meatwad Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Not to change the subject off of tomorrow's storm but what it going on with the potential storm this weekend? Is it a clipper? A front? A front with a backend storm? I know it will change often this week but it looks confusing to me. Plus we do have the Steeler game this Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Look at the string of moisture from the Gulf of Campeche. I think we may expect the top end of the forecast snow totals. To steal another posters line of reasoning, this system is over performing the models. Poor Digger, he will be a busy beaver for the next 72-96 hours. 12z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 the gem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Not to change the subject off of tomorrow's storm but what it going on with the potential storm this weekend? Is it a clipper? A front? A front with a backend storm? I know it will change often this week but it looks confusing to me. Plus we do have the Steeler game this Saturday. It looks like several little waves will traverse of WPA this weekend. They look to be spawned from pieces of energy breaking off the low in the PACNW that travel along the arctic front but I cold be wrong. Prior runs these systems were further north, but today it looks like we get another 1-3 inches Saturday evening into Sunday morning, then another 1-3 Sunday night into Monday. Then it looks like another bigger system could be developing for mid next week of course the model truncates after 192, but if it didn't I think that wave would look more impressive than it does on the 204 panel and with blocks weakening hopefully it't wont get pushed out to sea, but I digress that one is to far off to really worry about. Next thing to watch will be how far South the Saturday low tracks after we see how tomorrows system plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It looks like several little waves will traverse of WPA this weekend. They look to be spawned from pieces of energy breaking off the low in the PACNW that travel along the arctic front but I cold be wrong. Prior runs these systems were further north, but today it looks like we get another 1-3 inches Saturday evening into Sunday morning, then another 1-3 Sunday night into Monday. Then it looks like another bigger system could be developing for mid next week of course the model truncates after 192, but if it didn't I think that wave would look more impressive than it does on the 204 panel and with blocks weakening hopefully it't wont get pushed out to sea, but I digress that one is to far off to really worry about. Next thing to watch will be how far South the Saturday low tracks after we see how tomorrows system plays out. (Minus that dopey No. 10, of course) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Is the NWS site slow for anyone else ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Is the NWS site slow for anyone else ? I can't get on it at all right now. "Gateway timeout". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 (Minus that dopey No. 10, of course) Steelers and Ravens in the snow would be very fitting. Too bad the Colts lost Saturday. I'd like to see Manning try and run that offense in this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 319 PM EST MON JAN 10 2011 ...SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... .LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY SPREADING SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP FURTHER EAST AND MOVE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE EAST COAST SYSTEM WEDNESDAY... WITH NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ020-021-029-031-073-075- WVZ001>004-012-021-022-110430- /O.UPG.KPBZ.WS.A.0001.110111T1600Z-110113T0400Z/ /O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0003.110111T1200Z-110113T0000Z/ TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH- MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY- WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO- MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PHILADELPHIA...DOVER... UHRICHSVILLE...CARROLLTON...EAST LIVERPOOL...SALEM...COLUMBIANA... EAST PALESTINE...WELLSVILLE...CALCUTTA...COSHOCTON...CADIZ... HOPEDALE...STEUBENVILLE...ZANESVILLE...CAMBRIDGE... MARTINS FERRY...ST. CLAIRSVILLE...BELLAIRE...BARNESVILLE... SHADYSIDE...BRIDGEPORT...CALDWELL...WOODSFIELD...ALIQUIPPA... BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE...MONACA...BEAVER... PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...WASHINGTON...CANONSBURG...DONORA... CALIFORNIA...CHARLEROI...MONONGAHELA...MCMURRAY...WAYNESBURG... FAIRDALE...GREENSBURG...NEW KENSINGTON...JEANNETTE...LATROBE... MONESSEN...UNIONTOWN...CONNELLSVILLE...POINT MARION...TORONTO... WEIRTON...WHEELING...MOUNDSVILLE...NEW MARTINSVILLE...FAIRMONT... MORGANTOWN 319 PM EST MON JAN 10 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * ACCUMULATION: 3 TO 6 INCHES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. * TIMING: TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS: SNOW COVERED ROADS. AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. * VISIBILITIES: BELOW A MILE AT TIMES. 6 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. REPORT YOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Warning snow accumulations are likely i see a widespread 6+ inch snowstorm on our hands HRRR Model shows precip forming earlier than expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman5416 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Warning snow accumulations are likely i see a widespread 6+ inch snowstorm on our hands HRRR Model shows precip forming earlier than expected It has to be 6 in 12 hours or 8 in 24 hours; therefore this is not going to be warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 319 PM EST MON JAN 10 2011 ...SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... .LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY SPREADING SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP FURTHER EAST AND MOVE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE EAST COAST SYSTEM WEDNESDAY... WITH NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ020-021-029-031-073-075- WVZ001>004-012-021-022-110430- /O.UPG.KPBZ.WS.A.0001.110111T1600Z-110113T0400Z/ /O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0003.110111T1200Z-110113T0000Z/ TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH- MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY- WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO- MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PHILADELPHIA...DOVER... UHRICHSVILLE...CARROLLTON...EAST LIVERPOOL...SALEM...COLUMBIANA... EAST PALESTINE...WELLSVILLE...CALCUTTA...COSHOCTON...CADIZ... HOPEDALE...STEUBENVILLE...ZANESVILLE...CAMBRIDGE... MARTINS FERRY...ST. CLAIRSVILLE...BELLAIRE...BARNESVILLE... SHADYSIDE...BRIDGEPORT...CALDWELL...WOODSFIELD...ALIQUIPPA... BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE...MONACA...BEAVER... PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...WASHINGTON...CANONSBURG...DONORA... CALIFORNIA...CHARLEROI...MONONGAHELA...MCMURRAY...WAYNESBURG... FAIRDALE...GREENSBURG...NEW KENSINGTON...JEANNETTE...LATROBE... MONESSEN...UNIONTOWN...CONNELLSVILLE...POINT MARION...TORONTO... WEIRTON...WHEELING...MOUNDSVILLE...NEW MARTINSVILLE...FAIRMONT... MORGANTOWN 319 PM EST MON JAN 10 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * ACCUMULATION: 3 TO 6 INCHES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. * TIMING: TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS: SNOW COVERED ROADS. AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. * VISIBILITIES: BELOW A MILE AT TIMES. 6 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. REPORT YOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772. && $ WWA, no surprise there. Overall looks like a good call by the NWS thus far. The only thing I keep hearing the snow will start tomorrow morning, but looking at the GFS / NAM light snow doesn't really get into the area until after 18z (1pm) so I am curious what the discrepancy is? EDIT: Never mind the start time, I just reread the discussion and see the NWS said Tuesday Afternoon. Last night and this morning KDKA was mentioning a morning start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It has to be 6 in 12 hours or 8 in 24 hours; therefore this is not going to be warning criteria. 324 PM EST MON JAN 10 2011...SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... .LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY SPREADING SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP FURTHER EAST AND MOVE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE EAST COAST SYSTEM WEDNESDAY... WITH NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. PAZ007>009-013>016-022-023-110445- /O.UPG.KPBZ.WS.A.0001.110111T1600Z-110113T0400Z/ /O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0003.110111T1800Z-110113T0500Z/ MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA- ARMSTRONG-INDIANA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHARON...HERMITAGE...GROVE CITY... GREENVILLE...FARRELL...OIL CITY...FRANKLIN...SUGARCREEK... TIONESTA...NEW CASTLE...ELLWOOD CITY...BUTLER...ZELIENOPLE... CLARION...PUNXSUTAWNEY...BROOKVILLE...REYNOLDSVILLE...BROCKWAY... KITTANNING...FORD CITY...LEECHBURG...FREEPORT...APOLLO...INDIANA 324 PM EST MON JAN 10 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * ACCUMULATION: 3 TO 6 INCHES WILL ACCUMULATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * TIMING: TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS: SNOW COVERED ROADS. AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * VISIBILITIES: BELOW A MILE AT TIMES. looks like a solid 3-6 or 4-8 inch storm i am happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 18z nam much drier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 18z nam much drier... Looks about the same to me, can you post what maps you were looking at. 12z 60 hr precip map 18z 60hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 412 PM EST MON JAN 10 2011 SNOW SHOULD BEGIN AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY FAR SOUTH...AND SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING. SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCH ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. SNOW ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED. AS COASTAL LOW MOVES FURTHER NORTHEAST...FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD KICK IN LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN DECREASE IN COVERAGE THURSDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON WEDNESDAY...COULD CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW Looks like a 3-6 event over 36 hours. Biggest issue will be how much accums prior to the eve rush hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looks about the same to me, can you post what maps you were looking at. 12z 60 hr precip map 18z 60hr If you look you can see a couple dots of the lighter green in western pa. To me, that indicates closer to .25 qpf than the .4 that was being shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 If you look you can see a couple dots of the lighter green in western pa. To me, that indicates closer to .25 qpf than the .4 that was being shown. My best smart as* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM Is underdoing the totals, also the HRRR shows precip moving in before sunrise, i am saying a 4-8 or 5-9 inch snowstorm + lake effect snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 My best smart as* Well...I just wish I could run bufkit but I can't...I'd think that is closer to .3 than .4, which would be the difference between maybe 2-4 and 4-6. 18z is known to under do qpf...I still like 4-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM Is underdoing the totals, also the HRRR shows precip moving in before sunrise, i am saying a 4-8 or 5-9 inch snowstorm + lake effect snow Not likely. Precip before sunrise is virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NAM Is underdoing the totals, also the HRRR shows precip moving in before sunrise, i am saying a 4-8 or 5-9 inch snowstorm + lake effect snow Don't be counting the snow already on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah, Pitt isn't going to get much from the looks of things. Check out these BUFKIT profiles from around the Pitt area: 2.2", 2.0", 2.5", 2.4", 4.3", 4.6", 3.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I agree L.B., overall it's probably gonna be a quick hitter, with mostly everyone maxing out at 2-3" by wed morning. After that the northwest flow be hit or miss, however a few isolated areas could receive another 2-3" by thurs morning. However like most quick hitters, if you happen to be out driving during the height of the snow, things could be a bit difficult, especially on the hilly secondary roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I agree L.B., overall it's probably gonna be a quick hitter, with mostly everyone maxing out at 2-3" by wed morning. After that the northwest flow be hit or miss, however a few isolated areas could receive another 2-3" by thurs morning. However like most quick hitters, if you happen to be out driving during the height of the snow, things could be a bit difficult, especially on the hilly secondary roads. Latest nam is not good. Drier and north...we get dry slotted. I am going to lower my prediction to 2-4 total..with only 1-2 synoptic tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Latest nam is not good. Drier and north...we get dry slotted. I am going to lower my prediction to 2-4 total..with only 1-2 synoptic tomorrow. Link? Wetter through 36 in my opinion, not looking to closely though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Latest nam is not good. Drier and north...we get dry slotted. I am going to lower my prediction to 2-4 total..with only 1-2 synoptic tomorrow. Yeah, latest NAM takes the 700mb low to our north, while earlier 12z, had a broader low that passed over us. Not a good trend imo. If verified as shown 1-3 is probably a good range. Lets hope its wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NAM Is underdoing the totals, also the HRRR shows precip moving in before sunrise, i am saying a 4-8 or 5-9 inch snowstorm + lake effect snow Have you been outside lately? Noticed that its kinda dry out? Ain't no precip hitting the ground before noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Similar to 18z, maybe wetter around the area, except for that one little dot which i wouldn't really worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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