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Pittsburgh, PA Thread


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honestly, just looking a the trends, this thing is moving back west, if your in Eastern Ohio eastward with this, you are going to get hammered

Euro model has been so consistent , and all the models are moving west

people are acting like this is like 36 hours out, it isn't it's like 84 to 120 hours out, so a shift west of another 300 + miles is highly possible

we have a good shot with this

If i was at NWS PITT, i would issue a winter storm watch or blizzard watch tomorrow when the new runs come in overnight

post-1757-0-37536800-1293047416.gif

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honestly, just looking a the trends, this thing is moving back west, if your in Eastern Ohio eastward with this, you are going to get hammered

Euro model has been so consistent , and all the models are moving west

people are acting like this is like 36 hours out, it isn't it's like 84 to 120 hours out, so a shift west of another 300 + miles is highly possible

we have a good shot with this

If i was at NWS PITT, i would issue a winter storm watch or blizzard watch tomorrow when the new runs come in overnight

Why would you issue a blizzard watch when ALL the models show no precip in our area?

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The problem is, I don't think it can come much further west...to be further west I would think it would have to be even stronger, and you aren't going to get much stronger than a 960 low like the models are showing...

You just aren't going to get a 950 low going up the coastal plane, and really at this point, that is about what we would need...

the H5 over ontario and quebec is messing things up

its still in the 100-120+ hour range when things get screwed up

given your proximity, i would keep watching closely

im not sure if the euro is correct in modeling a 965 along the coast, but IF IF IF it is, keep watching, there is no model concensus and a 965 low with not big changes over ontario and quebec could easily ride the coast another 200-300 miles, 5 or so days out, and thats the difference.

again, thats assuming the euro is correct with a megaphase. not sure if it is.

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the H5 over ontario and quebec is messing things up

its still in the 100-120+ hour range when things get screwed up

given your proximity, i would keep watching closely

im not sure if the euro is correct in modeling a 965 along the coast, but IF IF IF it is, keep watching, there is no model concensus and a 965 low with not big changes over ontario and quebec could easily ride the coast another 200-300 miles, 5 or so days out, and thats the difference.

again, thats assuming the euro is correct with a megaphase. not sure if it is.

Trust me, I'll be watching, but I'm not going to get my hopes up. If we get fringed and get 2-4 inches with cold and wind, I will be quite happy.

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I feel like I'm in that movie "Wishmaster" were every wish the person makes ends up being something terrible, ie you wish for a million dollars then your parents get killed in a plain accident and the million you get is from their life insurance. I always wished to see a 93 redux, and well it looks like I may get to see it, only a 200 miles to my east. :lmao:

But really, it won't take much one way or another to get us in it or take us completely out of the game. The fact we are still several days out gives plenty of time to see a westward shift though. I know the map posted was from last nights 00z run, but from what I can tell isn't the 12z run almost the same as last nights run? So that can't be to far off.

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I feel like I'm in that movie "Wishmaster" were every wish the person makes ends up being something terrible, ie you wish for a million dollars then your parents get killed in a plain accident and the million you get is from their life insurance. I always wished to see a 93 redux, and well it looks like I may get to see it, only a 200 miles to my east. :lmao:

But really, it won't take much one way or another to get us in it or take us completely out of the game. The fact we are still several days out gives plenty of time to see a westward shift though. I know the map posted was from last nights 00z run, but from what I can tell isn't the 12z run almost the same as last nights run? So that can't be to far off.

It could go either way. I remember the Jan. 1996 kept coming west and we ended up getting heavy snow. However, for every 1996 storm there are many others that move east and miss us completely. I'd say we have a 30% chance of scoring with this one and a 70% chance of missing out. Just playing the percentages.

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that appears to be last nights 00z run.

Correct, and the operational ECMWF has trended eastward with the western side of the precip shield from the 0z to 12z runs. 0z run had PIT getting some snow from the coastal at 12z Monday but the 12z run has shifted the western edge further east, to say Altoona. However, to attempt to clear up any confusion... the western edge trended east, but the 1" QPF line trended west. The 12z run presents an overall tighter W-E QPF gradient across the VA/MD/PA. To put it lightly... wish I was in DC next weekend! :snowman:

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It appears that northpit has moved on to the mid atlantic page.....here is his blizzard map:

http://www.americanw...storm-forecast/

Looks like he posted that this afternoon. Wonder if his thoughts have changed since then? I suppose being 4-5 days out any scenario is possible but the models don't appear to be in agreement with his map at this point.

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It appears that northpit has moved on to the mid atlantic page.....here is his blizzard map:

http://www.americanw...storm-forecast/

LOL....

Nobody is ripping him too hard because it's good for their backyards too.It's basically a map of March '93, without the mixing/changeover on the east coast. The Low track is a bit east of '93.

Hey, I hope it happens....but it won't be due to some great meteorological insight. But sometimes, it's good to be lucky.

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It appears that northpit has moved on to the mid atlantic page.....here is his blizzard map:

http://www.americanw...storm-forecast/

He forcasted (6-12) 2 weeks ago.

Very extreme.

I have learned my lesson over the years that models from 4-10 days out will give Pittsburgh many snowstorms of over a foot. Then we end up with one every 7 years or so.

I'll still take a 1-2 or 2-4 inch snow this weekend and be happy.

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LOL....you guys need to read the NYC/Philly thread. Mass weenie delusions. The deathblow is coming for those guys, and anyone on there who tries to point it out, well, they get minced apart by the board. The way they act on there...now I remember now why I would root for storms to miss that part of the country.

That whole thread about the storm should be removed, and 80 percent of the posters band....a whole lot of wishcasting.

BTW, its time for certain members of the board, as well as certain mets, to can their EURO love affair. The model has been pretty horrendous this winter.

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Actually, the non phased solution may be better for us. If the Northern energy stays separate longer it may give us a better chance at snow showers than the coastal ever would have. Plus if this thing doesn't blow up it may not be the pattern changer some were calling for so we might get to do this all over again in a week or so? Who knows?

Anyways, looks like a decent band of snow in Butler county right now heading SE ward.

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Actually, the non phased solution may be better for us. If the Northern energy stays separate longer it may give us a better chance at snow showers than the coastal ever would have. Plus if this thing doesn't blow up it may not be the pattern changer some were calling for so we might get to do this all over again in a week or so? Who knows?

Anyways, looks like a decent band of snow in Butler county right now heading SE ward.

Yeah...this change has got an inch or two for christmas back on the table. I'll take it!

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BTW, its time for certain members of the board, as well as certain mets, to can their EURO love affair. The model has been pretty horrendous this winter.

Agreed. People were using its consistency as reason enough to hug it. But last week, it pulled a weird two-run aggressive trend to a strong coastal -- and only 96 hours or less out! This is a difficult pattern in which to forecast... it's not El Nino. I think there may be a tendency to take the increased predictability during El Ninos and apply it to the following non-El Nino winter(s). El Nino tends to be friendly with a slower flow and an abundance of moist disturbances. In La Ninas and neutrals, you take what you can get and hope that by chance you get a phase. Phasing is hard to do in these winters, unless you're in 95-96, ha.

We might end up with a whiter Christmas than those along I-95... who would've thought that yesterday? :snowman:

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Actually, the non phased solution may be better for us. If the Northern energy stays separate longer it may give us a better chance at snow showers than the coastal ever would have. Plus if this thing doesn't blow up it may not be the pattern changer some were calling for so we might get to do this all over again in a week or so? Who knows?

Anyways, looks like a decent band of snow in Butler county right now heading SE ward.

Your right. I have an inch on the ground now and with the cold temperatures we are pretty much guaranteed a white christmas with possibly and inch or so falling on Christmas day.

We also need to keep the cold through next week for the Winter Classic. There were hints that the warmup was coming then but looking at the latest models we may be able to hold onto the cold. It would be nice to get a little snow to go with it.:snowman:

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Euro is the final nail in the coffin for the EC.

Yeah, it was looking bad this morning but I haven't kept tabs on it. Do we look any better now that the phase is a bit later? I suspected we might have a bit more energy in our area if this missed or phased later so we may actually get an inch between now and Monday after Christmas. :lol:

Hopefully it stays cold to seasonal til after the winter classic.

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I am happy that the east coast cities will get there big storm, fine with me

i didn't even need a snowstorm, i got stuff to do on the days afters school

going to make some cash by finding hidden tresures, the storm system near New Years will bring some really unusual temps, possibly record highs, and even thunderstorms possibly

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I am happy that the east coast cities will get there big storm, fine with me

i didn't even need a snowstorm, i got stuff to do on the days afters school

going to make some cash by finding hidden tresures, the storm system near New Years will bring some really unusual temps, possibly record highs, and even thunderstorms possibly

It doesn't look like anyone is getting a storm.

Finding "hidden treasures"?? :unsure:

Record highs? You mean 40's? :arrowhead:

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I don't think we'll see record setting highs next week, but temps moderating back into the mid to upper 30s is more likely, maybe low 40s.

Early outlook for New Years are temps in the 40's. I wonder how warm is too warm for the winter classic?

Wouldn't that be something if there were issues, after the coldest December that I can remember.

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