David Reimer Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Of course, but some here are making it seem like I said 'here's floyd's track, game, set, match'. I threw it out as simply a possibility. BIG MISTAKE. That apparently is strictly prohibited without pages of research accompanying the scenario and the express written consent of certain posters. That's why I commented on how much fun this thread is and some of the people who are involved in it's construction. Haven't been on the weather side for sometime since winter and now I know why. It's just a little uptight in here. Think I'll stick to reading the experts. The most common sense you've demonstrated all evening. Here's the 0Z early tracks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 91L is an area where, climatologically, 15-20% of storms in that area have later hit the US East Coast. I would put the chances of an east coast impact at less than 10% since the pattern appears quite unfavorable for landfall. That data is for storms already classified in that location correct? With 91L not being classified yet, that would change the data. To what extent, I'm not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 That data is for storms already classified in that location correct? With 91L not being classified yet, that would change the data. To what extent, I'm not sure. yeah, I believe it is only for TCs at those locations. I think the actual probability would be lower it since there is a greater chance of something dissipating that isn't yet classified as opposed to something that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 yeah, I believe it is only for TCs at those locations. I think the actual probability would be lower it since there is a greater chance of something dissipating that isn't yet classified as opposed to something that is. Got it. Thanks for the reply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Come on, guys... posting tracks of David, Floyd, etc. adds nothing to this discussion. For every David/Floyd track, I could post about 200 storm tracks from the same location that fizzled. Back on track, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Looks the center is finally starting to consolidate. The convection to the west has weakened and the mid-level circulation that looked to be original center now has a cluster of deep convection over it again. If this system needs a extra little oomph to get going, there is a kelvin wave that over the system currently, and tropical cyclogenesis has the highest correlation in the first few days after this passes over the system. I think now that the center seems to be consolidating into one entity at least convectively, we shouldn't be that far off from eventual development. This morning's recon mission might reflect that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 9:55pm microwave caught the SE half of the new area of convection, looks to be in better shape then earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I am beginning to wonder if this will make it towards even the Central Caribbean.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I am beginning to wonder if this will make it towards even the Central Caribbean.... That thought hadn't crossed your mind already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Looks the center is finally starting to consolidate. The convection to the west has weakened and the mid-level circulation that looked to be original center now has a cluster of deep convection over it again. If this system needs a extra little oomph to get going, there is a kelvin wave that over the system currently, and tropical cyclogenesis has the highest correlation in the first few days after this passes over the system. I think now that the center seems to be consolidating into one entity at least convectively, we shouldn't be that far off from eventual development. This morning's recon mission might reflect that. Too bad for the East Coast, because the models that were more bullish on East Coast landfall initialized the Western blob as the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 If this fails to develop in the next to days I will LMAO at the NHCs 100% probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 If this fails to develop in the next to days I will LMAO at the NHCs 100% probability. Agreed. It never really looked good enough to be classified at 100%. The models have always been bullish, but given the cloud pattern, I would have been hesitant to go more than 70-80%. DON had a 0% probability on it for 12 hours, and eventually developed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Yesterday's 100 still has until tomorrow to verify. I'll take the NHC over you guys, even if the 100% busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Could this EMILY be very similar to a storm of the same name in the 1990s that grazed the Outer Banks and then headed for sea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 If this fails to develop in the next to days I will LMAO at the NHCs 100% probability. Actually the probability of near 100% means an at/above 95% chance of development. Obviously if it fails to develop a defined low level circulation with probs >= 95%, it won't look good on their post-season numbers. 0% to 4% - Near 0% chance of ceveopment 5% to 14% - 10% chance of development 15% to 24% - 20% chance of development 25% to 34% - 30% chance of development 35% to 44% - 40% chance of development 45% to 54% - 50% chance of development 55% to 64% - 60% chance of development 65% to 74% - 70% chance of development 75% to 84% - 80% chance of development 85% to 94% - 90% chance of development 95% to 100% - Near 100% chance of development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 1008mb lookout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 1008mb lookout Globals always underdo TCs at that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 1008mb lookout Of course we all know the GFS isn't going to be perfect on intensity. But, hey it did show Don a a few sprinkles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 If 91L gets too far in the Caribbean, I'd foresee more of a Charley/Ernesto/Fay-type track. I just think it's fantasy-land to think that this system would be south of Grand Bahama Island and miss the United States by that point. It would need to literally turn northeast immediately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 There's a minimal chance this will be a major threat to the east coast. If it it stays west, it'll have to pass through the islands, leaving not much time to strengthen before it reaches the SE. If it stays north, it has lots of room to strengthen, but the trough will easily whisk it out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Anybody buying the GFS tonight? 138 near MIA to 174 near JAX offshore 200 miles or so... then moves NE and goes "poof" by 204 it looks like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 If 91L gets too far in the Caribbean, I'd foresee more of a Charley/Ernesto/Fay-type track. I just think it's fantasy-land to think that this system would be south of Grand Bahama Island and miss the United States by that point. It would need to literally turn northeast immediately. I highly disagree with this post. The first trough should be strong enough to bring 91L out of the Caribbean into the Atlantic Basin. The main feature that still has yet to be resolved in the modeling is how strong the subtropical high will rebuild back in after the first trough has departed. That can still be debated because that gets out beyond 5 days. Within 3 days though, the mid-level features are pretty set in stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Looking the best it ever has with deep convection over center. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I highly disagree with this post. The first trough should be strong enough to bring 91L out of the Caribbean into the Atlantic Basin. The main feature that still has yet to be resolved in the modeling is how strong the subtropical high will rebuild back in after the first trough has departed. That can still be debated because that gets out beyond 5 days. Within 3 days though, the mid-level features are pretty set in stone. I'm not doubting that, my post was in regards to the 7-10 day time-frame. If the models showing this tiny ridging rebuilding and being a pest sticking around to the north of the Hurricane, then I can't see it not atleast battering the Bahamas and seriously menacing the Southeast Coast. Also, if the GFS were to pan out, the upper level conditions by 5-6 days look supreme with the storm over the hot August waters of the Bahamas, and if it were a decently-organized Category 1 hurricane as the ships model shows, then significant strengthening would be possible. I'm not expecting this to be a Gulf system by any stretch, and my apologies if my thoughts were conceived to be that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Anybody buying the GFS tonight? 138 near MIA to 174 near JAX offshore 200 miles or so... then moves NE and goes "poof" by 204 it looks like? The GFS did make a pretty substantial shift tonight, perhaps from the G-IV mission conducted earlier today. It seems that the end result is that there is a much stronger ridge. Seen below is the major change seen between the 18z GFS and 00z run. You can notice now that there are now two coherent 500mb anticyclones rather than just an appendage from the Central US subtropical ridge. However, also notice the trough in between these features on the 00z run. This will erode the subtropical ridge to the east, causing a quick turn to the north and then northeast before making landfall. You see all that westerly flow over South and North Carolina? That will prevent 91L from going up the coast like so many other infamous tropical cyclones of the past. While I think this run shows a somewhat increased threat of a lower Southeast landfall, other locations further north and east have a far lower probability of impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I'm not doubting that, my post was in regards to the 7-10 day time-frame. If the models showing this tiny ridging rebuilding and being a pest sticking around to the north of the Hurricane, then I can't see it not atleast battering the Bahamas and seriously menacing the Southeast Coast. Also, if the GFS were to pan out, the upper level conditions by 5-6 days look supreme with the storm over the hot August waters of the Bahamas, and if it were a decently-organized Category 1 hurricane as the ships model shows, then significant strengthening would be possible. I'm not expecting this to be a Gulf system by any stretch, and my apologies if my thoughts were conceived to be that way. When you start throwing analogs like Charley and Fay around, it certainly seems like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 00z Canadian into the Gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 It seems like a sharp recurve is a constant in many of the medium/long range forecasts...uncomfortably close to Florida in some of the more recent modeling, but seems like the rest of the east coast is not "on the hook" unless the trough evolution changes significantly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.