psnnstater77 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 With my untrained quick looking of models here is what I get so far from Sunday-Monday storm. Latest 12GFS has low tracking directly over us and then a new one taking over on the coast. My guess would be that warm air ahead of the storm would bring rain on Sunday turning to snow sunday night and monday? Anybody with more experience want to add their input? I know it is still very early and models will change. At least we still have something to track. NWS is going with this too... Give me a blizzard or a washout.. I don't want ice at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 12z GFS is rain to snow showers for PIT. 700 mb low goes NW of PIT. Not good for any significant synoptic snow in W PA. Quite cold behind the storm though...maybe some LES but winds seem to be too northerly for a good fetch. Btw, the 0z ECMWF is in general agreement with the 12z GFS for sensible wx impacts in PIT. The ECMWF might have better upper level wind profile for LES/lake-enhanced snow behind the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Hi all....good to see you all again...Thanks Black and Gold for hitting me up with the new URL.....Let's get the snow machine cranking again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Hi all....good to see you all again...Thanks Black and Gold for hitting me up with the new URL.....Let's get the snow machine cranking again! What did happen over at Eastern? Was it a money issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 NWS is going with this too... Give me a blizzard or a washout.. I don't want ice at all. DT noticed that also, the East based NAO and the action out in the EastPAC was throwing a monkey wrench into the low coming east. I suspect we will see some more waffling on the models, east then west then east...then settle on some solution by the end of the week. We got lucky last Winter not many Lucy pulling the football away type deals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 DT noticed that also, the East based NAO and the action out in the EastPAC was throwing a monkey wrench into the low coming east. I suspect we will see some more waffling on the models, east then west then east...then settle on some solution by the end of the week. We got lucky last Winter not many Lucy pulling the football away type deals. Are you pburgh01? Welcome back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 What did happen over at Eastern? Was it a money issue? I think one of the threads said something about one of the people running it got sick or something?....but Im not positive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 12z GFS is rain to snow showers for PIT. 700 mb low goes NW of PIT. Not good for any significant synoptic snow in W PA. Quite cold behind the storm though...maybe some LES but winds seem to be too northerly for a good fetch. Btw, the 0z ECMWF is in general agreement with the 12z GFS for sensible wx impacts in PIT. The ECMWF might have better upper level wind profile for LES/lake-enhanced snow behind the storm. Pertaining to today's 12z GFS I agree, very bad setup for snow in our area and I would bet we start as rain and stay as rain until we get some wrap around should today's 12z verify. I would put money on the more western solution now but with the wild jumps from run to run I wouldn't be surprised to see things change. Lets see if the 12z ECMWF holds close to its 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Are you pburgh01? Welcome back! That's me! Needed my weather fix! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Go back the last 8 model runs, which have shown a major hit for us on the GFS Model, only 2 of those runs show minor differences with some mixing issues, but based on what is going on in the model trends, this sets us up for a major snowstorm or blizzard I have a gut feeling, and i think schools could be closed for several days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawx1 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 . from pitt. LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --HIGHLIGHTS * BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE * UNCERTAINTY IN STORM TRACK AND PTYPE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY * LAKE EFFECT / ENHANCED SNOW EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK NAO FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE NEGATIVE WHICH INDICATES BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST. LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES ARE SLOWLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK SUN NGT AND MON. GEFS MSLP STANDARD DEVIATIONS /STD/ OF -4 TO -5 ARE FORECAST...WHILE H8 TEMPS ARE ON THE ORDER OF -2 TO -3 STD. THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS SHIFTED THE CYCLONE TRACK WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. THE LATTER WAS ELECTED TO CONSTRUCT THE LONG RANGE DIGITAL DATABASE. FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS AS LONG RANGE MODELS DEVELOP A DEEP CYCLONE AS IT TRACKS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE BELOW 980MB PROGGED BY 12Z MON IN NEW ENGLAND. DID NOT GET TO FANCY WITH PTYPE...RAN WITH A RAIN / SNOW MIX AND LET THE DETAILS BE WORKED OUT AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. INTRODUCED VERBIAGE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK /HWO/ REGARDING THE POTENTIAL WINTER STORM. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH THE LAKE ENHANCED / OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS IN WAKE OF THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE. H8 TEMPS ARE FORECAST AROUND -15C AND WITH ANOTHER LAKE HURON CONNECTION SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON THE BACK SIDE COULD MIRROR WHAT HAS BEEN RECEIVED OVER THE PAST 48 TO 72 HOURS. ANOTHER THING TO WATCH OUT FOR NEXT WEEK IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS...ALSO WILL INCLUDE THAT IN THE HWO THIS AFTERNOON.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psnnstater77 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Go back the last 8 model runs, which have shown a major hit for us on the GFS Model, only 2 of those runs show minor differences with some mixing issues, but based on what is going on in the model trends, this sets us up for a major snowstorm or blizzard I have a gut feeling, and i think schools could be closed for several days Mets can't go off gut feelings..The latest models are going away from a huge hit and more of a slop storm. There is time to go back, but that line is way to close for my liking. I think we could have a cold rain with some mixing, don't know how much moisture Pittsburgh will have on backside for some snow showers. Anyways, its snowing as hard now as it has the last two days. I can see me getting another 2-4 tonight, which would bring me up to 10-12 for this event. Chickoree Mt was at 16" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Mets can't go off gut feelings..The latest models are going away from a huge hit and more of a slop storm. There is time to go back, but that line is way to close for my liking. I think we could have a cold rain with some mixing, don't know how much moisture Pittsburgh will have on backside for some snow showers. Anyways, its snowing as hard now as it has the last two days. I can see me getting another 2-4 tonight, which would bring me up to 10-12 for this event. Chickoree Mt was at 16" psnnstater77, you are probably loving it right now, here it's been coming down for hours now and some very heavy snow here This storm coming up is like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 wow the 18z gfs is our friend again. western n central areas all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 wow the 18z gfs is our friend again. western n central areas all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 wow the 18z gfs is our friend again. western n central areas all snow Wow! Big shift south which keeps us mostly snow. Not as much moisture but in the cold air. We need to stop the west trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psnnstater77 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 The model switching back and forth really worries me.. Everyone is being very cautious. I still think we see rain at some point early Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psnnstater77 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 BTW, This event should show how hard it is to predict these storms. Its almost like anything over a 12-24 hour forecast is guessing. They had snow dying off today, but now its tomorrow. Wouldn't shock me if we see snow the whole way into Thursday..:snowman::snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 BTW, This event should show how hard it is to predict these storms. Its almost like anything over a 12-24 hour forecast is guessing. They had snow dying off today, but now its tomorrow. Wouldn't shock me if we see snow the whole way into Thursday..:snowman::snowman: Yes, and after this Sunday when the storm comes through we will most likely have 3 or 4 more days of this lake effect activity again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psnnstater77 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Yes, and after this Sunday when the storm comes through we will most likely have 3 or 4 more days of this lake effect activity again. Blah on LES.. I lucked out this time, but its so hit and miss... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PittWeatherWatch Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 242 PM EST TUE DEC 7 2010 OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ020-021-029-031-073-075- WVZ001>004-012-021-022-081945- TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH- MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-WASHINGTON- GREENE-WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL- MARION-MONONGALIA- 242 PM EST TUE DEC 7 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE SOME SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE EASTERN UNITED STATES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK...SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IN WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR DIVING SOUTH FROM CANADA...MAY CREATE SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS EARLY NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Blah on LES.. I lucked out this time, but its so hit and miss... I know but there will be strong winds off the lake and temps will even be colder. A couple inches is fine by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psnnstater77 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I know but there will be strong winds off the lake and temps will even be colder. A couple inches is fine by me. You're probably looking at the same setup as the past 48-72 hours. Some areas saw alot, some none.. I am still not sold on the LES After, I think a few things could go against us for a huge setup. The actual storm is what will be the think to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Blah on LES.. I lucked out this time, but its so hit and miss... Well, you know that's how I feel about LES too and, as usual, I didn't even luck out this time when most of the rest of you seemed to do pretty well with it. We'll just keep watching these crazy models to see where that low is going to go this weekend. Fun to track anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psnnstater77 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Accuweather got to be the greatest weather industry ever.. To give a given forecast this far out. http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/42659/will-weekend-snowstorm-lead-to.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 <br />Accuweather got to be the greatest weather industry ever.. To give a given forecast this far out.<br /><br /> <a href='http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/42659/will-weekend-snowstorm-lead-to.asp' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='nofollow external'>http://www.accuweath...orm-lead-to.asp I wonder what our buddy Henry thinks about the weekend storm? His predictions are usually good for a laugh or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psnnstater77 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Yeah Henry takes weenie to another level.. This event looks to be winding down.. I hope late tomorrow/Thursday we get some sun, I do want to hose my new jeep off, before more snow. :snowman::snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I wonder what our buddy Henry thinks about the weekend storm? His predictions are usually good for a laugh or two. here is what henry think about the storm. http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/42664/updated-big-daddy-map.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 here is what henry think about the storm. http://www.accuweath...g-daddy-map.asp Looks like he has us on the eastern fringe of the heaviest snow possibility....not to say that's real likely right now. Henry still owes me a 25" lollypop from a couple years ago, with the apps runner that never happened (and he said the models only lost it due to a volcano eruption) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 It looks like the 0Z is back to the 12Z with the low moving right over Pittsburgh again. Rain Sunday then snow showers on the back end. The back and forth continues. I feel like this is what we will end up with. The ups and downs of model watching. Ugh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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