blizzardof09 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 This mornings rainfall won't have any effect on this afternoons storm potential will it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Best stuff will be north of the area, like it always is. You guys know how this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Going to be a lot of clouds in and around the city and on the coast, not sure how much this area clears out, if at all. Further W and N&W should clear out into the Hudson Valley NW Jersey. 6Z NAM couldnt look more different from the 00z stormagedon, so 12z will be interesting. agree--too much in the way of debris cloudiness today....bust o rama coming and maybe a shower if we're lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Best stuff will be north of the area, like it always is. You guys know how this goes. I don't know, the way earthlight explained it in his briefing about todays severe weather looks like we have pretty decent shot of getting some intense weather today. The way this year has gone north of us gets the action though but I guess we will see only time is gonna tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Anyone have a radar loop from the rains earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Anyone have a radar loop from the rains earlier? About .3 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 About .3 here Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Shoot me down if wrong, but bust-o-rama coming, always happens andddd we have mr clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 It's overcast here up into the Hudson Valley too... not optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 6z NAM is not as aggressive as 0z, but it still has decent storms in NYC. GFS is pretty much in agreement, except a little wetter for NYC, LI and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 How some of us can react to some morning clouds/early morning rain and calling for a bust for a convective event not progged to unfold until after sunset is more premature/anxiety driven than accurately depicted. These clouds will set up a thermal boundary which the storms will initiate and ride upon. You can clearly see the divide on the latest visible shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 How some of us can react to some morning clouds/early morning rain and calling for a bust for a convective event not progged to unfold until after sunset is more premature/anxiety driven than accurately depicted. These clouds will set up a thermal boundary which the storms will initiate and ride upon. You can clearly see the divide on the latest visible shots. Right now I'm in the wait and see mode I'm not writing anything off simply because of the fact that some of our biggest storms have caught us off gaurd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Just to show you how important sun and destabalization is today, the upton 12z sounding, big pile of YUCK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 12z NAM keeps the activity south of NYC. It appears, it keeps it in the area to the south, that according to visible satellite, has some sun and will continue to have more and more sun, as the day goes on: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 FWIW. 12z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 Sun has popped through the clouds here. Given that it's only 11 am and the storms are not forecast to impact our area until after 00z, I think some people could use a dose of patience before declaring a severe weather event over in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 12z NAM keeps the activity south of NYC. It appears, it keeps it in the area to the south, that according to visible satellite, has some sun and will continue to have more and more sun, as the day goes on: Yeah, NAM bullseye's my area now. I still haven't cleared out, 78F and OVC, but vis satellite looks like clearing will occur soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 Lots of clearing pushing through Central/Northeast PA and expanding into New Jersey as high clouds burn off http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/LongIsland/current/LongIsland.vis.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Sun has popped through the clouds here. Given that it's only 11 am and the storms are not forecast to impact our area until after 00z, I think some people could use a dose of patience before declaring a severe weather event over in the morning. Just to be clear and fair, make sure there is separation between the group of people calling bust and the group of people who are talking about limiting factors, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Just to be clear and fair, make sure there is separation between the group of people calling bust and the group of people who are talking about limiting factors, etc. Doesn't the overcast/rainy weather this morning limit the chances of any good action this afternoon though not completely make the threat nill? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Full sun in edison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 FWIW the 13Z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 FWIW the 13Z HRRR Pretty impressive, and I think most would be happy if that verifies.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Not at all...this isnt april where we are stuck in the 50s....we have plenty of time for clearing and heating/destabilization Doesn't the overcast/rainy weather this morning limit the chances of any good action this afternoon though not completely make the threat nill? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Doesn't the overcast/rainy weather this morning limit the chances of any good action this afternoon though not completely make the threat nill? It can sometimes act as a stabalizing force and but with full sunshine the atmosphere will destabilize very very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Pretty impressive, and I think most would be happy if that verifies.. check out that super cell south of Albany on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermanchild Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 It is trying to clear all the way up the the NY/PA boarder. Also, look at that leftover boundary; tracking nicely across W PA and will be the trigger for the storms this afternoon. On radar loops, I can also see an MCV/ meso-low on the NY/PA boarder just E of Eerie, PA tracking E. the HRRR absolutely nailed this feature so far for its 09-12Z runs (check composite radar loops). This could be a very windy late afternoon for TTN and surrounding areas. DCAPE up near 1000 for this area, ML CAPe > 2000 widespread (very soon) AND some helicity in the area too. So far the cumulus field forming in C Pa looks promising. ALSO, the Upton, NY sounding is not half bad... The Convective T is equivalent to the Max T there so once they clear out, that area should get storms too. It all depends on exactly where the cold pool forms; because once the storms pop and form the cold pool it is driving straight to the NJ shore (in a southeasterly direction so the DE shore too). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 It is trying to clear all the way up the the NY/PA boarder. Also, look at that leftover boundary; tracking nicely across W PA and will be the trigger for the storms this afternoon. On radar loops, I can also see an MCV/ meso-low on the NY/PA boarder just E of Eerie, PA tracking E. the HRRR absolutely nailed this feature so far for its 09-12Z runs (check composite radar loops). This could be a very windy late afternoon for TTN and surrounding areas. DCAPE up near 1000 for this area, ML CAPe > 2000 widespread (very soon) AND some helicity in the area too. So far the cumulus field forming in C Pa looks promising. ALSO, the Upton, NY sounding is not half bad... The Convective T is equivalent to the Max T there so once they clear out, that area should get storms too. It all depends on exactly where the cold pool forms; because once the storms pop and form the cold pool it is driving straight to the NJ shore (in a southeasterly direction so the DE shore too). which is why I said clearing out was key when I posted the sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 Now a 30% area extending into NW NJ right near the heating boundary. This higher risk area could theoretically extend south east towards the coast if cold pool development occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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