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Pittsburgh, PA Thread


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A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND

SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY CHANGING TO

SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE STORM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH

TUESDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SNOW

ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN SUBZERO WIND CHILL VALUES MONDAY

NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

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Huh. We got a quick inch here and roads are covered still.

In Greensburg just a light coating. It did stick to pretty much any surface that hadn't been treated with salt in the last 24 hours or so. Looks like from the city on North is getting the "heavier" stuff though so maybe will be a nice fresh coating when I get home this afternoon.

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The GFS has this idea also, but the low seems a bit supressed, some initial warm air advection tommorrow and then a quick changeover. The players are on the map so let's see how things plays out. The NAM and the GFS keep the low north of the MD line the whole time and the GFS does not have a secondary low. Crap it's cold behind this. 5 degrees in Bloomington Indiana, Lexington, Ky. Brr fior early december.

Hello

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Careful on this one guys...not sure how much if that is snow. If you look at the frame before the 0c line is stlll slightly west of us...

However, I'm starting to think more of a 3-5 event now.

I am concerned about a flash freeze deal with folks being out on the roads it turning into a skating rink. You have some initial rain showers, changerover and then temps in the 20's and high winds. The LES should be epic for the guys above I-80.

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Nam precip through 72. Still les going on after this. Depending on when the secondary forms we might get some mix or something in the beginning however temps plummet and winds get howling as it intensifies and the front goes trough.

Without looking at soundings and just guesstimating, about .2-.3 of that though will fall as rain / mix I am thinking. Keep in mind when looking at panels that show the 0 degree line past us that this is where the the 0 degree line is at that time, while the precipitation is totaled for the whole 6 hour period. So with this in mind, somewhere between the 48 hour panel and the 54 hour panel the 0z line passes east of most of SW PA, but not all of the precipitation that falls will be snow.

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Without looking at soundings and just guesstimating, about .2-.3 of that though will fall as rain / mix I am thinking. Keep in mind when looking at panels that show the 0 degree line past us that this is where the the 0 degree line is at that time, while the precipitation is totaled for the whole 6 hour period. So with this in mind, somewhere between the 48 hour panel and the 54 hour panel the 0z line passes east of most of SW PA, but not all of the precipitation that falls will be snow.

Well, on a good note, the NWS changed their snow forecast from 4PM to 11AM, so they are expecting a quicker change now...

I do agree though, it is tough to gauge how much we get just looking at that...though if you say .2 or.3...that probably still leaves near .4 or.5 as frozen.

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Per the GFS looks like about 1-3 inches from the main storm. Then Monday, we could probably pick up an additional 1-2 from LES as we should have a good fetch into the area coming off both Lake Huron and Erie combined with high ratios.

Yeah, LES looks pretty good for at least 2 days....I just hope that in two weeks we can get something like this for Christmas. I remember last year the weekend before it snowed like 6 inches, then rained and melted all the snow by christmas morning.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

234 PM EST FRI DEC 10 2010

MDZ001-OHZ041-050-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076-

WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-110345-

/O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.A.0010.101212T1800Z-101214T0000Z/

GARRETT-COLUMBIANA-JEFFERSON OH-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-

BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-

WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE-

FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-

MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE...

EAST LIVERPOOL...SALEM...COLUMBIANA...EAST PALESTINE...

WELLSVILLE...CALCUTTA...STEUBENVILLE...SHARON...HERMITAGE...

GROVE CITY...GREENVILLE...FARRELL...OIL CITY...FRANKLIN...

SUGARCREEK...TIONESTA...NEW CASTLE...ELLWOOD CITY...BUTLER...

ZELIENOPLE...CLARION...PUNXSUTAWNEY...BROOKVILLE...

REYNOLDSVILLE...BROCKWAY...ALIQUIPPA...BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE...

MONACA...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING...

FORD CITY...LEECHBURG...FREEPORT...APOLLO...INDIANA...

WASHINGTON...CANONSBURG...DONORA...CALIFORNIA...CHARLEROI...

MONONGAHELA...MCMURRAY...WAYNESBURG...FAIRDALE...GREENSBURG...

NEW KENSINGTON...JEANNETTE...LATROBE...MONESSEN...LIGONIER...

DONEGAL...NEW FLORENCE...ACME...CHAMPION...UNIONTOWN...

CONNELLSVILLE...POINT MARION...NORMALVILLE...FARMINGTON...

OHIOPYLE...MARKLEYSBURG...TORONTO...WEIRTON...WHEELING...

MOUNDSVILLE...NEW MARTINSVILLE...FAIRMONT...MORGANTOWN...

KINGWOOD...TERRA ALTA...PARSONS...DAVIS...THOMAS

234 PM EST FRI DEC 10 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

MONDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

MONDAY EVENING.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE

WATCH AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE

TO ALL SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. THIS WILL BRING

BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AS WELL AS QUITE COLD WIND CHILLS.

* ACCUMULATION: SNOWFALL FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MAY

BE GREATER THAN 6 INCHES.

* TIMING: SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* WINDS: WINDS WILL BECOME WEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH LATER SUNDAY AND

NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT AND

MONDAY WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* VISIBILITIES: VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED BELOW ONE MILE SUNDAY

NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HIGHER

ELEVATIONS AT TIMES.

* WIND CHILL: WIND CHILL READINGS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO SUNDAY

NIGHT AND MUCH OF MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. REPORT YOUR SNOWFALL

ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL

FREE...1-877-633-6772.

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Wow, I thought maybe a WSWwatch for Clarion, Lawrence and up north but down to my way also. Looks like the NWS thinks 1-3" maybe out the window now also.

I honestly think that this is a precautionary watch due to the large amount of uncertainty..probably a situation where it will go over to a WWA rather than a warning, unless they are maybe going to consider LES as part of the event as I think they are doing....

Still, nice to see our first watch of the year, and still, I feel like with the turnover timing issues being so great we could see anywhere from 2-8 inches between the storm and LES....just a really rough forecast.

BTW, I would imagine that it will come down at a pretty good clip immediately after the turnover, so I really don't think 2-4 is out of the question if we change over around noon by sunday evening.

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I honestly think that this is a precautionary watch due to the large amount of uncertainty..probably a situation where it will go over to a WWA rather than a warning, unless they are maybe going to consider LES as part of the event as I think they are doing....

Still, nice to see our first watch of the year, and still, I feel like with the turnover timing issues being so great we could see anywhere from 2-8 inches between the storm and LES....just a really rough forecast.

BTW, I would imagine that it will come down at a pretty good clip immediately after the turnover, so I really don't think 2-4 is out of the question if we change over around noon by sunday evening.

Yeah, they're counting the LES with the watch. They're expecting a pretty strong LES event Sunday night into Monday. I still think we see 1-3 from the storm itself. After that, someone could see several more inches of LES and some of us may only get an inch or two depending on how the bands set up. With Huron possibly getting involved Monday, I expect that will be our best chance of some decent LES accumulations.

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Yeah, they're counting the LES with the watch. They're expecting a pretty strong LES event Sunday night into Monday. I still think we see 1-3 from the storm itself. After that, someone could see several more inches of LES and some of us may only get an inch or two depending on how the bands set up. With Huron possibly getting involved Monday, I expect that will be our best chance of some decent LES accumulations.

Could be really interesting if some squalls and bands set up...30-40 MPH winds is going to make things pretty intense. With how powdery the snow will be on sunday night and monday near blizzard conditions aren't totally out of the question.

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