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Pittsburgh, PA Thread

RitualOfTheTrout

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RitualOfTheTrout

RitualOfTheTrout

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12z euro said hello blizzard of 1993, but a tad further east this time.

Agreed, but I am skeptical per Wes's caution that what allows this to really explode is a Euro Bias (holding energy back in the SW) Should this actually be a bias at work there is not going to be much to write home about. Now, I think if it slows down another 6-12 hours, phases sooner, I think we see this thing track further west and we could get a decent dump. Plus, if it slows down more, this is more of a Christmas evening into Sunday event imo. Fun to track either way. :snowman:

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Paweatherguy1

Paweatherguy1

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Agreed, but I am skeptical per Wes's caution that what allows this to really explode is a Euro Bias (holding energy back in the SW) Should this actually be a bias at work there is not going to be much to write home about. Now, I think if it slows down another 6-12 hours, phases sooner, I think we see this thing track further west and we could get a decent dump. Plus, if it slows down more, this is more of a Christmas evening into Sunday event imo. Fun to track either way. :snowman:

I think that given just how rare that a storm like is being modeled by the EURO is, that it is extremely unlikely storm to happen...as modeled, the storm would easily be a top 5 storm of all time for the entire east coast.

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RitualOfTheTrout

RitualOfTheTrout

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I think that given just how rare that a storm like is being modeled by the EURO is, that it is extremely unlikely storm to happen...as modeled, the storm would easily be a top 5 storm of all time for the entire east coast.

Yeah, that is what is concerning me. For us to get anything of merit we need to have this extreme solution verify. Not likely to happen, but on the other hand these types of storms do happen from time to time so we can hope. A further west track is our best hope at this point. Hopefully we at least get a couple inches regardless what happens.

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Digger

Digger

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Being filled, as I am, with the spirit of Christmas, I'm donating all of my snow to the poor unfortunates in Vriginia, D.C., and points south. Heaven knows they'll appreciate a White Christmas more than we, who have been so blessed more than enough. I heartily suggest that all of you join me in the spirit of giving..... :grinch:

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Paweatherguy1

Paweatherguy1

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Being filled, as I am, with the spirit of Christmas, I'm donating all of my snow to the poor unfortunates in Vriginia, D.C., and points south. Heaven knows they'll appreciate a White Christmas more than we, who have been so blessed more than enough. I heartily suggest that all of you join me in the spirit of giving..... :grinch:

Being that they got bigger storms than us a couple times last year, I think they need to donate to us! Two feet plus all the way!scooter.gif

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blackngoldrules

blackngoldrules

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Being filled, as I am, with the spirit of Christmas, I'm donating all of my snow to the poor unfortunates in Vriginia, D.C., and points south. Heaven knows they'll appreciate a White Christmas more than we, who have been so blessed more than enough. I heartily suggest that all of you join me in the spirit of giving..... :grinch:

Bah, humbug!

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lwg8tr0514

lwg8tr0514

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I think that given just how rare that a storm like is being modeled by the EURO is, that it is extremely unlikely storm to happen...as modeled, the storm would easily be a top 5 storm of all time for the entire east coast.

I think maybe the Fat Lady isn't singing yet. The Euro shows a better solution for us, not just a coating to an inch. Curious to see what the 18zs do.

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northpittweather

northpittweather

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Being that they got bigger storms than us a couple times last year, I think they need to donate to us! Two feet plus all the way!scooter.gif

The storm impresses me a lot

Storm coming up on Christmas is pretty impressive, the size of the storm and looks to it on the models, look a little bit like the 1993 super storm

post-1757-0-05528900-1292963386.gif EURO Model

post-1757-0-84276700-1292963448.gif 1993 Super Storm Satellite Image

Even how it forms seem similar a little bit, and overall a really interesting storm to watch, one model i saw today had a squall line the whole way down to Cuba like the 1993 storm, so the size of the storm could be pretty big

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Paweatherguy1

Paweatherguy1

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The storm impresses me a lot

Storm coming up on Christmas is pretty impressive, the size of the storm and looks to it on the models, look a little bit like the 1993 super storm

post-1757-0-05528900-1292963386.gif EURO Model

post-1757-0-84276700-1292963448.gif 1993 Super Storm Satellite Image

Even how it forms seem similar a little bit, and overall a really interesting storm to watch, one model i saw today had a squall line the whole way down to Cuba like the 1993 storm, so the size of the storm could be pretty big

Yes...Euro models a huge storm...no, for us, it is not 1993. THat storm was an inland runner, and we were in the heaviest precip. We need a 150 or 200 mile shift for a repeat.

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lwg8tr0514

lwg8tr0514

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The storm impresses me a lot

Storm coming up on Christmas is pretty impressive, the size of the storm and looks to it on the models, look a little bit like the 1993 super storm

post-1757-0-05528900-1292963386.gif EURO Model

post-1757-0-84276700-1292963448.gif 1993 Super Storm Satellite Image

Even how it forms seem similar a little bit, and overall a really interesting storm to watch, one model i saw today had a squall line the whole way down to Cuba like the 1993 storm, so the size of the storm could be pretty big

Tapping that gulf moisture. The St Patty's Day was a once in century deal, really think we could be even at an advisory event for this one? Even Super Weenie , Henry M on CrapuWeather was ho humming this one. Bastardi, Mr Hyperbole was amped, but then again he gets amped at anything.

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northpittweather

northpittweather

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Tapping that gulf moisture. The St Patty's Day was a once in century deal, really think we could be even at an advisory event for this one? Even Super Weenie , Henry M on CrapuWeather was ho humming this one. Bastardi, Mr Hyperbole was amped, but then again he gets amped at anything.

This storm could be a solid 6-12 or high type of storm

This is an really cool system to track

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northpittweather

northpittweather

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I'd have to say anything could happen at this point.

I agree, i think the threat of a significant snowstorm is pretty high, but how bad it will be be that is question mark as of now

I think the EURO model is the best one to go by with last weeks storm being head on several days out

My chances are 60% for 6 inches , 40% for 12 inch or more snow

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Paweatherguy1

Paweatherguy1

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I agree, i think the threat of a significant snowstorm is pretty high, but how bad it will be be that is question mark as of now

I think the EURO model is the best one to go by with last weeks storm being head on several days out

My chances are 60% for 6 inches , 40% for 12 inch or more snow

Again, no. Euro is the only one close to a big hit for us...at this point, there is still a chance of a big storm, but most likely is 1-2 inches.

I'd put the chances of six plus at less than one in ten at this point.

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JamieOber

JamieOber

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thanks, now those are beautiful images. :snowman:

amen to that brother :snowman:

Oh my. Lived on The Mahnt for that one (Mt. Washington for those not versed in Yinzerese thumbsupsmileyanim.gif)

I went for a walk at the height of it and ended up helping neighbors help a woman on Virginia Ave. in labor into a Bronco to head to Mercy. Ambulances couldn't get there on time, they were told, so this guy drove her with husband. Wild stuff.

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northpittweather

northpittweather

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Again, no. Euro is the only one close to a big hit for us...at this point, there is still a chance of a big storm, but most likely is 1-2 inches.

I'd put the chances of six plus at less than one in ten at this point.

ok then, that is possible, but that's going by the GFS, the GFS hasn't been handling the storm well(as well as the last storm to come and the EURO was right, the only one not consistent and the 18z run is just garbage, just throw it out

stick with EURO, NWS PItt is agreeing with EURO also

also they have a HWO still out which means something is possible

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Paweatherguy1

Paweatherguy1

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Oh my. Lived on The Mahnt for that one (Mt. Washington for those not versed in Yinzerese thumbsupsmileyanim.gif)

I went for a walk at the height of it and ended up helping neighbors help a woman on Virginia Ave. in labor into a Bronco to head to Mercy. Ambulances couldn't get there on time, they were told, so this guy drove her with husband. Wild stuff.

I was 8 at the time. My dad and I went for a walk to the market not too far away. We helped an older lady clear her driveway....probably around noon the first day of that storm..we were out for 2 hours and I remember 4 new inches on the walk by the time we got home. Btw, clearing that driveway was futile obviosly... There was about another 18 inches coming!

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cwc

cwc

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ok then, that is possible, but that's going by the GFS, the GFS hasn't been handling the storm well(as well as the last storm to come and the EURO was right, the only one not consistent and the 18z run is just garbage, just throw it out

stick with EURO, NWS PItt is agreeing with EURO also

also they have a HWO still out which means something is possible

LOW PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO CROSS THE REGION ONCHRISTMAS DAY MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW.HOLIDAY TRAVELERS SHOULD MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THAT SYSTEMTHIS WEEK AND BE PREPARED TO ALTER ITINERARIES.
the HWO is because it is a holiday weekend and there is the potential threat.

And I'm not sure which KPIT discussion you are reading...they are not going with the EURO.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODELS STILL VARY QUITE A BIT ON HANDLING THE POTENTIAL WINTERSTORM FOR THE WEEKEND. WILL NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES...KEEPINGTHE HIGHEST POPS SOUTH OF I-70 FRIDAY NIGHT AND CHRISTMASDAY...WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE UPLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY. WITHMOST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILLLIKELY...THUS WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUSWEATHER OUTLOOK. PRECIP CHANCES ARE PROJECTED TO GRADUALLYDIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LARGE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TOEXIT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURESWILL CONTINUE.
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cwc

cwc

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stick with EURO, NWS PItt is agreeing with EURO also

PS: While KPIT's discussion have improved greatly, read KCTP's to get a better understanding of what is happening.

For now, don't even bother watching the models until Thurs when the upper level energy comes onto the west coast and gets modeled better. Right now its all just fantasy storms....

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Burghblizz

Burghblizz

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PS: While KPIT's discussion have improved greatly, read KCTP's to get a better understanding of what is happening.

For now, don't even bother watching the models until Thurs when the upper level energy comes onto the west coast and gets modeled better. Right now its all just fantasy storms....

I read CTP too....although PIT was phenomenal in February. Some of those evening/overnight discussions on the 5th and 6th brought tears to my eyes.

Yeah, long way to go for this one. The most "reliable" model has a huge storm - but it's traditional over-phase west bias may be in play. Not good to be on the northwest edge when the model is biased that way to begin with. But we are talking 4 days out not 2.

I'd like to see some support from the NCEP models tonight....but to your point it won't be crunch time until Thursday. There will be some important runs Thursday night, and I'm not talking Mendy or Isaac Redman

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northpittweather

northpittweather

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I read CTP too....although PIT was phenomenal in February. Some of those evening/overnight discussions on the 5th and 6th brought tears to my eyes.

Yeah, long way to go for this one. The most "reliable" model has a huge storm - but it's traditional over-phase west bias may be in play. Not good to be on the northwest edge when the model is biased that way to begin with. But we are talking 4 days out not 2.

I'd like to see some support from the NCEP models tonight....but to your point it won't be crunch time until Thursday. There will be some important runs Thursday night, and I'm not talking Mendy or Isaac Redman

Thursday Is Crucial, just some things in the models are all over the place, but all show the storm, Thursday Night and even tomorrow is going to be interesting

also Steelers will crush Carolina

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