Paweatherguy1 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I don't. He lives right by me and his totals are not plausible. I agree with that...stating totals from youngstown to support a total around here doesn't make sense. I think 6 is plausible, but not 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I agree with that...stating totals from youngstown to support a total around here doesn't make sense. I think 6 is plausible, but not 10. Yeah, but the NWS also reported 10" in Latrobe and 8" in Greensburg and that's even further southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Yeah, but the NWS also reported 10" in Latrobe and 8" in Greensburg and that's even further southeast. The rigdges and Laurel Highlands area always get more LES due to upsloping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Basically, I don't think we will ever know what exactly people got, just the nature of this event. In general, I think in Northern AGC, generally there was 3-5 total, but in that band, there may have been some higher areas...maybe like 5-7 or 8 inches. Northern Butler probably saw 6-10 and so on.... There are going to be wild fluctuations regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 GFS Ensembles...several that show a nice hit for our area. Not looking very likely that this is our storm, but I'm hoping we can get "fringed" like Dec 19-20th last year....ideal would be an apps/ I95 runner, but very unlikely. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSPRS_12z/ensloop.html#picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Nothing major for our area and this place dies! Looks like a boring pattern for us the next couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Nothing major for our area and this place dies! Looks like a boring pattern for us the next couple of weeks. Well, we did have two posters get banned so that could have something to do with it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Nothing major for our area and this place dies! Looks like a boring pattern for us the next couple of weeks. Yeah, not a whole lot to talk about it at the moment. Clipper looks to miss all of PA to the South, then the weekend storm is almost a miss for folks on the coast let alone us west of the apps. Of course the weekend storm could stir the NW flow back up for us again early next week so maybe another LES event to watch for? The 6z GFS showed a clipper on Tuesday next week also, would be curious to see if that is still there. Right now, I can't see the models being so wrong that we get anything decent from the weekend storm though I could see areas of I-70 getting some flurries or snow showers should the Thursday system move a bit further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Well, we did have two posters get banned so that could have something to do with it..... Who got banned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Yeah, not a whole lot to talk about it at the moment. Clipper looks to miss all of PA to the South, then the weekend storm is almost a miss for folks on the coast let alone us west of the apps. Of course the weekend storm could stir the NW flow back up for us again early next week so maybe another LES event to watch for? The 6z GFS showed a clipper on Tuesday next week also, would be curious to see if that is still there. Right now, I can't see the models being so wrong that we get anything decent from the weekend storm though I could see areas of I-70 getting some flurries or snow showers should the Thursday system move a bit further north. Everything still looks the same. The only thing is the clipper early next week is showing up stronger. Still too far out that things can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Who got banned? Rants and pennstater77....I talked to Midlo about them, and turns out they were the same person, guess he had two accounts so someone agreed with him....So now we know why Rants got banned on the last board.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Everything still looks the same. The only thing is the clipper early next week is showing up stronger. Still too far out that things can change. I think though, at this range, to see that radical of a shift...I don't really think we will see much of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Rants and pennstater77....I talked to Midlo about them, and turns out they were the same person, guess he had two accounts so someone agreed with him....So now we know why Rants got banned on the last board.... Wow good call CorapolisWX! Whats your elevation? I am 2093 feet and I have practically nothing.. Black, you should see a short break then maybe another few snow showers for about an hour before it starts to dry out and things become more scattered. Is this rants ? After skimming through old posts in our thread it is clear they were the same, pennstater77 mentioned having a new jeep, while Rants said he was driving a Jeep to Erie on Monday. Elevation of pennstater77 was also almost the same as Rants plus they both had similar sentence structure etc.. So clear now that it is pointed out. Makes you wonder if he was doing that crap if the story about his house collapsing was even true..? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Wow good call CorapolisWX! After skimming through old posts in our thread it is clear they were the same, pennstater77 mentioned having a new jeep, while Rants said he was driving a Jeep to Erie on Monday. Elevation of pennstater77 was also almost the same as Rants plus they both had similar sentence structure etc.. So clear now that it is pointed out. Makes you wonder if he was doing that crap if the story about his house collapsing was even true..? Yeah...I wondered that as well...I don't think I believe him. I mean you just go look, Rants always talked about hi "premium radar" and pennstater had the same thing...and Rants always talked about having a met background, but I really NEVER saw him go into any detail. In any case, glad he/they are gone, the thread should be much less hostile and the derailments we had should be limited. BTW, if you want a laugh, read the PSU basketball thread on the Off topic sports board...there is a point where he is talking to himself, and he is both a grad of Pitt and PSU!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Yeah...I wondered that as well...I don't think I believe him. I mean you just go look, Rants always talked about hi "premium radar" and pennstater had the same thing...and Rants always talked about having a met background, but I really NEVER saw him go into any detail. In any case, glad he/they are gone, the thread should be much less hostile and the derailments we had should be limited. BTW, if you want a laugh, read the PSU basketball thread on the Off topic sports board...there is a point where he is talking to himself, and he is both a grad of Pitt and PSU!! That's funny and kinda sad. Never did get why all the hostility when we got excited about a Winter storm, I thought it was some lind of sarcastic act like they do in the main board model theads. You have to be on here a while to get the sarcasm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Yeah...I wondered that as well...I don't think I believe him. I mean you just go look, Rants always talked about hi "premium radar" and pennstater had the same thing...and Rants always talked about having a met background, but I really NEVER saw him go into any detail. In any case, glad he/they are gone, the thread should be much less hostile and the derailments we had should be limited. BTW, if you want a laugh, read the PSU basketball thread on the Off topic sports board...there is a point where he is talking to himself, and he is both a grad of Pitt and PSU!! Thats even worse, arguing with himself! Makes you wonder what makes a guy like that tick... Oh well. Now, hopefully we get some interesting weather to track soon so we have something on topic to talk about! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Thats even worse, arguing with himself! Makes you wonder what makes a guy like that tick... Oh well. Now, hopefully we get some interesting weather to track soon so we have something on topic to talk about! Unfortunately, I think we are basically screwed with the storm next week... And after that, nothing of interest...I just want a white christmas, so give me some LES!!!! ONe good thing though is that the GFS looks like it keeps us cold through the whole period...all the way up through new years. Also, there is a clipper showing up on day 10, which of course will dissapear, but even that would be perfect Xmas eve and day...just a nice 2-4 inch storm on christmas..can't really remember the last time there was an actual snowfall christmas day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Unfortunately, I think we are basically screwed with the storm next week... And after that, nothing of interest...I just want a white christmas, so give me some LES!!!! ONe good thing though is that the GFS looks like it keeps us cold through the whole period...all the way up through new years. We may have a clipper for early next week. Not really worth getting to involved though until this weekend storm gets worked out though because its final evolution will likely have an impact on any systems that follow it in terms of how the models depict things. Things do look decent to have snow on the ground for Christmas though at this point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 We may have a clipper for early next week. Not really worth getting to involved though until this weekend storm gets worked out though because its final evolution will likely have an impact on any systems that follow it in terms of how the models depict things. Things do look decent to have snow on the ground for Christmas though at this point! The weekend storm seems to be getting pushed well off the coast now. Next weeks clipper continues to look better and better for us. A lot of time for that to change but looks good as of now anyway. I didn't get a whole lot from the last LES event so a clipper giving us a few inches would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The weekend storm seems to be getting pushed well off the coast now. Next weeks clipper continues to look better and better for us. A lot of time for that to change but looks good as of now anyway. I didn't get a whole lot from the last LES event so a clipper giving us a few inches would be nice. Yep, have barely a dusting after the wind blew most off the yard. . We were definitely a loser in the LES.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Unfortunately, I think we are basically screwed with the storm next week... And after that, nothing of interest...I just want a white christmas, so give me some LES!!!! ONe good thing though is that the GFS looks like it keeps us cold through the whole period...all the way up through new years. Also, there is a clipper showing up on day 10, which of course will dissapear, but even that would be perfect Xmas eve and day...just a nice 2-4 inch storm on christmas..can't really remember the last time there was an actual snowfall christmas day. 2003, .5 inches, 2002, 1.8. There was a trace one of the years. Rainy Christmases were more common last decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Yep, have barely a dusting after the wind blew most off the yard. . We were definitely a loser in the LES.... And now we are just above the northern fringe of the clipper that's moving through! I guess Bethel Park is like a mini screw zone when it comes to snow. Oh well, we still have a whole winter ahead of us and the clipper is still on the board for next week. Maybe we'll get lucky with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 These types of storms for us are torturous...75 miles south in Morgantown they are getting 2-4 inches and here it is cloudy and cold...meh. On a good note, 12z EURO came WAY west...there is now a .25-.50 QPF total in central PA...way closer to us than anything we have seen in the past 3 days...still not excited, but a little more trending and we could at least maybe see a couple inches, and if we are really lucky, maybe we can see an advisory storm... As I said though, not optimistic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 These types of storms for us are torturous...75 miles south in Morgantown they are getting 2-4 inches and here it is cloudy and cold...meh. On a good note, 12z EURO came WAY west...there is now a .25-.50 QPF total in central PA...way closer to us than anything we have seen in the past 3 days...still not excited, but a little more trending and we could at least maybe see a couple inches, and if we are really lucky, maybe we can see an advisory storm... As I said though, not optimistic... Yeah I saw that in the 12z thread about the Euro, I can't believe it is that far west that central PA is in the action. Euro seems to be the western outlier though correct? I do fear though that we may be just on the western fringe with cloudy and cold again. Tuesday clipper looked really ragged on the 12z GFS, but of course if it is way off on the weekend storm anything after that is probably garbage too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Yeah I saw that in the 12z thread about the Euro, I can't believe it is that far west that central PA is in the action. Euro seems to be the western outlier though correct? I do fear though that we may be just on the western fringe with cloudy and cold again. Tuesday clipper looked really ragged on the 12z GFS, but of course if it is way off on the weekend storm anything after that is probably garbage too. From what I am hearing, Clipper is much more potent on the GFS as it pops a secondary....now not exactly sure what it is doing back our way, but I heard .25 QPF in Philly, more west...not sure how far west though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 From PSUhoffman on the model thread... "Ok this is just my best educated guess from viewing the free data on ewall but at 120 hours there is a closed H5 low over Ohio with a duel low pressure area, one center over western PA, the other starting to deepen off the Carrolina coast. 144 there is a bomb off the mid atlantic coast but fairly far OTS. From the evolution I would say the "clipper" is on sterroids and has a LOT of upper level energy associated with it and that is the reason for the heavy precip ammounts over the midwest into PA. The coastal bombs but moves east and that probably produces a second round of precip along the mid atlantic. The gap around Philly east is probably because the initial precip with the primary low dies out as it heads east because of the coastal taking over so they get screwed and then the coastal slides out mostly south of them. That is my best guess but I am using incomplete data so anyone with the precip output can clear this up better." Sounds interested...we can usually do well with these "super" clippers ...also, think it is going to be cold so good ratios. QPF from a guy on the model thread looks like in the .25-.50 range...again, nothing major, but good for christmas and if true a good 3-6 inch hit. I'll take it and lock it in now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 From what I am hearing, Clipper is much more potent on the GFS as it pops a secondary....now not exactly sure what it is doing back our way, but I heard .25 QPF in Philly, more west...not sure how far west though.... You mean the ECMWF? From PSUhoffman on the model thread... "Ok this is just my best educated guess from viewing the free data on ewall but at 120 hours there is a closed H5 low over Ohio with a duel low pressure area, one center over western PA, the other starting to deepen off the Carrolina coast. 144 there is a bomb off the mid atlantic coast but fairly far OTS. From the evolution I would say the "clipper" is on sterroids and has a LOT of upper level energy associated with it and that is the reason for the heavy precip ammounts over the midwest into PA. The coastal bombs but moves east and that probably produces a second round of precip along the mid atlantic. The gap around Philly east is probably because the initial precip with the primary low dies out as it heads east because of the coastal taking over so they get screwed and then the coastal slides out mostly south of them. That is my best guess but I am using incomplete data so anyone with the precip output can clear this up better." Sounds interested...we can usually do well with these "super" clippers ...also, think it is going to be cold so good ratios. QPF from a guy on the model thread looks like in the .25-.50 range...again, nothing major, but good for christmas and if true a good 3-6 inch hit. I'll take it and lock it in now! For the Sunday storm or the mid week storm? lol Sorry, we went from pretty much nothing to look at to 2 storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 With all this westward movement, if it continues, maybe we can get fringed with coating -1 from the weekend storm. I'd be happy with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 You mean the ECMWF? For the Sunday storm or the mid week storm? lol Sorry, we went from pretty much nothing to look at to 2 storms. SOrry, yes, I meant the Euro, and I meant the second storm for .25-.50, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Tuesdays clipper seems to be back in the picture. Will be something to track. Fingers crossed for a white Christmas. It looks like a potential for a clipper type system on Tuesday and another Christmas Eve and Christmas day. With the systems moving from the the Northwest at least we will have the cold air in place. We will just need to get the precip here. Should be a fun week to watch anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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