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Severe weather potential friday 7/29


earthlight

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Blue box is out

476

WWUS30 KWNS 291836

SAW9

SPC AWW 291836

WW 699 SEVERE TSTM NJ NY PA CW 291840Z - 300300Z

AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..

30W UNV/STATE COLLEGE PA/ - 30N JFK/NEW YORK CITY NY/

..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM N/S /20WSW PSB - 26N JFK/

HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.

MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.

LAT...LON 41937841 42157377 39977377 39757841

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS

FOR WOU9.

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WOUS64 KWNS 291836

WOU9

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 699

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

240 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 699 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT

FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NJC003-005-007-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-037-

039-041-300300-

/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0699.110729T1840Z-110730T0300Z/

NJ

. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN

ESSEX GLOUCESTER HUDSON

HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX

MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN

PASSAIC SOMERSET SUSSEX

UNION WARREN

NYC005-007-015-017-021-023-025-027-039-047-061-071-077-079-081-

085-087-105-107-109-111-119-300300-

/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0699.110729T1840Z-110730T0300Z/

NY

. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BRONX BROOME CHEMUNG

CHENANGO COLUMBIA CORTLAND

DELAWARE DUTCHESS GREENE

KINGS NEW YORK ORANGE

OTSEGO PUTNAM QUEENS

RICHMOND ROCKLAND SULLIVAN

TIOGA TOMPKINS ULSTER

WESTCHESTER

PAC001-009-011-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-033-035-037-041-043-

045-055-057-061-067-069-071-075-077-079-081-087-089-091-093-095-

097-099-101-103-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-127-131-133-

300300-

/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0699.110729T1840Z-110730T0300Z/

PA

. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS BEDFORD BERKS

BLAIR BRADFORD BUCKS

CAMBRIA CARBON CENTRE

CHESTER CLEARFIELD CLINTON

COLUMBIA CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN

DELAWARE FRANKLIN FULTON

HUNTINGDON JUNIATA LACKAWANNA

LANCASTER LEBANON LEHIGH

LUZERNE LYCOMING MIFFLIN

MONROE MONTGOMERY MONTOUR

NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND PERRY

PHILADELPHIA PIKE SCHUYLKILL

SNYDER SOMERSET SULLIVAN

SUSQUEHANNA TIOGA UNION

WAYNE WYOMING YORK

ANZ338-300300-

/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0699.110729T1840Z-110730T0300Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

NEW YORK HARBOR

ATTN...WFO...OKX...CTP...BGM...PHI...ALY...

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 699

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

240 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY

SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK

CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA

COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL

1100 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST OF

STATE COLLEGE PENNSYLVANIA TO 30 MILES NORTH OF NEW YORK CITY NEW

YORK. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED

WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND

INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT

FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH

MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY. AREA VAD DATA INDICATE THAT SHORT WAVE

TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BELT OF 40-50 KT WLY WINDS IN THE

MIDLEVELS OVER NRN PA/SRN NY WHERE THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR

SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR

DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...INSTABILITY

INCREASES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH

DEVELOPING LINE SEGMENTS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS. A TORNADO WILL ALSO

BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY MATURE SUPERCELLS THAT CAN FAVORABLY INTERACT

WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD THROUGH NERN PA/SERN NY.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 27030.

...MEAD

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I agree that the SVR was the right move. While some bow-enhanced spin-up are certainly possible or a supercell, it just looks too isolated for a TOR. But the backing winds at IPT and SEG with the trough is a bit alarming.

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warning on the complex southeast of bgm now

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

NORTHEASTERN BRADFORD COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

NORTHWESTERN SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT.

* AT 235 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS

OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WINDHAM...AND MOVING

SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT.

* AT 314 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR

MONTROSE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

MONTROSE BY 326 PM EDT...

6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEW MILFORD BY 338 PM EDT...

6 MILES NORTHEAST OF HOP BOTTOM BY 346 PM EDT...

HARFORD BY 348 PM EDT...

GIBSON BY 352 PM EDT...

ROYAL BY 402 PM EDT...

WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT

1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT [email protected].

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY

AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.

WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A

TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A

STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

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The only hindrance to this growing supercell will be the other cells rapidly firing to its south. Even the new shower along the NE PA/NY border could be trouble.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY

338 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0253 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 W WARREN CENTER 41.93N 76.19W

07/29/2011 BRADFORD PA PUBLIC

REPORT OF A SUGAR SHACK DESTROYED... ONE LARGE TREE

DESTROYED AND A LARGE PORTION OF ANOTHER TREE DAMAGED.

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