Srain Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al912011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201107290409 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2011, DB, O, 2011072900, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912011 AL, 91, 2011072800, , BEST, 0, 78N, 326W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 91, 2011072806, , BEST, 0, 79N, 343W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 91, 2011072812, , BEST, 0, 80N, 361W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 91, 2011072818, , BEST, 0, 81N, 378W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 91, 2011072900, , BEST, 0, 83N, 395W, 20, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Red line is the consensus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 Certainly an Island threat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 1. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS DISTURBANCE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Omg-- assuming a Don bust, I'm not sure I'm going to have the patience or energy to track a shredded island hopper. It might send me over the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Omg-- assuming a Don bust, I'm not sure I'm going to have the patience or energy to track a shredded island hopper. It might send me over the edge. Emily is a hot name, hopefully she puts out. Hopefully things turn towards the better for you with Don though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 The 00Z GFDL and HWRF, even when centered on Don, pick up on the outer grid the possible future Emily toward the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Emily is a hot name, hopefully she puts out. Hopefully things turn towards the better for you with Don though. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Holy crap lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Weenie Pr0n ALL over 100 knots. For a second, I though I'd opened the Don thread. Then reality hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 So Josh, when you flying to PR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 So Josh, when you flying to PR? No island chasing for me. The targets are waaaaay too small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 My thoughts about 91L... you have to scroll down a bit. Ultimately I think there is a good shot this will be our next tropical cyclone. If it can develop, I think the environment is more than favorable for intensification with warm waters, low shear, and well defined outflow as seen on the GFS model. The only caveat I see is if we do end up with southerly shear, which could allow for entrainment of dry air which is still not too far away from the pouch of the system. However, if the shear remains low as expected in the modeling, this thing could blossom into quite the storm. http://philstropicalweatherblog.wordpress.com/2011/07/29/tropical-storm-don-struggles-invest-91l-forms-disturbed-weather-in-the-caribbean/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I didn't see this posted anywhere... yeah, it's 10 hours old, but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 First light visible reveals what appears to be a pretty healthy system. The dry air to the north is close, but if the shear remains low, I don't see it being a major hindrance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 It should be noted the SHIPS RI already gives this a 44% chance of a 25 knot wind increase in the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Emily reincarnated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Dear God....Islands could be in for it if this pans out as projected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I know we go over this every year, but the statistical guidance is worthless as a projection until there is a closed circulation. The only thing that it is telling you is that conditions will be favorable for development over the next several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 I know we go over this every year, but the statistical guidance is worthless as a projection until there is a closed circulation. The only thing that it is telling you is that conditions will be favorable for development over the next several days. Yep. Those anomalous warm waters just E of the Islands that we heard Bill Read discussing last Saturday lie ahead of 91L. Regardless, this one could be an interesting disturbance to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Yep. Those anomalous warm waters just E of the Islands that we heard Bill Read discussing last Saturday lie ahead of 91L. Regardless, this one could be an interesting disturbance to follow. FWIW, I made it a TD on Monday and a TS on Tuesday in the NE Caribbean. If I am going to bust, I think it'll be because I delayed genesis. The microwave looked really good this morning with strong low level convergence and some banding already showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 FWIW, I made it a TD on Monday and a TS on Tuesday in the NE Caribbean. If I am going to bust, I think it'll be because I delayed genesis. The microwave looked really good this morning with strong low level convergence and some banding already showing up. Reasonable forecast and I tend to agree. The Leewards into the SE Bahamas look most likely for now...oh wait, didn't we do this around 10 days ago with 90L... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Emily reincarnated! I thought that name was retired too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Not to be the party-pooper...but it looks lacking right now to me. Has the very stable "skeleton" appearance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Living in St Croix now... I've got my eyes on this one! May be my first 'cane since Isabel (was in Maryland at the time). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 For all we know could be a TD already. NHC just skips TD and goes to TS a lot lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.