KPITblizz Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Wasn't really suspecting the heavy snow this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PittWeatherWatch Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY CHANGING TO SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE STORM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN SUBZERO WIND CHILL VALUES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 0z nam actually looks good for us. I don't really know whats going on but to me it looks like a secondary starts to take over, keeping us mostly frozen.. maybe some freezing rain in the start. Heres so far.. There is my prediction, low in the Delmarva and the wrap around...still sticking to my weenie 4-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Wasn't really suspecting the heavy snow this morning. I lasted about 15 minutes at my house. Put down a quick dusting. It looks like another quick batch about to come through over the next 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pittsburgh Rants Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Wasn't really suspecting the heavy snow this morning. I wasn't suspecting it either, buts its really not that heavy at all, and only sticking on grassy surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Im still not sold on the new models until they consistently stay trending this way for us into tonight.....I'll keep my fingers crossed!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I wasn't suspecting it either, buts its really not that heavy at all, and only sticking on grassy surfaces. Huh. We got a quick inch here and roads are covered still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 6z GFS looks more like the NAM in my opinion with the idea of secondary development. Looks like about .3 qpf would fall as all snow from the actual storm itself based on that. 12Z NAM rolling in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 There is my prediction, low in the Delmarva and the wrap around...still sticking to my weenie 4-6". Sounds reasonable if all goes well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 Huh. We got a quick inch here and roads are covered still. In Greensburg just a light coating. It did stick to pretty much any surface that hadn't been treated with salt in the last 24 hours or so. Looks like from the city on North is getting the "heavier" stuff though so maybe will be a nice fresh coating when I get home this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Hello Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Snowy mix in Pensacola,Fla and rain in Boston, weird! Hello Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Nam precip through 72. Still les going on after this. Depending on when the secondary forms we might get some mix or something in the beginning however temps plummet and winds get howling as it intensifies and the front goes trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 The GFS has this idea also, but the low seems a bit supressed, some initial warm air advection tommorrow and then a quick changeover. The players are on the map so let's see how things plays out. The NAM and the GFS keep the low north of the MD line the whole time and the GFS does not have a secondary low. Crap it's cold behind this. 5 degrees in Bloomington Indiana, Lexington, Ky. Brr fior early december. Hello Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Nam precip through 72. Still les going on after this. Depending on when the secondary forms we might get some mix or something in the beginning however temps plummet and winds get howling as it intensifies and the front goes trough. Should be fun no matter how much snow we get, Will be sub zero wind chills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Snowy mix in Pensacola,Fla and rain in Boston, weird! Careful on this one guys...not sure how much if that is snow. If you look at the frame before the 0c line is stlll slightly west of us... However, I'm starting to think more of a 3-5 event now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Careful on this one guys...not sure how much if that is snow. If you look at the frame before the 0c line is stlll slightly west of us... However, I'm starting to think more of a 3-5 event now. I am concerned about a flash freeze deal with folks being out on the roads it turning into a skating rink. You have some initial rain showers, changerover and then temps in the 20's and high winds. The LES should be epic for the guys above I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 Nam precip through 72. Still les going on after this. Depending on when the secondary forms we might get some mix or something in the beginning however temps plummet and winds get howling as it intensifies and the front goes trough. Without looking at soundings and just guesstimating, about .2-.3 of that though will fall as rain / mix I am thinking. Keep in mind when looking at panels that show the 0 degree line past us that this is where the the 0 degree line is at that time, while the precipitation is totaled for the whole 6 hour period. So with this in mind, somewhere between the 48 hour panel and the 54 hour panel the 0z line passes east of most of SW PA, but not all of the precipitation that falls will be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Without looking at soundings and just guesstimating, about .2-.3 of that though will fall as rain / mix I am thinking. Keep in mind when looking at panels that show the 0 degree line past us that this is where the the 0 degree line is at that time, while the precipitation is totaled for the whole 6 hour period. So with this in mind, somewhere between the 48 hour panel and the 54 hour panel the 0z line passes east of most of SW PA, but not all of the precipitation that falls will be snow. Well, on a good note, the NWS changed their snow forecast from 4PM to 11AM, so they are expecting a quicker change now... I do agree though, it is tough to gauge how much we get just looking at that...though if you say .2 or.3...that probably still leaves near .4 or.5 as frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 Per the GFS looks like about 1-3 inches from the main storm. Then Monday, we could probably pick up an additional 1-2 from LES as we should have a good fetch into the area coming off both Lake Huron and Erie combined with high ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Per the GFS looks like about 1-3 inches from the main storm. Then Monday, we could probably pick up an additional 1-2 from LES as we should have a good fetch into the area coming off both Lake Huron and Erie combined with high ratios. Yeah, LES looks pretty good for at least 2 days....I just hope that in two weeks we can get something like this for Christmas. I remember last year the weekend before it snowed like 6 inches, then rained and melted all the snow by christmas morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PittWeatherWatch Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 234 PM EST FRI DEC 10 2010 MDZ001-OHZ041-050-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076- WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-110345- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.A.0010.101212T1800Z-101214T0000Z/ GARRETT-COLUMBIANA-JEFFERSON OH-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE- BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA- WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE- FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION- MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE... EAST LIVERPOOL...SALEM...COLUMBIANA...EAST PALESTINE... WELLSVILLE...CALCUTTA...STEUBENVILLE...SHARON...HERMITAGE... GROVE CITY...GREENVILLE...FARRELL...OIL CITY...FRANKLIN... SUGARCREEK...TIONESTA...NEW CASTLE...ELLWOOD CITY...BUTLER... ZELIENOPLE...CLARION...PUNXSUTAWNEY...BROOKVILLE... REYNOLDSVILLE...BROCKWAY...ALIQUIPPA...BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE... MONACA...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING... FORD CITY...LEECHBURG...FREEPORT...APOLLO...INDIANA... WASHINGTON...CANONSBURG...DONORA...CALIFORNIA...CHARLEROI... MONONGAHELA...MCMURRAY...WAYNESBURG...FAIRDALE...GREENSBURG... NEW KENSINGTON...JEANNETTE...LATROBE...MONESSEN...LIGONIER... DONEGAL...NEW FLORENCE...ACME...CHAMPION...UNIONTOWN... CONNELLSVILLE...POINT MARION...NORMALVILLE...FARMINGTON... OHIOPYLE...MARKLEYSBURG...TORONTO...WEIRTON...WHEELING... MOUNDSVILLE...NEW MARTINSVILLE...FAIRMONT...MORGANTOWN... KINGWOOD...TERRA ALTA...PARSONS...DAVIS...THOMAS 234 PM EST FRI DEC 10 2010 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE WATCH AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. THIS WILL BRING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AS WELL AS QUITE COLD WIND CHILLS. * ACCUMULATION: SNOWFALL FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MAY BE GREATER THAN 6 INCHES. * TIMING: SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. * WINDS: WINDS WILL BECOME WEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH LATER SUNDAY AND NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. * VISIBILITIES: VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED BELOW ONE MILE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT TIMES. * WIND CHILL: WIND CHILL READINGS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF MONDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. REPORT YOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Wow, I thought maybe a WSWwatch for Clarion, Lawrence and up north but down to my way also. Looks like the NWS thinks 1-3" maybe out the window now also. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 234 PM EST FRI DEC 10 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Wow, I thought maybe a WSWwatch for Clarion, Lawrence and up north but down to my way also. Looks like the NWS thinks 1-3" maybe out the window now also. I honestly think that this is a precautionary watch due to the large amount of uncertainty..probably a situation where it will go over to a WWA rather than a warning, unless they are maybe going to consider LES as part of the event as I think they are doing.... Still, nice to see our first watch of the year, and still, I feel like with the turnover timing issues being so great we could see anywhere from 2-8 inches between the storm and LES....just a really rough forecast. BTW, I would imagine that it will come down at a pretty good clip immediately after the turnover, so I really don't think 2-4 is out of the question if we change over around noon by sunday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I honestly think that this is a precautionary watch due to the large amount of uncertainty..probably a situation where it will go over to a WWA rather than a warning, unless they are maybe going to consider LES as part of the event as I think they are doing.... Still, nice to see our first watch of the year, and still, I feel like with the turnover timing issues being so great we could see anywhere from 2-8 inches between the storm and LES....just a really rough forecast. BTW, I would imagine that it will come down at a pretty good clip immediately after the turnover, so I really don't think 2-4 is out of the question if we change over around noon by sunday evening. Yeah, they're counting the LES with the watch. They're expecting a pretty strong LES event Sunday night into Monday. I still think we see 1-3 from the storm itself. After that, someone could see several more inches of LES and some of us may only get an inch or two depending on how the bands set up. With Huron possibly getting involved Monday, I expect that will be our best chance of some decent LES accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Yeah, they're counting the LES with the watch. They're expecting a pretty strong LES event Sunday night into Monday. I still think we see 1-3 from the storm itself. After that, someone could see several more inches of LES and some of us may only get an inch or two depending on how the bands set up. With Huron possibly getting involved Monday, I expect that will be our best chance of some decent LES accumulations. Could be really interesting if some squalls and bands set up...30-40 MPH winds is going to make things pretty intense. With how powdery the snow will be on sunday night and monday near blizzard conditions aren't totally out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Look at the NAM next week...cold, cold the 0 line all the way down to Key Largo, Fl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I thnk we all take this... http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=PBZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I thnk we all take this... http://wxcaster.com/...3?STATIONID=PBZ Absolutely !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Absolutely !!! Do remember, that is over 120 hours, but I think most of the precip in that time frame would be this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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