Thunderhead Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The Euro used to be awesome, but lately it has been having issues. Last Thursday, it was projecting a strong storm near NYC Sunday night into Monday, so about 96 hours out, with a nice snowstorm for E NY into New England. The 0z run last Thursday night then had a radically different, OTS solution. I'm afraid the Euro going it solo is an indication that it could dramatically shift toward an unphased or later phase scenario. Still have until 0z Thursday before the southern shortwave comes ashore in the West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Also, thought I would just give a brief report of snow on the ground as I drove from Albany to the northern PIT suburbs today via I-90 and I-79. Syracuse had deep snow. Snow thinned out around Rochester and the east side of Buffalo. Didn't get to see areas off to the side on the section of I-90 that was hammered around Dec. 1 with the lake-effect band. Not much on the ground again SW of Buffalo through Chautauqua County along the lakeshore. Depth picked up around Erie, lasting into Meadville. Gradual decrease from there to PIT. The NOAA National Snow Analysis (http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/) supports what I saw: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawx1 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 It's on. It's off. it's on. it's off.....I can't take the pressure!!! just kidding. What an event to watch. Thanks to you all who keep the drive alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 It's still probably a little early to say this, but I just don't see us getting much if anything out of this potential storm now. The GFS is well south and OTS, has been consistently well south and ots run after run now, and so are most of the other models. At least far enough south and ots to not affect us much, if at all. Even the 0z Euro looks like it pushed it a little further east than what the 12z was showing. The NWS seems to have the same idea now as well. We went from snow likely on Christmas just a day ago to a 30% chance of snow showers now. I'm certainly not calling anything off yet, since it's still a few days or so away, but I'd say at this point, it doesn't look very good for us in this area (except for digger lol). Just stating how I see things, as of now. We should know better tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digger Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 it doesn't look very good for us in this area (except for digger lol). I just read the AFD before coming here, and was worried that if I posted it, you would all think I was gloating. Don't worry guys, it's still only December... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I just read the AFD before coming here, and was worried that if I posted it, you would all think I was gloating. Don't worry guys, it's still only December... Yep, plenty of season left. At least you won't have to worry about plowing streets on Christmas weekend if this one doesn't work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 It's still probably a little early to say this, but I just don't see us getting much if anything out of this potential storm now. The GFS is well south and OTS, has been consistently well south and ots run after run now, and so are most of the other models. At least far enough south and ots to not affect us much, if at all. Even the 0z Euro looks like it pushed it a little further east than what the 12z was showing. The NWS seems to have the same idea now as well. We went from snow likely on Christmas just a day ago to a 30% chance of snow showers now. I'm certainly not calling anything off yet, since it's still a few days or so away, but I'd say at this point, it doesn't look very good for us in this area (except for digger lol). Just stating how I see things, as of now. We should know better tomorrow. Waayyyy too early. ECMWF brings this thing maybe 50 to 100 miles east of the Delmarva. It's probably less than 100 miles east of the Superstorm track, and with the slowing of the system, still 4 days out. It looks like the 12Z and 0Z was consistent in perhaps giving us a .50 or so QPF. However, despite the fact those in Virginia are yelling no change, the heavy QPF in PA looks to have shifted a bit. The 1" QPF line used to be around Johnstown - but if I recall correctly that is now south and east of Harrisburg. I think the 1" line does however extend into Wva, so a northern shift brings Pittsburgh and east into 1"+ mix. The biggest concern of course is that we are looking for the northern/western outlier to come further north and west. Meanwhile the NCEP models are nowhere close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The Euro used to be awesome, but lately it has been having issues. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/5032-hpc-am-discussion/. The red tags would beg to differ with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PittWeatherWatch Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODELS NOW AT LEAST AGREE THAT INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE ACROSS THE GULF COAST WITH SYSTEM THEN SLIDING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL STAY SOUTH OF REGION BUT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SNOW SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS DEEPENING STORM ALONG OR OFF THE EAST COAST BRINGS STRONG COLD ADVECTION ACROSS REGION. ECMWF STILL HAS A SOLUTION THAT COULD THROW ACCUMULATING SNOW AT LEAST INTO THE RIDGES FROM COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME RANGE AND WITH OTHER MODELS FARTHER EAST WILL NOT HAVE ANY HIGHLIGHTS IN HWO. TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Waayyyy too early. ECMWF brings this thing maybe 50 to 100 miles east of the Delmarva. It's probably less than 100 miles east of the Superstorm track, and with the slowing of the system, still 4 days out. It looks like the 12Z and 0Z was consistent in perhaps giving us a .50 or so QPF. However, despite the fact those in Virginia are yelling no change, the heavy QPF in PA looks to have shifted a bit. The 1" QPF line used to be around Johnstown - but if I recall correctly that is now south and east of Harrisburg. I think the 1" line does however extend into Wva, so a northern shift brings Pittsburgh and east into 1"+ mix. The biggest concern of course is that we are looking for the northern/western outlier to come further north and west. Meanwhile the NCEP models are nowhere close. Yeah this is the big red flag for me too. I think we still at least have snow showers for Christmas and white ground so that is a bonus. I hate having to rely on an extreme outlier solution for a half inch of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 As much as I love snow, with so many people having travel plans this weekend, I am glad its looking like this storm most likely wont verify.. I don't get to see my family that often and have family coming in from Delaware who won't come in if it snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Yeah.....unless the GFS is epically wrong, which is a possibility, we need to rely on the model with a very extreme solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 A Swift Northwest on the models is a good bet, we got a day or so to know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 12z GFS just moved much closer to the euro camp....now has a huge bomb about 100-200 miles east of the Euro. Will be interesting to see how far west this can go. If everything, from what I am reading, can basically phase faster, we might be able to salvage something out of this yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Still, per the GFS, we need at least a 300 mile or so shift....not impossible however, especially at 100+ hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBRE Wx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Just glanced at the long range... the Winter Classic could be in real trouble on 1/1. GFS Ensembles overwhelmingly supporting a low to the lakes with 50s, southerly wind and rain for New Year's Day! Ouch... wonder if they could even play in those conditions??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Just glanced at the long range... the Winter Classic could be in real trouble on 1/1. GFS Ensembles overwhelmingly supporting a low to the lakes with 50s, southerly wind and rain for New Year's Day! Ouch... wonder if they could even play in those conditions??? I was thinking about that too. Figures we get a whole month of below freezing leading up to it. Time to change though. I am currently getting some nice Snow globe flakes in the North Hills floating outside my window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 This could end up being really sad for us...we might be missing the redux of the blizzard of 93 by about 150 miles.... Looks like we will get fringed at best....hoping for MAYBE an advisory level event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Just glanced at the long range... the Winter Classic could be in real trouble on 1/1. GFS Ensembles overwhelmingly supporting a low to the lakes with 50s, southerly wind and rain for New Year's Day! Ouch... wonder if they could even play in those conditions??? one week a blizzard is possible, the next 50s or 60s with rain and t-storms, welcome to western pa, home of weather extremes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 one week a blizzard is possible, the next 50s or 60s with rain and t-storms, welcome to western pa, home of weather extremes Blizzard is not going to happen. We need it to shift about 200-300 miles west...which is HIGHLY unlikely. Per people on the central thread, Pittsburgh has ZERO QPF from this. Depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman5416 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Blizzard is not going to happen. We need it to shift about 200-300 miles west...which is HIGHLY unlikely. Per people on the central thread, Pittsburgh has ZERO QPF from this. Depressing. That is not true. The latest 12z Euro has Allegheny county in .25-.5 per accuweather pro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'm not sure about the QPF.....which probably doesn't matter anyway at this point... But I do see about a 60 kt 850 jet extended back into eastern Ohio. That is usually a key for us with coastals. Give me a 100 miles and we are in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 That is not true. The latest 12z Euro has Allegheny county in .25-.5 per accuweather pro. Well, then I am very confused as to what I should believe...looking at that it wouldn't take much of a shift at all to put us in to a serious storm... Who the heck knows what is going on here??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman5416 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Well, then I am very confused as to what I should believe...looking at that it wouldn't take much of a shift at all to put us in to a serious storm... Who the heck knows what is going on here??? To be honest, I agree with you. To me, with a storm being this big, I think it is going to impact a lot people. And therefore the precip shield will be farther west. Also, it seems the Euro is trending slightly west. A 50-100 mile westerly shift and we are in good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 To be honest, I agree with you. To me, with a storm being this big, I think it is going to impact a lot people. My parents are riding a bus up to NYC Monday morning....in one way I am jealous, but in another way, it worries me as well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Well, then I am very confused as to what I should believe...looking at that it wouldn't take much of a shift at all to put us in to a serious storm... Who the heck knows what is going on here??? The problem is that that is the western outlier in the guidance. We are used to seeing the gfs creeping north and west when its heavy qpf is knocking on the door. In terms of an actual forecast, most are probably still thinking slightly east of the euro depiction. But again, we are still 4 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 That is not true. The latest 12z Euro has Allegheny county in .25-.5 per accuweather pro. I was just told by a met on the central thread this is yesterday's 12z map.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 To be honest, I agree with you. To me, with a storm being this big, I think it is going to impact a lot people. And therefore the precip shield will be farther west. Also, it seems the Euro is trending slightly west. A 50-100 mile westerly shift and we are in good shape. Well the latest model funs and ensembles show a trend west, looks like a real monster for the sword fisherman off Hatteras and Virgina Beach. We get the low coming 100-200 miles more west and we are back in action. But the trend today has been more positive today for us weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Well the latest model funs and ensembles show a trend west, looks like a real monster for the sword fisherman off Hatteras and Virgina Beach. We get the low coming 100-200 miles more west and we are back in action. But the trend today has been more positive today for us weenies. The problem is, I don't think it can come much further west...to be further west I would think it would have to be even stronger, and you aren't going to get much stronger than a 960 low like the models are showing... You just aren't going to get a 950 low going up the coastal plane, and really at this point, that is about what we would need... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I was just told by a met on the central thread this is yesterday's 12z map.... that appears to be last nights 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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