earthlight Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 Also a 5% tornado risk area directly over NJ/EPA/NYC/SE NY ..OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC COAST EWD PROGRESSION OF WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND LARGER-SCALE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A CORRIDOR OF HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE D1 PERIOD. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE LOW NEAR TORONTO WILL DEVELOP ENEWD...REACHING THE ADIRONDACKS BY EVENING WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LATE MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA INDICATE GRADUALLY DEEPENING CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF WRN NY ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF ABOVE-MENTIONED VORTICITY MAXIMUM WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO AROUND 80 F. EXPECT A FURTHER INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF DENSER...MORE PERSISTENT CLOUDS /I.E. SRN NY INTO PA/ WHERE LOCALLY STRONG DIABATIC WARMING AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL BOOST MLCAPE TO 1500-2500 J/KG. MOREOVER...THIS CORRIDOR WILL RESIDE ALONG SRN FRINGE OF 40-50 KT WLY MIDLEVEL WIND MAXIMUM ATTENDANT TO THE LAKE ONTARIO VORTICITY MAXIMUM...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORM MODES...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES. WHILE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE DE AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Pretty impressive, and I think most would be happy if that verifies.. Yep. It is effing disgusting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Yep. It is effing disgusting out. Looking outside after reading the discussion put out by earthlight by the spc makes me think twice about what they said in that haha. Once it clears up though I still believe. Its gonna go downhill quick in a good way though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 In non-zulu time, Eastern time, when do we expect the storms to hit NYC? Need to make an airport run later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I'm thinking between 5 and 8pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 SPC WRF at 12z is a monster hit, wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I'm thinking between 5 and 8pm ah crap...ok thanks for the reply Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 SPC WRF brings a severe squall line/mcs through the entire area between 22-00z tonight...roughly 6-9pm depending on your location...later to the south and east. the model specifically would advertise the potential for widespread wind damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Meso. disc. out MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1781 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS PA...NJ...NY. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 291657Z - 291900Z SVR POTENTIAL FCST TO INCREASE THROUGH NEXT 2-3 HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES...BOTH IN BOUNDARY LAYER AND ALOFT. DAMAGING GUSTS ARE MAIN CONCERN...WITH CONDITIONAL TORNADO POTENTIAL. MCV IS EVIDENT IN COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY LOOPS OVER ERN LAKE ONT AND ADJOINING SERN ONT...AND SHOULD MOVE EWD TO EXTREME NRN NY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EVIDENT IN AVAILABLE VWP SAMPLING...CONSISTENT WITH TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENTS BOTH S OF MCV AND IN ADVANCE OF APCHG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS IS INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN PA AND ADJOINING PORTIONS NY. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 40-50 KT SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS THIS AREA BY 19Z...AS TSTMS DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE. BUOYANCY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF CLOUD BREAKS ACROSS PORTIONS SRN NY AND NRN PA EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY. INSOLATION AND SFC DEW POINTS 70S F WILL OFFSET WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WARM-SECTOR MLCAPE RANGING FROM AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN NY TO 2500 J/KG OVER SOME OF CENTRAL-ERN PA. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT FROM S-CENTRAL NJ NWWD ACROSS ERN PA...BECOMING ILL-DEFINED AMIDST COOLING EFFECTS OF EARLIER CLOUDS/PRECIP OVER CENTRAL NY JUST N PA BORDER. COMBINED WARM FRONT AND DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS SRN NY AND NERN PA THROUGH AFTERNOON...SPREADING FAVORABLY DESTABILIZING AIR MASS NEWD. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED INVOF THAT BOUNDARY WHERE BACKING OF SFC WINDS AND ENHANCED BOUNDARY-LAYER VORTICITY WILL BE PRESENT...SUPPORTING SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WITH ANY RELATIVELY SUSTAINED/DISCRETE TSTMS. OTHERWISE...DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC PROFILE FAVORS DAMAGING GUSTS...WHETHER IN ISOLATED FORM FROM DISCRETE CELLS OR BETTER-ORGANIZED WIND POTENTIAL FROM BOW ECHOES. ..EDWARDS.. 07/29/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 SPC WRF at 12z is a monster hit, wow! Sounds like a reaction to a model run for an upcoming blizzard lol. What is it showing earthlight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 Here is the link to the model. For those who don't know...this model has predicted exact locations of thunderstorms 24 hours in advance at a consistency which I have never seen. It has it's flaws...and you have to know how to use it...but it is a jewel amongst otherwise flawed mesoscale and convective prediction model schemes. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/12/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Here is the link to the model. For those who don't know...this model has predicted exact locations of thunderstorms 24 hours in advance at a consistency which I have never seen. It has it's flaws...and you have to know how to use it...but it is a jewel amongst otherwise flawed mesoscale and convective prediction model schemes. http://www.emc.ncep....nt4km/conus/12/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 wow...and what time is that frame from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 wow...and what time is that frame from? That's hour 11...which is 11 hours from 12z. So 23z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Mother of... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Here is the link to the model. For those who don't know...this model has predicted exact locations of thunderstorms 24 hours in advance at a consistency which I have never seen. It has it's flaws...and you have to know how to use it...but it is a jewel amongst otherwise flawed mesoscale and convective prediction model schemes. http://www.emc.ncep....nt4km/conus/12/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Mother of... Great minds think alike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 That is hour 11 from 12z. So 7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 mother of god post in July. This is gonna be a good winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I hope it does not verify.I used to look foward to these types of setups and be crushed when they did not happen.......then came 9/16/10 and that changed my enthusiam about severe weather forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 mother of god post in July. This is gonna be a good winter haha Thanks for the link. You guys able to get under some sun up there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I'll be headed to a wedding in monmouth county so I'm sure that area will be a miss and my house will get blasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 NVA is doing its job with clearing out some cloud debris. The wind shear coming in with the s/w is pretty freagin good, probably the best speed shear of the year. All the other events were lacking under h7. The differential heating boundary is going to focus either a supercell or a bow-head structure capable of rotation. Given how this year has gone, it will probably be NE PA into NW NJ. A 10 degree drop in temperature currently exists from NE NJ to SW CT, so perhaps NYC is in this threat too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 mother of god post in July. This is gonna be a good winter To cover for the poss. hail :mapstorm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 NVA is doing its job with clearing out some cloud debris. The wind shear coming in with the s/w is pretty freagin good, probably the best speed shear of the year. All the other events were lacking under h7. The differential heating boundary is going to focus either a supercell or a bow-head structure capable of rotation. Given how this year has gone, it will probably be NE PA into NW NJ. A 10 degree drop in temperature currently exists from NE NJ to SW CT, so perhaps NYC is in this threat too. There was a few good storms in Pike County, Pa. this year, they could be the winners again later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 NVA is doing its job with clearing out some cloud debris. The wind shear coming in with the s/w is pretty freagin good, probably the best speed shear of the year. All the other events were lacking under h7. The differential heating boundary is going to focus either a supercell or a bow-head structure capable of rotation. Given how this year has gone, it will probably be NE PA into NW NJ. A 10 degree drop in temperature currently exists from NE NJ to SW CT, so perhaps NYC is in this threat too. Interesting timing with the warm front/differential heating boundary moving northward throughout the day today. I agree with the potential rotation along that boundary given the low level shear and backing wind profiles evident on soundings from the past few NAM runs. Right now it's a waiting game. The shortwave/vorticity was not modeled to reach north/central PA until 18z. So within the next hour or so we should see some development there. Then the kinematic support and southeastward motion can work it's magic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 There was a few good storms in Pike County, Pa. this year, they could be the winners again later on. I agree that NE PA has been the spot this year (again). This line will rapidly fire in the deep theta-e ridge across E-C PA and ultimately the Delaware Valley 4-8pm. I think the northern edge will be occasionally tornadic...I just don't know where that will be right now. We all agree that discrete supercells out ahead of the line is looking a bit unlikely and this will like be a QLCS (I hate this term) with occasional spin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 This is all really curiously well timed to the be honest---you can see the shortwave and vorticity now over North Central PA on mesoscale analysis, and it's juxtaposed with 50+kts of 0-6km bulk shear. The 0-3km helicity is also well increased in that area..up over 100 m2/s2 over the last hour. That one updraft just north of the PA border west of BGM is just barely straddling north of the impressive numbers..currently sitting in 45kts of effective bulk shear and 200 m2/s2 of 0-3km helicity. Surface based instability increases dramatically to it's southwest..so we will see if that's the tipping point for development. Otherwise back to the west-southwest of that feature..it looks like we're close to kickoff given the latest visible scan. http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/LongIsland/current/LongIsland.vis.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Interesting timing with the warm front/differential heating boundary moving northward throughout the day today. I agree with the potential rotation along that boundary given the low level shear and backing wind profiles evident on soundings from the past few NAM runs. Right now it's a waiting game. The shortwave/vorticity was not modeled to reach north/central PA until 18z. So within the next hour or so we should see some development there. Then the kinematic support and southeastward motion can work it's magic. The vort max is currently over W NY, lobing down into NW PA. It should be intersecting the MLCAPE axis in another hour. That is when our wonderful mesos do initiate the convection (19z). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 This is all really curiously well timed to the be honest---you can see the shortwave and vorticity now over North Central PA on mesoscale analysis, and it's juxtaposed with 50+kts of 0-6km bulk shear. The 0-3km helicity is also well increased in that area..up over 100 m2/s2 over the last hour. That one updraft just north of the PA border west of BGM is just barely straddling north of the impressive numbers..currently sitting in 45kts of effective bulk shear and 200 m2/s2 of 0-3km helicity. Surface based instability increases dramatically to it's southwest..so we will see if that's the tipping point for development. Otherwise back to the west-southwest of that feature..it looks like we're close to kickoff given the latest visible scan. http://climate.cod.e...gIsland.vis.gif Sorry, didn't see this. Looks like we agree! Game on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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