north pgh Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 My parents are riding a bus up to NYC Monday morning....in one way I am jealous, but in another way, it worries me as well.... I am driving with the family to south central New York on Monday. Why do these things happen when I am traveling. I am almost wishing for a miss out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 honestly, just looking a the trends, this thing is moving back west, if your in Eastern Ohio eastward with this, you are going to get hammered Euro model has been so consistent , and all the models are moving west people are acting like this is like 36 hours out, it isn't it's like 84 to 120 hours out, so a shift west of another 300 + miles is highly possible we have a good shot with this If i was at NWS PITT, i would issue a winter storm watch or blizzard watch tomorrow when the new runs come in overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 honestly, just looking a the trends, this thing is moving back west, if your in Eastern Ohio eastward with this, you are going to get hammered Euro model has been so consistent , and all the models are moving west people are acting like this is like 36 hours out, it isn't it's like 84 to 120 hours out, so a shift west of another 300 + miles is highly possible we have a good shot with this If i was at NWS PITT, i would issue a winter storm watch or blizzard watch tomorrow when the new runs come in overnight Why would you issue a blizzard watch when ALL the models show no precip in our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The problem is, I don't think it can come much further west...to be further west I would think it would have to be even stronger, and you aren't going to get much stronger than a 960 low like the models are showing... You just aren't going to get a 950 low going up the coastal plane, and really at this point, that is about what we would need... the H5 over ontario and quebec is messing things up its still in the 100-120+ hour range when things get screwed up given your proximity, i would keep watching closely im not sure if the euro is correct in modeling a 965 along the coast, but IF IF IF it is, keep watching, there is no model concensus and a 965 low with not big changes over ontario and quebec could easily ride the coast another 200-300 miles, 5 or so days out, and thats the difference. again, thats assuming the euro is correct with a megaphase. not sure if it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 the H5 over ontario and quebec is messing things up its still in the 100-120+ hour range when things get screwed up given your proximity, i would keep watching closely im not sure if the euro is correct in modeling a 965 along the coast, but IF IF IF it is, keep watching, there is no model concensus and a 965 low with not big changes over ontario and quebec could easily ride the coast another 200-300 miles, 5 or so days out, and thats the difference. again, thats assuming the euro is correct with a megaphase. not sure if it is. Trust me, I'll be watching, but I'm not going to get my hopes up. If we get fringed and get 2-4 inches with cold and wind, I will be quite happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Why would you issue a blizzard watch when ALL the models show no precip in our area? i am saying as an if , after tomorrow runs, i wouldn't issue it now, just a special weather statement about it should be a smart thing to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 I feel like I'm in that movie "Wishmaster" were every wish the person makes ends up being something terrible, ie you wish for a million dollars then your parents get killed in a plain accident and the million you get is from their life insurance. I always wished to see a 93 redux, and well it looks like I may get to see it, only a 200 miles to my east. But really, it won't take much one way or another to get us in it or take us completely out of the game. The fact we are still several days out gives plenty of time to see a westward shift though. I know the map posted was from last nights 00z run, but from what I can tell isn't the 12z run almost the same as last nights run? So that can't be to far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I feel like I'm in that movie "Wishmaster" were every wish the person makes ends up being something terrible, ie you wish for a million dollars then your parents get killed in a plain accident and the million you get is from their life insurance. I always wished to see a 93 redux, and well it looks like I may get to see it, only a 200 miles to my east. But really, it won't take much one way or another to get us in it or take us completely out of the game. The fact we are still several days out gives plenty of time to see a westward shift though. I know the map posted was from last nights 00z run, but from what I can tell isn't the 12z run almost the same as last nights run? So that can't be to far off. It could go either way. I remember the Jan. 1996 kept coming west and we ended up getting heavy snow. However, for every 1996 storm there are many others that move east and miss us completely. I'd say we have a 30% chance of scoring with this one and a 70% chance of missing out. Just playing the percentages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 that appears to be last nights 00z run. Correct, and the operational ECMWF has trended eastward with the western side of the precip shield from the 0z to 12z runs. 0z run had PIT getting some snow from the coastal at 12z Monday but the 12z run has shifted the western edge further east, to say Altoona. However, to attempt to clear up any confusion... the western edge trended east, but the 1" QPF line trended west. The 12z run presents an overall tighter W-E QPF gradient across the VA/MD/PA. To put it lightly... wish I was in DC next weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It appears that northpit has moved on to the mid atlantic page.....here is his blizzard map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It appears that northpit has moved on to the mid atlantic page.....here is his blizzard map: http://www.americanw...storm-forecast/ Looks like he posted that this afternoon. Wonder if his thoughts have changed since then? I suppose being 4-5 days out any scenario is possible but the models don't appear to be in agreement with his map at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It appears that northpit has moved on to the mid atlantic page.....here is his blizzard map: http://www.americanw...storm-forecast/ LOL.... Nobody is ripping him too hard because it's good for their backyards too.It's basically a map of March '93, without the mixing/changeover on the east coast. The Low track is a bit east of '93. Hey, I hope it happens....but it won't be due to some great meteorological insight. But sometimes, it's good to be lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It appears that northpit has moved on to the mid atlantic page.....here is his blizzard map: http://www.americanw...storm-forecast/ He forcasted (6-12) 2 weeks ago. Very extreme. I have learned my lesson over the years that models from 4-10 days out will give Pittsburgh many snowstorms of over a foot. Then we end up with one every 7 years or so. I'll still take a 1-2 or 2-4 inch snow this weekend and be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 There is no chance that happens.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 There is no chance that happens.... Don't destroy his dream! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 LOL....you guys need to read the NYC/Philly thread. Mass weenie delusions. The deathblow is coming for those guys, and anyone on there who tries to point it out, well, they get minced apart by the board. The way they act on there...now I remember now why I would root for storms to miss that part of the country. That whole thread about the storm should be removed, and 80 percent of the posters band....a whole lot of wishcasting. BTW, its time for certain members of the board, as well as certain mets, to can their EURO love affair. The model has been pretty horrendous this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 Actually, the non phased solution may be better for us. If the Northern energy stays separate longer it may give us a better chance at snow showers than the coastal ever would have. Plus if this thing doesn't blow up it may not be the pattern changer some were calling for so we might get to do this all over again in a week or so? Who knows? Anyways, looks like a decent band of snow in Butler county right now heading SE ward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Actually, the non phased solution may be better for us. If the Northern energy stays separate longer it may give us a better chance at snow showers than the coastal ever would have. Plus if this thing doesn't blow up it may not be the pattern changer some were calling for so we might get to do this all over again in a week or so? Who knows? Anyways, looks like a decent band of snow in Butler county right now heading SE ward. Yeah...this change has got an inch or two for christmas back on the table. I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 BTW, its time for certain members of the board, as well as certain mets, to can their EURO love affair. The model has been pretty horrendous this winter. Agreed. People were using its consistency as reason enough to hug it. But last week, it pulled a weird two-run aggressive trend to a strong coastal -- and only 96 hours or less out! This is a difficult pattern in which to forecast... it's not El Nino. I think there may be a tendency to take the increased predictability during El Ninos and apply it to the following non-El Nino winter(s). El Nino tends to be friendly with a slower flow and an abundance of moist disturbances. In La Ninas and neutrals, you take what you can get and hope that by chance you get a phase. Phasing is hard to do in these winters, unless you're in 95-96, ha. We might end up with a whiter Christmas than those along I-95... who would've thought that yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Actually, the non phased solution may be better for us. If the Northern energy stays separate longer it may give us a better chance at snow showers than the coastal ever would have. Plus if this thing doesn't blow up it may not be the pattern changer some were calling for so we might get to do this all over again in a week or so? Who knows? Anyways, looks like a decent band of snow in Butler county right now heading SE ward. Your right. I have an inch on the ground now and with the cold temperatures we are pretty much guaranteed a white christmas with possibly and inch or so falling on Christmas day. We also need to keep the cold through next week for the Winter Classic. There were hints that the warmup was coming then but looking at the latest models we may be able to hold onto the cold. It would be nice to get a little snow to go with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Euro is the final nail in the coffin for the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 Euro is the final nail in the coffin for the EC. Yeah, it was looking bad this morning but I haven't kept tabs on it. Do we look any better now that the phase is a bit later? I suspected we might have a bit more energy in our area if this missed or phased later so we may actually get an inch between now and Monday after Christmas. Hopefully it stays cold to seasonal til after the winter classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Greetings western PA folks, how is it looking this Saturday-Monday from Pittsburgh, eastward into the Laurel Highlands? More of same with flurries, snow showers and higher elevation accumulations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It should be just be general snow showers, light accumulations, over the next few days, a It will be cold as well. (barring any changes with the models over the next few days.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Ok, thanks....I appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I am happy that the east coast cities will get there big storm, fine with me i didn't even need a snowstorm, i got stuff to do on the days afters school going to make some cash by finding hidden tresures, the storm system near New Years will bring some really unusual temps, possibly record highs, and even thunderstorms possibly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I don't think we'll see record setting highs next week, but temps moderating back into the mid to upper 30s is more likely, maybe low 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I am happy that the east coast cities will get there big storm, fine with me i didn't even need a snowstorm, i got stuff to do on the days afters school going to make some cash by finding hidden tresures, the storm system near New Years will bring some really unusual temps, possibly record highs, and even thunderstorms possibly It doesn't look like anyone is getting a storm. Finding "hidden treasures"?? Record highs? You mean 40's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I don't think we'll see record setting highs next week, but temps moderating back into the mid to upper 30s is more likely, maybe low 40s. Early outlook for New Years are temps in the 40's. I wonder how warm is too warm for the winter classic? Wouldn't that be something if there were issues, after the coldest December that I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It doesn't look like anyone is getting a storm. Finding "hidden treasures"?? Record highs? You mean 40's? hidden tresures, yeah i like finding goods and collectibles, find old rare things, what not 40s by mid week, temps in the 50s to 60s are possible on new years, then a cold front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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