ag3 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 New HRRR. Mother of god alert: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Hour 7. Same timing as the spc-wrf: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 Blue box is out 476 WWUS30 KWNS 291836 SAW9 SPC AWW 291836 WW 699 SEVERE TSTM NJ NY PA CW 291840Z - 300300Z AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE.. 30W UNV/STATE COLLEGE PA/ - 30N JFK/NEW YORK CITY NY/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM N/S /20WSW PSB - 26N JFK/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030. LAT...LON 41937841 42157377 39977377 39757841 THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS FOR WOU9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 WOUS64 KWNS 291836 WOU9 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 699 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 240 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 699 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS NJC003-005-007-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-037- 039-041-300300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0699.110729T1840Z-110730T0300Z/ NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN ESSEX GLOUCESTER HUDSON HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN PASSAIC SOMERSET SUSSEX UNION WARREN NYC005-007-015-017-021-023-025-027-039-047-061-071-077-079-081- 085-087-105-107-109-111-119-300300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0699.110729T1840Z-110730T0300Z/ NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRONX BROOME CHEMUNG CHENANGO COLUMBIA CORTLAND DELAWARE DUTCHESS GREENE KINGS NEW YORK ORANGE OTSEGO PUTNAM QUEENS RICHMOND ROCKLAND SULLIVAN TIOGA TOMPKINS ULSTER WESTCHESTER PAC001-009-011-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-033-035-037-041-043- 045-055-057-061-067-069-071-075-077-079-081-087-089-091-093-095- 097-099-101-103-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-127-131-133- 300300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0699.110729T1840Z-110730T0300Z/ PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BEDFORD BERKS BLAIR BRADFORD BUCKS CAMBRIA CARBON CENTRE CHESTER CLEARFIELD CLINTON COLUMBIA CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN DELAWARE FRANKLIN FULTON HUNTINGDON JUNIATA LACKAWANNA LANCASTER LEBANON LEHIGH LUZERNE LYCOMING MIFFLIN MONROE MONTGOMERY MONTOUR NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND PERRY PHILADELPHIA PIKE SCHUYLKILL SNYDER SOMERSET SULLIVAN SUSQUEHANNA TIOGA UNION WAYNE WYOMING YORK ANZ338-300300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0699.110729T1840Z-110730T0300Z/ CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE NEW YORK HARBOR ATTN...WFO...OKX...CTP...BGM...PHI...ALY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 the pic of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 699 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 240 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL 1100 PM EDT. HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST OF STATE COLLEGE PENNSYLVANIA TO 30 MILES NORTH OF NEW YORK CITY NEW YORK. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY. AREA VAD DATA INDICATE THAT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BELT OF 40-50 KT WLY WINDS IN THE MIDLEVELS OVER NRN PA/SRN NY WHERE THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEVELOPING LINE SEGMENTS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS. A TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY MATURE SUPERCELLS THAT CAN FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD THROUGH NERN PA/SERN NY. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030. ...MEAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I agree that the SVR was the right move. While some bow-enhanced spin-up are certainly possible or a supercell, it just looks too isolated for a TOR. But the backing winds at IPT and SEG with the trough is a bit alarming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 holy s*** at the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 warning on the complex southeast of bgm now THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN BRADFORD COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... NORTHWESTERN SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... * UNTIL 330 PM EDT. * AT 235 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WINDHAM...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 That complex is now moving on a more south heading...this could get good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Sun trying to work through the clouds here, very humid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 now developing rotation just north of le rayesville. weak and elevated but it's there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Hook looking feature on the cell near BGM... couplet ill defined, but radar is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 meant to post the srv scan--my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Very good agreement with all the mesoscale models. SPC-WRF and HRRR in agreement with a line coming thru around 7pmish. NMM also agrees: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 The FWN ob is pretty "supercell-like." If this right-turns, it could be very interesting for Orange and Sussex counties in an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 The FWN ob is pretty "supercell-like." If this right-turns, it could be very interesting for Orange and Sussex counties in an hour. That's what I was just thinking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 The FWN ob is pretty "supercell-like." If this right-turns, it could be very interesting for Orange and Sussex counties in an hour. Thats only like 12 miles from as a crows flies. Could be a interesting evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 88.3/78 right now in Monmouth, getting much sunnier.Temps skyrocketing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 We are pushing tornado warning issuance here. Getting close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 Yeah that couplet is tightening the last few scans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... * UNTIL 415 PM EDT. * AT 314 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MONTROSE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... MONTROSE BY 326 PM EDT... 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEW MILFORD BY 338 PM EDT... 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF HOP BOTTOM BY 346 PM EDT... HARFORD BY 348 PM EDT... GIBSON BY 352 PM EDT... ROYAL BY 402 PM EDT... WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT [email protected]. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS! DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 The only hindrance to this growing supercell will be the other cells rapidly firing to its south. Even the new shower along the NE PA/NY border could be trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 The only hindrance to this growing supercell will be the other cells rapidly firing to its south. Even the new shower along the NE PA/NY border could be trouble. That one is showing a e/ne movement http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=BGM&type=N0R&showstorms=10&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 The SPC WRF seems spot on thus far...sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 The SPC WRF seems spot on thus far...sick. As the storms approach the tristate area they are suppose to be in the form of a bow echo/squall line type not a discrete supercell type as they are now correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 As the storms approach the tristate area they are suppose to be in the form of a bow echo/squall line type not a discrete supercell type as they are now correct? yes, that's the most likely scenario as a cold pool develops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 338 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0253 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 W WARREN CENTER 41.93N 76.19W 07/29/2011 BRADFORD PA PUBLIC REPORT OF A SUGAR SHACK DESTROYED... ONE LARGE TREE DESTROYED AND A LARGE PORTION OF ANOTHER TREE DAMAGED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 wow...a sugar shack tragedy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 18z NAM now on board also for storms right around NYC. 6pm-9pm timeframe. Same as the other models: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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