never develops. Not quite... but looking at the current organization on satellite, recon, and now microwave, this is not ready to be a TD yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I am sorry, I wanted to add another point. MIMIC-TPW is also showing that the boundary-layer infeed into 91L is becoming cutoff due to the dry slot on the west that is circulating south. This may continue to remain a wave into a portion of the east Carib. Yea all of the microwave passes this morning show evidence of a dry air intrusion from the North, and that is likely what is squashing the convection over the system right now. Overall, the system is looking rather disorganized right now, and I think we might see a further drop in TCG probabilities this afternoon unless this system gets its act back together fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I'm contemplating the thought that this might be the longest invest that never develops. I couldn't agree with you more. This thing is taking forever to get it's act together. And the longer it takes the greater the chance that something(land....well islands) will continue to screw it up and all we get is 50 pages of forum with no real TC to talk about. This thing better get its act together soon or we all may run out of hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I couldn't agree with you more. This thing is taking forever to get it's act together. And the longer it takes the greater the chance that something(land....well islands) will continue to screw it up and all we get is 50 pages of forum with no real TC to talk about. This thing better get its act together soon or we all may run out of hope. Come on, man. We're still 48-60 hours until it gets to Hispaniola. There is plenty of time for it to develop before interacting with land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Environment is blah at best... May well get to TS before Hispaniola but can't see it being anything beyond that. Then have to see how well it survives and what the trajectory is once past the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCANE Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 If this continues west and begins to develop in the mid-Carib this could potentially develop into a strong TC if it moves into the west Carib where the water is the warmest in the Atlantic. At that point, it will be interesting to see if it makes the turn into the GOM and if it is over Cuba or the Yucatan Channel. I think we all know the potential if it runs thru the Yucatan channel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I think at this point, we may see 91L miss Hispañola to the south... not necessarily extremely far to the south... but definitely missing it to the south. This system is just not going to get well organized enough for the trough to be able to pick it up with much success... keep in mind that the models are showing a developed cyclone being picked up that is deep enough for the trough to grab... and so far, they have been pretty off the mark with respect to this developing. This may easily not become a minimal TS until it gets near or passes the longitude of Hispañola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 If this continues west and begins to develop in the mid-Carib this could potentially develop into a strong TC if it moves into the west Carib where the water is the warmest in the Atlantic. At that point, it will be interesting to see if it makes the turn into the GOM and if it is over Cuba or the Yucatan Channel. I think we all know the potential if it runs thru the Yucatan channel. It would take an immaculate model bust to get this into the Yucatan Channel. I could possibly see it getting into the extreme Eastern Gulf, but even that is unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 HPC QPF forecast for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Day 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Has a better chance than usual, IMHO, of being an exception to the John Hope rule. Not using the NAM for a forecast, just for what the windfields are intialized at, while 20 knot 850 mb winds aren't optimal, and might imply some weak divergence, 300 mb to almost 70ºW in the Caribbean also have an Easterly component, so shear West of the L. Antilles wouldn't be prohibitive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 It would take an immaculate model bust to get this into the Yucatan Channel. I could possibly see it getting into the extreme Eastern Gulf, but even that is unlikely. I think it was Ivan (2004), where the models (for days and days worth of runs) had him turn too far east....Initially consensus was a miss east of FL. but verified in the E/C GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I think it was Ivan (2005), where the models (for days and days worth of runs) had him turn too far east....Initially consensus was a miss east of FL. but verified in the E/C GOM. Models in 2011 >> Models in 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Naked swirl escaping from the convection around 16.5N 59W. Just when everything looked consolidated. It will be interesting to see if the LLC itself can spawn thunderstorms but in any matter it will likely add another 24 hours to the TD countdown clock. (IMHO) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Naked swirl escaping from the convection around 16.5N 59W. Just when everything looked consolidated. It will be interesting to see if the LLC itself can spawn thunderstorms but in any matter it will likely add another 24 hours to the TD countdown clock. (IMHO) I don't see a 'naked swirl', especially at your coordinates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I think it was Ivan (2005), where the models (for days and days worth of runs) had him turn too far east....Initially consensus was a miss east of FL. but verified in the E/C GOM. Dean 2007 as well was another one that kept getting adjusted westward, though Euro was latched onto the right solution well before the other models. The Gulf is not off the hook here yet, but first we just need something to actually form, and the environment just isn't ideal for awhile yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I don't see a 'naked swirl', especially at your coordinates. Sorry, 15.5N 59W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPFLL Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Dean 2007 as well was another one that kept getting adjusted westward, though Euro was latched onto the right solution well before the other models. The Gulf is not off the hook here yet, but first we just need something to actually form, and the environment just isn't ideal for awhile yet. I remember Dean and Ivan doing the same things to us.. where does the environment improve? East carib, south of Haiti/DR? (Btw, my first post here.. Where's my welcome party?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCANE Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 It would take an immaculate model bust to get this into the Yucatan Channel. I could possibly see it getting into the extreme Eastern Gulf, but even that is unlikely. Pretty much right on par with what they have been doing so far this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Sorry, 15.5N 59W I think I know what you are referencing, but that still isn't a 'naked swirl'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Pretty much right on par with what they have been doing so far this year. What on earth are you talking about? Which model has performed poorly this year? The GFS/Euro have been excellent for all four storms this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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