weatherman5416 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Also, don't forget what the ratios are going to be. The NAM bufkit shows ratios at 16:0. We really don't need too much QPF to make this a decent event. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_nam/nam_kpit.dat Interestingly enought the NWS has liquid equivalent of .62 http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=pbz&FcstType=graphical&zmx=1&zmy=1&map.x=189&map.y=118&site=PBZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wow, epic collapse by the Pens in the last 2 couple minutes. Hope our storm doesn't end up like the game! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Similar to 18z, maybe wetter around the area, except for that one little dot which i wouldn't really worry about. Well as I said, yesterday the nam was getting us in the .4-.5 range...now we are closer to .25. Just IMO that west and north of pgh is the place to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Not thrilled with that primary surface/mid level low on the NAM going slightly to our north west - however the 0Z taken literally does show between 6" and 7", which was up from a little over 4" on the 18Z. Dry slot really looks like a b**ch in Central PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Not thrilled with that primary surface/mid level low on the NAM going slightly to our north west - however the 0Z taken literally does show between 6" and 7", which was up from a little over 4" on the 18Z. Dry slot really looks like a b**ch in Central PA looks like a 6-10 inch (with most places getting 6 to 8 inches, but localized areas up to 10 inches The Dry Slot seems to go east of the Pittsburgh Metro, out in the mountains to Harrisburg Area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 looks like a 6-10 inch (with most places getting 6 to 8 inches, but localized areas up to 10 inches The Dry Slot seems to go east of the Pittsburgh Metro, out in the mountains to Harrisburg Area It doesn't "look like 8" or "look like10". The NAM is showing 6 or 7", and it tends to have a wet bias. It "looks like" 3 to 6".......anything more than that would take some dramatic changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The Nam seems to have moved the upper level low to our west giving us less qpf but the GFS seems to be a decent shot right over us. I think the Nam has overdone the qpf and the GFS has been dryer. My original call was 4-6. I think it will be more like 3-5. I think we will still see some moderate snow for several hours after rush hour tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If Pitt gets >6", I'll send you 10 hookers, and eat my shorts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If Pitt gets >6", I'll send you 10 hookers, and eat my shorts 00Z GFS at face value is about 8"......little juicier than the NAM actually 6.1" or so isn't out of the question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If Pitt gets >6", I'll send you 10 hookers, and eat my shorts How about me? I didn't predict that, but we'll you send them to me anyway? You don't have to eat your shorts. Just kidding of course. I agree with the consensus that this looks to be a 3-5 type event for the area. Considering that most of us have at least a couple of inches on the ground, we're going to have a nice snow pack for a good while with more opportunities ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wow, the NAM is trending much wetter so close to the event... FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Nam through 60 I'm going with 5- maybe 7 . If everything goes good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Nam through 60 I'm going with 5- maybe 7 . If everything goes good. The 0z and 6z trended wetter, so it's go time. My SWAG(Scientific Wild As* Guess) is at Pitt airport 5", my house 6" and NE of the city 3-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looking at the NAM, and then looking at the actual radar, it appears to me that everything is really 50 miles south of where the NAM is depicting it...looks good for us. Also, just watching the radar...having a very hard time seeing how this goes north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looking at the NAM, and then looking at the actual radar, it appears to me that everything is really 50 miles south of where the NAM is depicting it...looks good for us. Also, just watching the radar...having a very hard time seeing how this goes north of us. I see that also, oh well the Pros would say models are for general trends not for specifics, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looking at the NAM, and then looking at the actual radar, it appears to me that everything is really 50 miles south of where the NAM is depicting it...looks good for us. Also, just watching the radar...having a very hard time seeing how this goes north of us. Hope you are right. Looking at today's 12z NAM did little to bolster my confidence, but it is getting into now cast time. 2-4 synoptic snow then another 1 with LES looks good to me right now. Reading the NWS they stated parts of lake Erie are frozen over so I put even less faith in LES than you would normally early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hope you are right. Looking at today's 12z NAM did little to bolster my confidence, but it is getting into now cast time. 2-4 synoptic snow then another 1 with LES looks good to me right now. Reading the NWS they stated parts of lake Erie are frozen over so I put even less faith in LES than you would normally early in the season. Take it for what it is worth, but the SREF's are quite a bit better for us. My link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hope you are right. Looking at today's 12z NAM did little to bolster my confidence, but it is getting into now cast time. 2-4 synoptic snow then another 1 with LES looks good to me right now. Reading the NWS they stated parts of lake Erie are frozen over so I put even less faith in LES than you would normally early in the season. Don't mean to nitpick but your math does not add up here, we have .40-.50 QPF with the storm with a ratios according the data I saw here an average ratio of 1:15 that is minimum of 6" as progged. I don;t think 2" is in the realm of possibility, so let's throw that out on your low end, not me saying that, the NWS, the local METS and most anyone here on American with a red tag. This is a 4-6" event, the LES is a bonus and not in the NWS discussion in why they have a WWA up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Take it for what it is worth, but the SREF's are quite a bit better for us. My link That surface low looks way West as was progged on the NAM. I have a sneaking suspicion things maybe be better than we thought, snow wise. Could have a real bomb off of Mass\RI, they should do real well NYC\Boston\Providence\Hartford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Don't mean to nitpick but your math does not add up here, we have .40-.50 QPF with the storm with a ratios according the data I saw here an average ratio of 1:15 that is minimum of 6" as progged. I don;t think 2" is in the realm of possibility, so let's throw that out on your low end, not me saying that, the NWS, the local METS and most anyone here on American with a red tag. This is a 4-6" event, the LES is a bonus and not in the NWS discussion in why they have a WWA up. No problem, constructive discussion is what this all about. After looking at things a bit more closely, 2 is probably a bit to low so 3-5 is likely better as even .1 qpf would be 1 and a half inches assuming ratios work out. I have a hard time seeing anyone getting 6 or more from the synoptic snowfall though taking a blend of the NAM and GFS. I always hope for the storm to over produce though so it will be fun to watch how things play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Have you been outside lately? Noticed that its kinda dry out? Ain't no precip hitting the ground before noon. I stand corrected. I saw 3 flakes driving in today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I stand corrected. I saw 3 flakes driving in today I'm seeing some flakes flying right now where I'm at. Sent from my T-Mobile G1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I feel imo, along with the strength and track , where the convergence zone sets up will be key. Pretty much were the most back building occurs. I know thats one of those " yeah no **** " assesments, but its the best I got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Special Weather Statement SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1039 AM EST TUE JAN 11 2011 MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016- 020>023-029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-111945- GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON- JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER- VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER- ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND- WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO- MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE... NEW PHILADELPHIA...DOVER...UHRICHSVILLE...CARROLLTON... EAST LIVERPOOL...SALEM...COLUMBIANA...EAST PALESTINE... WELLSVILLE...CALCUTTA...COSHOCTON...CADIZ...HOPEDALE... STEUBENVILLE...ZANESVILLE...CAMBRIDGE...MARTINS FERRY... ST. CLAIRSVILLE...BELLAIRE...BARNESVILLE...SHADYSIDE... BRIDGEPORT...CALDWELL...WOODSFIELD...SHARON...HERMITAGE... GROVE CITY...GREENVILLE...FARRELL...OIL CITY...FRANKLIN... SUGARCREEK...TIONESTA...NEW CASTLE...ELLWOOD CITY...BUTLER... ZELIENOPLE...CLARION...PUNXSUTAWNEY...BROOKVILLE... REYNOLDSVILLE...BROCKWAY...ALIQUIPPA...BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE... MONACA...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING... FORD CITY...LEECHBURG...FREEPORT...APOLLO...INDIANA... WASHINGTON...CANONSBURG...DONORA...CALIFORNIA...CHARLEROI... MONONGAHELA...MCMURRAY...WAYNESBURG...FAIRDALE...GREENSBURG... NEW KENSINGTON...JEANNETTE...LATROBE...MONESSEN...LIGONIER... DONEGAL...NEW FLORENCE...ACME...CHAMPION...UNIONTOWN... CONNELLSVILLE...POINT MARION...NORMALVILLE...FARMINGTON... OHIOPYLE...MARKLEYSBURG...TORONTO...WEIRTON...WHEELING... MOUNDSVILLE...NEW MARTINSVILLE...FAIRMONT...MORGANTOWN... KINGWOOD...TERRA ALTA...PARSONS...DAVIS...THOMAS 1039 AM EST TUE JAN 11 2011 ...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON... STEADY SNOW WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK BURST OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BEGIN IN THE ZANESVILLE OHIO AND NEW PHILADELPHIA OHIO AREAS BY AROUND 11 AM. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WHEELING WEST VIRGINIA AND MORGANTOWN WEST VIRGINIA AREAS AROUND NOON. THE SNOW WILL IS PREDICTED TO BEGIN IN THE PITTSBURGH... MERCER...GREENSBURG AND CLARION PENNSYLVANIA AREAS BETWEEN 1 PM AND 2 PM. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH GARRETT COUNTY MARYLAND AND PRESTON AND TUCKER COUNTIES AFTER 2 PM. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW MOVES IN...MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT EVENING COMMUTE. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I don't think radar looks too promising... Looks like backside isn't filling in but rather Breaking up :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 FWIW...Current snowfall reports in Illinois and Indiana are all in the 2-4" range... Missouri's highest reports were in 3-5" range Timing of when energy begins to transfer to redeveloping low off of the coast will be an important factor on how high totals could reach. This just appears to be too short of an event once snow gets heavier, along with the energy transfer, to really produce anything even close to 6" in western pa (higher elevations may come close). Lake Erie average surface temperature is around 34F and ice is begining to form in some areas. This storm set up in late November would create some nice LES banding but not as likely now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think the NWS forecast is too low -- this looks like a classic setup with the two lows intersecting. The midwest low will stall out giving an extended period of light to moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 No. I just think Pittsburgh will pick up 6-10 inches from this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 No. I just think Pittsburgh will pick up 6-10 inches from this storm. Nah, I really think you are Northpittweather as well..I hit the report button so we shall see what happens when they check out your IP address. And btw, no, Pitt wil NOT see 6-10 inches of snow..maybe 4-6, but the low is going north of Pitt, we will likely see 1-3 front end snow, then get dry slotted...just not a great set up for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I thought OHSnow was Yitterbaum from eastern? PS: I'm seeing 3-5. We usually underperform in these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.