Paweatherguy1 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yeah, none of the 12z models looked good for us. Still wouldn't rule anything out at this point. Lets see what happens on tomorrows 12z runs, if between now and then this southern track holds then its probably time to let this one go. I'm just getting frustrated...I would like to think that the models at 4-5 days out should have a better handle, but they dont't...the fact that even the EURO is having 500 mile swings run to run is frustrating to say the least. Just overall, models have been pathetic so far this year. Also, I don't understand how such a robust system that has been progged across the midwest just loses all moisture as it gets here...the way it is looking is that the midwest will see a band of 4-8...al the way into OH, then New England and NYC might get clocked, and we get stuck in the middle...doesn't make any sense to me at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 I'm just getting frustrated...I would like to think that the models at 4-5 days out should have a better handle, but they dont't...the fact that even the EURO is having 500 mile swings run to run is frustrating to say the least. Just overall, models have been pathetic so far this year. Also, I don't understand how such a robust system that has been progged across the midwest just loses all moisture as it gets here...the way it is looking is that the midwest will see a band of 4-8...al the way into OH, then New England and NYC might get clocked, and we get stuck in the middle...doesn't make any sense to me at all. Yeah it does get frustrating. Many posts have been made as to why models are having a hard time with storms right now, 1 in the La-Nina and the fast pace systems are tracking across the country, 2 is the lack of an STJ for moisture, and 3 are all the little vortexes pivoting around the PV. Basically with the fast flow it is hard to predict if a piece of energy can interact with another and if something is sampled poorly, or doesn't develop as initially modeled it throws everything off. Thankfully, if you like snow on the ground anyways, we have the lakes otherwise we would have this bone chilling cold and bare ground. Doesn't look like its going to get warm enough to melt anything before Christmas (barring some WAA ahead of the next weak clipper type system) to melt what we have so should have snow on the ground for Christmas at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Recent Euro, has hit Still thinking this is going to be our storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Recent Euro, has hit Still thinking this is going to be our storm That's a hit for the New England...according to what Tombo was reading all precip basically bypasses us. Oh, and that is the 00z Euro...not the 12z that was far less robust.... Are you sure you aren't here just to try and start flaming matches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yea even henry is saying only 1-3 for us.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yea even henry is saying only 1-3 for us.... I'm fine with that...probably means we will get a foot. In all honesty, please, just give us an advisory level event...would be perfect Xmas eve into Xmas day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Recent Euro, has hit Still thinking this is going to be our storm Most of the models I just looked at have this storm too far to the south as it moves across the country and eventually too far to the east once it's off the coast moving northeastward. There's still a lot of time for things to change, but as it currently stands, we don't see much out of this one. At least nothing real noteworthy anyway. The midwest and New England seem to be in the best spots to see significant snow right now. Still time for things to change, like I said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I'm fine with that...probably means we will get a foot. In all honesty, please, just give us an advisory level event...would be perfect Xmas eve into Xmas day. I wouldn't mind that considering I have almost nothing on the ground where I'm at. Just a coating basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Why is everyone so bummed? I think everyone is getting their hopes up for the 10 inch snow. They are fewer and far between and we know that prior to last year. In my lifetime I can count on one hand how many times we had a 1 inch or better snowfall on Christmas. When we see the snow on radar in West Virginia on Christmas and we are dry then I will be bummed. Until then I will gladly take a 1-2 inch snowfall on Christmas Eve and Christmas day. Maybe I am just getting too old and it doesn't bother me as much. Keep the hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Why is everyone so bummed? I think everyone is getting their hopes up for the 10 inch snow. They are fewer and far between and we know that prior to last year. In my lifetime I can count on one hand how many times we had a 1 inch or better snowfall on Christmas. When we see the snow on radar in West Virginia on Christmas and we are dry then I will be bummed. Until then I will gladly take a 1-2 inch snowfall on Christmas Eve and Christmas day. Maybe I am just getting too old and it doesn't bother me as much. Keep the hope. I remember a few years ago on christmas it was like 55 or 60 with rain and thunderstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 I remember a few years ago on christmas it was like 55 or 60 with rain and thunderstorms Yes, a not so friendly reminder that there are a lot worse things than mid 20s and snow showers weatherwise on Christmas day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yes, a not so friendly reminder that there are a lot worse things than mid 20s and snow showers weatherwise on Christmas day! Do you remember when it was like 75 in mid January several years back i think it was like 2005 or 2004 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PittWeatherWatch Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I'm fine with that...probably means we will get a foot. amen to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Why is everyone so bummed? I think everyone is getting their hopes up for the 10 inch snow. They are fewer and far between and we know that prior to last year. In my lifetime I can count on one hand how many times we had a 1 inch or better snowfall on Christmas. When we see the snow on radar in West Virginia on Christmas and we are dry then I will be bummed. Until then I will gladly take a 1-2 inch snowfall on Christmas Eve and Christmas day. Maybe I am just getting too old and it doesn't bother me as much. Keep the hope. I won't speak for the others, but I know I'm not bummed about anything. Hell, I stopped getting bummed about storms a long time ago. Living in this area, you get used to missing out on most of them, at least getting significant amounts of snow out of them anyway. After getting so spoiled last winter (depending on your point of view), we shouldn't get too bummed anyway. I just was pointing out earlier what the models were showing and mentioned that it would at least be nice to get something out of that storm (even if it's a couple of inches), just so I can have a white christmas, since I have very little on the ground here. We just don't seem to get too many white Christmases around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoRyz Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I really don't want bickering in the Pittsburgh discussions like we did last year. If people can't be civil to each other, they can expect warnings to be given. One warning means a 5 post/day limit, and I don't think anyone wants that with a possible storm threat on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Do you remember when it was like 75 in mid January several years back i think it was like 2005 or 2004 Yes I remember that, reason being is that I was so disgusted with the pattern I did a Google search for "US Weather Pattern Change" and stumbled across the Eastern Forums. I couldn't beleive there were other people out there so dedicated to weather and winter storms lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yes I remember that, reason being is that I was so disgusted with the pattern I did a Google search for "US Weather Pattern Change" and stumbled across the Eastern Forums. I couldn't beleive there were other people out there so dedicated to weather and winter storms lol Haha I know. I would have never thought there was a community like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Haha I know. I would have never thought there was a community like this. I remember when that severe weather was going to happen on December 1st 2006, i typed Severe Weather Threat, and Eastern Weather Forums was on the 2nd page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Well, the 00z Nam at 84 hours looks a little better at 500 compared to the 18z GFS at 90 hours in terms of strength of wave in question. I would think this may nudge the system north if you extrapolate it out but then again this is the NAM at 84 hours and I'm probably one of the last people you want extrapolating anything. Ill probably wait until the morning to view the rest of the 00z suite, no sense losing sleep over this one at this stage of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Well, the 00z Nam at 84 hours looks a little better at 500 compared to the 18z GFS at 90 hours in terms of strength of wave in question. I would think this may nudge the system north if you extrapolate it out but then again this is the NAM at 84 hours and I'm probably one of the last people you want extrapolating anything. Ill probably wait until the morning to view the rest of the 00z suite, no sense losing sleep over this one at this stage of the game. GFS isn't overly impressive with the QPF for us....but placement of the surface low, closed 500, and 850 look pretty darn good. Looks like .5-ish for us to maybe a .80 QPF bullseye in northern West Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Re: 0z GFS, am concerned with 500 mb low placement -- bit too far north to me. Also, cold conveyor belt doesn't look to crank for W PA...extends as far westward to maybe Northcentral PA on this run. Still some light snow in SW PA Christmas Eve night... would be nice for the time of year! One note: the southern shortwave should not come ashore on the West Coast until about 0z Thursday. I would not be surprised to see some significant model shifts before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Re: 0z GFS, am concerned with 500 mb low placement -- bit too far north to me. Also, cold conveyor belt doesn't look to crank for W PA...extends as far westward to maybe Northcentral PA on this run. Still some light snow in SW PA Christmas Eve night... would be nice for the time of year! One note: the southern shortwave should not come ashore on the West Coast until about 0z Thursday. I would not be surprised to see some significant model shifts before then. Thanks again for the update! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Thanks again for the update! You're welcome . Also, 0z GGEM looks more amplified across the Ohio Valley / Deep South compared with its 12z run. 500 mb low placement is better than on the GFS. It appears that the 0z GGEM phases earlier than the 0z GFS does. In general, we want an earlier phase. A later phase means that you get little and the dryslot races eastward while areas to the east get raked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Re: 0z GFS, am concerned with 500 mb low placement -- bit too far north to me. Also, cold conveyor belt doesn't look to crank for W PA...extends as far westward to maybe Northcentral PA on this run. Still some light snow in SW PA Christmas Eve night... would be nice for the time of year! One note: the southern shortwave should not come ashore on the West Coast until about 0z Thursday. I would not be surprised to see some significant model shifts before then. I think we would all be pretty happy with even a fresh half inch - 1 inch for Christmas morning around here. I am wondering if the Storm will be as far South as shown right now though? It always seemed in the past when we needed a big storm to produce confluence to keep the storm far enough south for snow it always was less than initially shown and we ended up with a slop storm as it edged North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I think we would all be pretty happy with even a fresh half inch - 1 inch for Christmas morning around here. I am wondering if the Storm will be as far South as shown right now though? It always seemed in the past when we needed a big storm to produce confluence to keep the storm far enough south for snow it always was less than initially shown and we ended up with a slop storm as it edged North. I am throwing in the towel also on the Xmas day storm, almost all the models show dookie. Maybe 1-3" if that much. The pattern does look cold and stormy out 2 weeks with a few fantasy storms out there to track. The first half of January could be interesting, with Nina relaxing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Models are still south but we are still close enough to be in the ball game. I would still be happy with a 1-2 snowfall for Christmas but we can't go anymore south or we will miss out completely. Still time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 12z Runs give us decent Accumulations 4 to 5" at KPIT http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kpit 7 to 8" at agc http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kagc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 12z euro said hello blizzard of 1993, but a tad further east this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 12z euro said hello blizzard of 1993, but a tad further east this time. Well, that is where I want it at this point, haha...plenty of time for a 100-200 mile shift to the west! Even with it being that far east, I would say that we are still in line for 6-10 from what I am reading. Remember the blizzard of 96? Went to bed with a forecast of 3-6 inches...woke up to a 12-20 forecast? Storms like these always seem to trend a bit left and north of what the models are saying. All that being said, the fact that the Euro is pretty much on its own is concerning....and it did do this with the storm over the weekend as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Per Organizing Low. "0.5 inch line right around pittsubrgh, about 30-40 miles east if the 0.75 line all of NYS up north into canada is over 0.50 inches at minimum, majority over 0.75 inches. looks like just buffalo/jamestown/niagra region in the 0.5 range." Long ways out, but really, here's hoping this continues to go this way...it isn't going to take much of a shift from that to take us from 6-8 inches like is showing now with the cold and high ratios, to a foot plus.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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