EasternUSWX Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Hurricane hunters are on the way to 91L. It's funny kinda looks like two system trying to get going now. Wonder how this will effect 91L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Unlikely to get west of 74w before recurve. Why? What is your reasoning? These types of posts aren't helpful without at least some basic explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 wait which one is 91L? im confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 wait which one is 91L? im confused. The one on the right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 I mentioned this on another thread. It does look like 2 distinct systems trying to get going. Hurricane hunters are on the way to 91L. It's funny kinda looks like two system trying to get going now. Wonder how this will effect 91L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 GFS goes south bound. 12Z 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Hurricane hunters are on the way to 91L. It's funny kinda looks like two system trying to get going now. Wonder how this will effect 91L. perfect storm! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Could this be a threat to the EC North of Hatteras you guys think? It seems that the 12z GFS recurves this around the 180h time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Could this be a threat to the EC North of Hatteras you guys think? It seems that the 12z GFS recurves this around the 180h time period. It's not impossible. Going to depend on how deep the through is. Well it sure looks like a TD/TS now. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Could this be a threat to the EC North of Hatteras you guys think? It seems that the 12z GFS recurves this around the 180h time period. We've been discussing the lack of EC threat for a while now. Just catch up with the thread and you will have the answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Could this be a threat to the EC North of Hatteras you guys think? It seems that the 12z GFS recurves this around the 180h time period. At this point. it's anyone's guess . The latest GFS has shifted significantly south and west. It appears it does lift out in time before hitting the US, but the south and west trend bears watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 is it possible that sicne this is breaking in two that the rear one becomes Emily while the front one becomes Franklin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 We've been discussing the lack of EC threat for a while now. Just catch up with the thread and you will have the answer. A very close recurve is possible, I suppose. The trough will probably want to amplify and go more negative if Emily is near Florida in 180 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 It's not impossible. Going to depend on how deep the through is. Well it sure looks like a TD/TS now. http://www.ssd.noaa..../flash-vis.html Definite closed circulation with the Eastern cluster aloft, but look at the low cloud elements to the West of it. It isn't closed around the Eastern cluster yet at the surface unless it is small enough to be completely obscured by the cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 is it possible that sicne this is breaking in two that the rear one becomes Emily while the front one becomes Franklin They're too close. Situations like you described don't really happen because one twin will kill the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Definite closed circulation with the Eastern cluster aloft, but look at the low cloud elements to the West of it. It isn't closed around the Eastern cluster yet at the surface unless it is small enough to be completely obscured by the cirrus. Hard to tell. Recon will paint the picture in a few hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Definite closed circulation with the Eastern cluster aloft, but look at the low cloud elements to the West of it. It isn't closed around the Eastern cluster yet at the surface unless it is small enough to be completely obscured by the cirrus. In the sat loop, you can see a low-level vortex SW of the eastern complex. Looks transient to me and we should begin to see some consolidation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Stretched and not perfectly aligned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 The problem with that data is that it is using the NAO measurement on the day of the storm making a landfall. I would think the NAO phase either a week up to two weeks prior to landfall would be a more useful correlation, correct? You're bringing up a good point. Actually, one week prior does appear to have a smaller partial correlation while two weeks prior appears to have little, if any, correlation. I count 26 (earlier I had 25 but I had missed one) nongrazing east coast hurricane hits from 1950-2010: 1) Avg. NAO day of hit: +0.3; 19 (73%) had +NAO and 7 (27%) had -NAO. 2) Avg. NAO seven days prior to hit: +0.2; 16 (62%) had +NAO and 10 (38%) had -NAO. 3) Avg. NAO 14 days prior to hit: 0.0 (right at neutral); 14 (54%) had +NAO and 12 (46%) had -NAO. Seven days earlier, there were actually three with an NAO of less than -1 with the lowest at -1.786 (Cleo of 1964). Regarding 14 days earlier, there was only one below -1 although it was at -2.001 (Cleo of 1964). So, yes, these stats tell me that on occasion the NAO has been solidly negative 7-14 days earlier (3 of the 26 hurricanes). However, the NAO did increase a lot by the day of the hit for these three storms to +0.324 (Carol of 1954), -.272 (Cleo of 1964), and -0.209 (Inez of 1966. With the GFS ensemble mean maintaining its NAO prediction near -2 for days 7-10 and considering their recent verifications (also the Euro ensemble has a similar -NAO), it is pretty likely going to verify as a strongly -NAO when 91L would likely be in its critical position north of the Greater Antilles (assuming it doesn't stay in the Caribbean). So, despite the good point you mentioned, this all still tells me the chances of a nongrazing east coast hit are very slim because the NAO is almost definitely still going to be quite negative. Had the NAO forecast for 7-10 days out been for a rise to only slightly negative or greater as opposed to sinking to strongly negative, I wouldn't be using the NAO to make these east coast avoiding predictions for 91L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 What did you consider an EC hit, Larry? North of Jax? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Wonder what is going on with Recon. No update on Google earth for like an 1hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 The Western cluster has the colder cloud tops now. Which is too bad, the center of the Eastern cluster is already near 14ºN and would have an excellent chance of missing Hispaniola to the North if it goes anytime soon at all. Eastern cluster clearly has the better defined mid level circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 recon hasn't transmitted anything for an hour or so.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Speaking of aircraft, where is the G-IV departing from and how much data, if any, will get ingested into the 0Z models? FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49 A. 01/0000Z B. NOAA9 02EEA SURV C. 31/1730Z D. NA E. NA F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 31, 2011 Author Share Posted July 31, 2011 Speaking of aircraft, where is the G-IV departing from and how much data, if any, will get ingested into the 0Z models? G-IV normally depart from MacDill, if I am not mistaken... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Ok recon is back after long lull. Almost there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 12z CMC shifts west, looks like a close approach to FL at the end of the run. The storm passes directly over Hispaniola, though, which hinders strengthening. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2011073112&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 A fast mean storm motion combined with low wind sheer is essentially the same environment for a system as a slow mean storm motion and low wind sheer, since with the fast motion low sheer, the environment is essentially "moving with" the system. If anything, fast motion hinders upward mixing of cooler water due to less turbulent mixing of the oceanic surface layer, so I would suspect that, all else in the atmosphere being equal, faster storms may remain more intense over regions where the warm water layer is relatively shallow. I doubt there are any studies that directly compare storm motion to rate of intensification, since it is more useful to look at factors like sheer and SST/oceanic heat content. This is correct. There is no such thing as "storm-relative" shear, i.e. you don't subtract the storm motion from the shear vector and get something that's physically meaningful. There have been studies that have shown some negative correlation (faster storm motion is associated with less likelihood of intensification), but given that storm motion is pretty well-correlated with shear, I highly doubt that the storm motion itself does much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 12z CMC shifts west, looks like a close approach to FL at the end of the run. The storm passes directly over Hispaniola, though, which hinders strengthening. http://moe.met.fsu.e...&hour=Animation looks like a David 1979 track according to the canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 recon back, almost there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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