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Pittsburgh, PA Thread


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All of this mutual understanding has made me wax poetic....

Digger's Ode to Snowfall

Oh, snowfall...

Gentle, silent, a blanket of pristine, crystalline, virginal white...

You suck.

No. Really. You &^%$# suck.

:snowman:

You've always had a way with words! :D Hey, shouldn't you be rooting for a storm now since you bought that pump for your plow?

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Hey, shouldn't you be rooting for a storm now since you bought that pump for your plow?

Oh, I dunno. Don't they still have those places where they pay you to donate blood, or plasma, or something? I could do that...

:ee:

(I kinda like those two guys with the axes.)

You've always had a way with words!

Thanks. You know, poetry isn't all that difficult, when it comes from the heart... :D

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what if a blizzard warning could be issued for strong wind/blowing snow, they did that in Illinois and Iowa for 2-4 inches of snow

The difference here is that in the watch they specifically say gusts will only reach 30 mph here as opposed to in Illinois where they are going to be getting 40-50 mph gusts. I will admit that I think 30 mph gusts is a little on the conservative side considering the strength of the storm and how close it is going to be passing to here. That being said, I highly doubt they will issue a blizzard warning. Right now, I think anywhere north of beaver, butler, armstrong, and Indiana will have winter storm warnings and counties south will have a winter weather advisory.

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I'm starting to think they go with a warning.....gfs and nam both push the freezing line through pretty fast while there is still some good precip in the area. Nam I would say put .3.-..5 of synoptic snow while gfs is in the .3 range. They are also very bullish on the les, and in northern agc they feel comfortable with a 3-5 I think over the watch period. I think they might go with a warnig pitts north for 5-9 total and an advisory south. Remember though...bitter cold, high ratios, and strong winds will all factor in. I do think some areas will see near whiteout conditions at times Monday and Monday night.

My call.

Pittsburgh south. 3-5

Northern allegheny to butler 4-8.

Butler to 80 6-12.

Ridges obviosly more 8-16

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I'm starting to think they go with a warning.....gfs and nam both push the freezing line through pretty fast while there is still some good precip in the area. Nam I would say put .3.-..5 of synoptic snow while gfs is in the .3 range. They are also very bullish on the les, and in northern agc they feel comfortable with a 3-5 I think over the watch period. I think they might go with a warnig pitts north for 5-9 total and an advisory south. Remember though...bitter cold, high ratios, and strong winds will all factor in. I do think some areas will see near whiteout conditions at times Monday and Monday night.

My call.

Pittsburgh south. 3-5

Northern allegheny to butler 4-8.

Butler to 80 6-12.

Ridges obviosly more 8-16

I agree with this mostly. Especially the problems the winds could cause. I'm assuming you didn't even include les. I have a feeling we might get an advisory though.

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The HRRR ( high res rapid refresh) which runs hourly, is showing good anticipated reflections after the 0c line passes. I really think we do well with les too. Ratios will also be good, combined with high winds it could get pretty nasty out there be careful.

Some images from hrrr

850's through area at 9 hrs

temp_850_f09.png

radar from about 8 hrs on

1ref_sfc_f08.png

1ref_sfc_f09.png

1ref_sfc_f10.png

Theres more but i don't wanna clog the thread.

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I disagree with the nws on this one...saying that 0c line progged to cross area around 21c but I see the ruc and nam moving it through well before that. I know there will be lower layer issues at first with temps, but I don't understand the near 6 hour gap they have...

My totals do include les, by the way.

Radar looks very juicy this AM, filling in from Eastern Iowa through the Philly. The freezing line creeping east from about Mansfield,Oh. ..

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WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF SNOW ONCE THE CHANGE HAPPENS, HOWEVER STILL MANY QUESTIONS ON ACCUMULATIONS. THE PROBLEMS FOR DETERMINING ACCUMULATIONS ARE TWO-FOLD. FIRST SFC TEMPS WILL BE FALLING, BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AFTER THE CHANGE TO SNOW, ADDITIONALLY A LARGE DRY-SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SFC FRONT WHICH WILL GREATLY REDUCE PRECIPITATION. BECAUSE OF THESE 2 FACTORS DO NOT THINK THAT HEADLINE CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED WITH THE SYSTEM TODAY. EXPECT TO SEE POSSIBLY AN INCH AT MOST LOCATIONS TODAY, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF MY FAR WESTERN ZONES AND THE RIDGES.

NWS pretty bearish on synoptic snow accumulations. If they are correct looks we will have to rely mainly on LES to kick in after midnight..

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WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF SNOW ONCE THE CHANGE HAPPENS, HOWEVER STILL MANY QUESTIONS ON ACCUMULATIONS. THE PROBLEMS FOR DETERMINING ACCUMULATIONS ARE TWO-FOLD. FIRST SFC TEMPS WILL BE FALLING, BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AFTER THE CHANGE TO SNOW, ADDITIONALLY A LARGE DRY-SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SFC FRONT WHICH WILL GREATLY REDUCE PRECIPITATION. BECAUSE OF THESE 2 FACTORS DO NOT THINK THAT HEADLINE CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED WITH THE SYSTEM TODAY. EXPECT TO SEE POSSIBLY AN INCH AT MOST LOCATIONS TODAY, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF MY FAR WESTERN ZONES AND THE RIDGES.

NWS pretty bearish on synoptic snow accumulations. If they are correct looks we will have to rely mainly on LES to kick in after midnight..

NWS is hitting this great so far.. They said switch over between 2 and 4 and they look to be on. Temps out in Ohio were still above freezing at most location. Zanesville was at 40 when I checked about an hour ago.

Looking at Ohio Cams, not much is sticking. Think alot of locations will see the accumulating stuff tomorrow afternoon-evening. I got up to 46 yesterday.

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