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August 2011 General Discussion/Obs


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from Gino

DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER RIDGE WILL

SET THE STAGE FOR SUMMER 2011'S LAST GASP OF HEAT THURSDAY INTO

FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH PROG H8 TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW/MID 20S

CELSIUS...WHICH IS NEARING 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR

THIS TIME OF YEAR. RECENT WORK FROM OUR SUMMER INTERN JEFF KILBURG

FROM NIU (COMING SOON TO OUR WEBPAGE) REVEALS THAT THE UPPER 80TH

PERCENTILE FOR HIGH TEMPS FOR LATE AUG/EARLY SEPT IS AROUND

90F...WITH 95F BEING THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR CHICAGO. WILL OPT TO

BE SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPS NOW FOR THURS/FRIDAY AND JUST

RUN WITH LOWER 90S...BUT WITH SUMMER BLOWING ITS LAST DYING

BREATHES IN THE FORM OF GUSTY/STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND THE

POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MIX OUT WE COULD SEE HIGHS

CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S OR EVEN UPPER 90S IN SPOTS. RECORD HIGHS

ARE OVER 100F AND AT THIS POINT THEY LOOK SAFE.

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2 days left in meteorological summer, and LAF is sitting at 75.9º through yesterday. Normal JJA average temp (1981-10) is 73.1º.

IND is sitting at 77.6º through yesterday, which if met summer ended today would be good for the 5th hottest on record...somewhat surprising but I guess it shouldn't be, one spot behind last summer.

1) 78.6º - 1874

2) 78.5º - 1936

3) 78.2º - 1934

4) 78.1º - 2010

5) 77.3º - 1983

5) 77.3º - 1872

7) 77.2º - 1873

8) 77.0º - 1901

9) 76.8º - 1921

10) 76.6º - 1933

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Early this afternoon a decaying MCS was struggling to move into CR and I thought I might only get a tenth of an inch of rain or two. However, a bunch of moderate to heavy rain then filled in behind the decaying batch and I got a 1.38" soaking. It's our best rain in several weeks and it was much needed.

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I'm placing bets if we break 1.00 this month. I'm gonna say no. Just looked at the drought monitor and looks like they extended the moderate drought area a little south.

http://droughtmonito...state.htm?IN,MW

I guess I can be optimistic and say at least we have a beautiful weekend coming up.

Well it looks like I was wrong, but a good wrong. Looks like this morning's brief rain shower has now put us just over 1.00 so far! I believe this is the first time Indianapolis has had over 1.00 of rainfall in about 2 months (June saw over 5 I think). It's pretty exciting, don't judge. :P

Looking forward to the drought monitor here. Should come out tomorrow.

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Well it looks like I was wrong, but a good wrong. Looks like this morning's brief rain shower has now put us just over 1.00 so far! I believe this is the first time Indianapolis has had over 1.00 of rainfall in about 2 months (June saw over 5 I think). It's pretty exciting, don't judge. :P

Looking forward to the drought monitor here. Should come out tomorrow.

Looks like 0.13" at IND, which puts them at 1.11" for August: http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KIND.html

Enough to take them out of the top 10 for driest Augusts on record.

1) 0.37" - 2010

2) 0.42" - 1897

3) 0.46" - 1884

4) 0.54" - 1889

5) 0.61" - 1893

6) 0.68" - 1964

7) 0.86" - 1987

8) 0.97" - 1881

9) 1.00" - 1982

10) 1.04" - 1948

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