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Pittsburgh, PA Thread


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Also, don't forget what the ratios are going to be. The NAM bufkit shows ratios at 16:0. We really don't need too much QPF to make this a decent event. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_nam/nam_kpit.dat Interestingly enought the NWS has liquid equivalent of .62 http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=pbz&FcstType=graphical&zmx=1&zmy=1&map.x=189&map.y=118&site=PBZ

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Not thrilled with that primary surface/mid level low on the NAM going slightly to our north west - however the 0Z taken literally does show between 6" and 7", which was up from a little over 4" on the 18Z. Dry slot really looks like a b**ch in Central PA

looks like a 6-10 inch (with most places getting 6 to 8 inches, but localized areas up to 10 inches

The Dry Slot seems to go east of the Pittsburgh Metro, out in the mountains to Harrisburg Area

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looks like a 6-10 inch (with most places getting 6 to 8 inches, but localized areas up to 10 inches

The Dry Slot seems to go east of the Pittsburgh Metro, out in the mountains to Harrisburg Area

It doesn't "look like 8" or "look like10". The NAM is showing 6 or 7", and it tends to have a wet bias.

It "looks like" 3 to 6".......anything more than that would take some dramatic changes.

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The Nam seems to have moved the upper level low to our west giving us less qpf but the GFS seems to be a decent shot right over us. I think the Nam has overdone the qpf and the GFS has been dryer.

My original call was 4-6. I think it will be more like 3-5.

I think we will still see some moderate snow for several hours after rush hour tomorrow.

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If Pitt gets >6", I'll send you 10 hookers, and eat my shorts :whistle:

How about me? I didn't predict that, but we'll you send them to me anyway? You don't have to eat your shorts. :D Just kidding of course. I agree with the consensus that this looks to be a 3-5 type event for the area. Considering that most of us have at least a couple of inches on the ground, we're going to have a nice snow pack for a good while with more opportunities ahead. :snowman:

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Looking at the NAM, and then looking at the actual radar, it appears to me that everything is really 50 miles south of where the NAM is depicting it...looks good for us.

Also, just watching the radar...having a very hard time seeing how this goes north of us.

I see that also, oh well the Pros would say models are for general trends not for specifics, I guess.

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Looking at the NAM, and then looking at the actual radar, it appears to me that everything is really 50 miles south of where the NAM is depicting it...looks good for us.

Also, just watching the radar...having a very hard time seeing how this goes north of us.

Hope you are right. Looking at today's 12z NAM did little to bolster my confidence, but it is getting into now cast time. 2-4 synoptic snow then another 1 with LES looks good to me right now. Reading the NWS they stated parts of lake Erie are frozen over so I put even less faith in LES than you would normally early in the season.

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Hope you are right. Looking at today's 12z NAM did little to bolster my confidence, but it is getting into now cast time. 2-4 synoptic snow then another 1 with LES looks good to me right now. Reading the NWS they stated parts of lake Erie are frozen over so I put even less faith in LES than you would normally early in the season.

Take it for what it is worth, but the SREF's are quite a bit better for us.

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Hope you are right. Looking at today's 12z NAM did little to bolster my confidence, but it is getting into now cast time. 2-4 synoptic snow then another 1 with LES looks good to me right now. Reading the NWS they stated parts of lake Erie are frozen over so I put even less faith in LES than you would normally early in the season.

Don't mean to nitpick but your math does not add up here, we have .40-.50 QPF with the storm with a ratios according the data I saw here an average ratio of 1:15 that is minimum of 6" as progged. I don;t think 2" is in the realm of possibility, so let's throw that out on your low end, not me saying that, the NWS, the local METS and most anyone here on American with a red tag. This is a 4-6" event, the LES is a bonus and not in the NWS discussion in why they have a WWA up.

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Don't mean to nitpick but your math does not add up here, we have .40-.50 QPF with the storm with a ratios according the data I saw here an average ratio of 1:15 that is minimum of 6" as progged. I don;t think 2" is in the realm of possibility, so let's throw that out on your low end, not me saying that, the NWS, the local METS and most anyone here on American with a red tag. This is a 4-6" event, the LES is a bonus and not in the NWS discussion in why they have a WWA up.

No problem, constructive discussion is what this all about. After looking at things a bit more closely, 2 is probably a bit to low so 3-5 is likely better as even .1 qpf would be 1 and a half inches assuming ratios work out. I have a hard time seeing anyone getting 6 or more from the synoptic snowfall though taking a blend of the NAM and GFS.

I always hope for the storm to over produce though so it will be fun to watch how things play out. :popcorn:

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Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

1039 AM EST TUE JAN 11 2011

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-

020>023-029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-111945-

GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-

JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-

VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-

ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-

WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-

MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE...

NEW PHILADELPHIA...DOVER...UHRICHSVILLE...CARROLLTON...

EAST LIVERPOOL...SALEM...COLUMBIANA...EAST PALESTINE...

WELLSVILLE...CALCUTTA...COSHOCTON...CADIZ...HOPEDALE...

STEUBENVILLE...ZANESVILLE...CAMBRIDGE...MARTINS FERRY...

ST. CLAIRSVILLE...BELLAIRE...BARNESVILLE...SHADYSIDE...

BRIDGEPORT...CALDWELL...WOODSFIELD...SHARON...HERMITAGE...

GROVE CITY...GREENVILLE...FARRELL...OIL CITY...FRANKLIN...

SUGARCREEK...TIONESTA...NEW CASTLE...ELLWOOD CITY...BUTLER...

ZELIENOPLE...CLARION...PUNXSUTAWNEY...BROOKVILLE...

REYNOLDSVILLE...BROCKWAY...ALIQUIPPA...BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE...

MONACA...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING...

FORD CITY...LEECHBURG...FREEPORT...APOLLO...INDIANA...

WASHINGTON...CANONSBURG...DONORA...CALIFORNIA...CHARLEROI...

MONONGAHELA...MCMURRAY...WAYNESBURG...FAIRDALE...GREENSBURG...

NEW KENSINGTON...JEANNETTE...LATROBE...MONESSEN...LIGONIER...

DONEGAL...NEW FLORENCE...ACME...CHAMPION...UNIONTOWN...

CONNELLSVILLE...POINT MARION...NORMALVILLE...FARMINGTON...

OHIOPYLE...MARKLEYSBURG...TORONTO...WEIRTON...WHEELING...

MOUNDSVILLE...NEW MARTINSVILLE...FAIRMONT...MORGANTOWN...

KINGWOOD...TERRA ALTA...PARSONS...DAVIS...THOMAS

1039 AM EST TUE JAN 11 2011

...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

STEADY SNOW WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK BURST OF 1 TO 3

INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BEGIN IN THE ZANESVILLE OHIO AND NEW

PHILADELPHIA OHIO AREAS BY AROUND 11 AM.

IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WHEELING WEST VIRGINIA AND MORGANTOWN

WEST VIRGINIA AREAS AROUND NOON.

THE SNOW WILL IS PREDICTED TO BEGIN IN THE PITTSBURGH...

MERCER...GREENSBURG AND CLARION PENNSYLVANIA AREAS BETWEEN 1 PM

AND 2 PM.

ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH GARRETT COUNTY MARYLAND AND

PRESTON AND TUCKER COUNTIES AFTER 2 PM.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE

STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW MOVES IN...MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT EVENING

COMMUTE.

$$

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FWIW...Current snowfall reports in Illinois and Indiana are all in the 2-4" range... Missouri's highest reports were in 3-5" range

Timing of when energy begins to transfer to redeveloping low off of the coast will be an important factor on how high totals could reach. This just appears to be too short of an event once snow gets heavier, along with the energy transfer, to really produce anything even close to 6" in western pa (higher elevations may come close).

Lake Erie average surface temperature is around 34F and ice is begining to form in some areas. This storm set up in late November would create some nice LES banding but not as likely now.

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No. I just think Pittsburgh will pick up 6-10 inches from this storm.

Nah, I really think you are Northpittweather as well..I hit the report button so we shall see what happens when they check out your IP address.

And btw, no, Pitt wil NOT see 6-10 inches of snow..maybe 4-6, but the low is going north of Pitt, we will likely see 1-3 front end snow, then get dry slotted...just not a great set up for us.

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