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Pittsburgh, PA Thread


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18z GFS has close to half an inch of QPF that would be all snow....

Who the hell knows what will happen.

My first call. 2-4...start as rain, change over to a wind driven snow

Haha I just saw that. I mean literally every time you think you might have some sort of solution the next run of models does something crazy. I mean honestly if the gfs were to come true, we would have a nice snow with like you said around .5 qpf, with fridgid temps and howling winds behind it. Followed by nice les. Who knows anymore..

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18z GFS has close to half an inch of QPF that would be all snow....

Who the hell knows what will happen.

My first call. 2-4...start as rain, change over to a wind driven snow

Oh it gets better, how a flash freeze where we go from 38 to 25 in a matter of an hour, so you have a coat of ice with possible 3-5" of snow on top. Yippeeee!

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KDKA said 1-3"

It should also be noted, 38 tomorrow and they had 42 Saturday and 36 Sunday..

That's around what I've been thinking too. It'll likely start as rain Saturday night, have mixed precip Sunday morning and early afternoon, then changeover to all snow later in the afternoon with a couple of inches possible before the system moves away. Then we'll see a day or two of off and on LES with additional light accumulations.

The Steeler game should be rather interesting to watch Sunday in these elements. Lucky for them, they just resodded that mess of a field!

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That's around what I've been thinking too. It'll likely start as rain Saturday night, have mixed precip Sunday morning and early afternoon, then changeover to all snow later in the afternoon with a couple of inches possible before the system moves away. Then we'll see a day or two of off and on LES with additional light accumulations.

The Steeler game should be rather interesting to watch Sunday in these elements. Lucky for them, they just resodded that mess of a field!

I'm guessing it will rain for the game and turn to snow after.

Wouldn't it be neat if the front came through during the game and it went from rain to strong winds, snow and a flash freeze in the second half. (I wouldn't want to be sitting out in it though. My TV and warm house will be fine thank you):popcorn:

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Also over on the Central PA thread.. decided to throw my first call over here for you guys on the pgh thread too.

....

Here is the scenario map.. due to the complexity of the storm I have decided to label the different sections. This is preliminary, and will likely look different a time or two before the storm arrives.

post-1507-0-23483500-1291945784.png

A. In this region I anticipate this event to be primarily a snow event throughout the duration. Initial WAA precip that comes up may potentially briefly mix with some freezing rain or sleet for a time in places (primarily south), but generally this region should stay mainly snow until the probable transfer of the low to the coast starts drawing in the cold air and thus maintaining all snow. Depending on how the coastal low evolves, this region may also be subject to a decent period of deform snowfall. Too early for exact totals for sure but in this scenario I would expect at least a low end warning criteria snowfall in this region (i.e 6-8 inch variety).

B. This region either will start as a wintry mix and go over to snow or start as snow and go over to a period of mixing before going back over to snow as the coastal low winds up. Judging off of SREF, predominant mixing precip probably will be freezing rain, though some areas might see sleet as well. As in region A, coastal low evolution may lock in deform snowfall for a time. Possible snowfall totals in the winter weather advisory range (3-5 inch variety)

C1. This area may start as a wintry mix and/or rain for a time, and then eventually transition over to snow as the coastal low develops. Possible deform positioning will affect snow totals. Currently I expect 1-3 inch type snowfall.

C2. This area could start as a brief wintry mix before going over to rain for a while, and then eventually over to snow as coastal establishes. Possible totals also of the 1-3 inch variety.

D1. Starting as rain and staying rain for a good portion of the storm. Changeover to snow eventually occurs as coastal winds up. Snow totals of the T-2 inch variety

D2. Starting as rain and staying rain for most of the storm duration. Depending on coastal low development/positioning these areas could experience a brief period of snow or snow showers toward the end of the storm. Any snow generally under an inch.

As stated, this is preliminary.. my map pretty much depends on the development of a secondary low pressure on the coastline, which is the scenario I have expected the last several days. If this ends up as only a primary to the lakes and little or no reflection to the coast.. the wintry part of my map is going to bust of course. Additionally the position of the deform snowfall if a secondary low becomes established will affect the area of highest snow totals.. and hinges on the positioning of said secondary low.

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Also over on the Central PA thread.. decided to throw my first call over here for you guys on the pgh thread too.

....

Here is the scenario map.. due to the complexity of the storm I have decided to label the different sections. This is preliminary, and will likely look different a time or two before the storm arrives.

post-1507-0-23483500-1291945784.png

A. In this region I anticipate this event to be primarily a snow event throughout the duration. Initial WAA precip that comes up may potentially briefly mix with some freezing rain or sleet for a time in places (primarily south), but generally this region should stay mainly snow until the probable transfer of the low to the coast starts drawing in the cold air and thus maintaining all snow. Depending on how the coastal low evolves, this region may also be subject to a decent period of deform snowfall. Too early for exact totals for sure but in this scenario I would expect at least a low end warning criteria snowfall in this region (i.e 6-8 inch variety).

B. This region either will start as a wintry mix and go over to snow or start as snow and go over to a period of mixing before going back over to snow as the coastal low winds up. Judging off of SREF, predominant mixing precip probably will be freezing rain, though some areas might see sleet as well. As in region A, coastal low evolution may lock in deform snowfall for a time. Possible snowfall totals in the winter weather advisory range (3-5 inch variety)

C1. This area may start as a wintry mix and/or rain for a time, and then eventually transition over to snow as the coastal low develops. Possible deform positioning will affect snow totals. Currently I expect 1-3 inch type snowfall.

C2. This area could start as a brief wintry mix before going over to rain for a while, and then eventually over to snow as coastal establishes. Possible totals also of the 1-3 inch variety.

D1. Starting as rain and staying rain for a good portion of the storm. Changeover to snow eventually occurs as coastal winds up. Snow totals of the T-2 inch variety

D2. Starting as rain and staying rain for most of the storm duration. Depending on coastal low development/positioning these areas could experience a brief period of snow or snow showers toward the end of the storm. Any snow generally under an inch.

As stated, this is preliminary.. my map pretty much depends on the development of a secondary low pressure on the coastline, which is the scenario I have expected the last several days. If this ends up as only a primary to the lakes and little or no reflection to the coast.. the wintry part of my map is going to bust of course. Additionally the position of the deform snowfall if a secondary low becomes established will affect the area of highest snow totals.. and hinges on the positioning of said secondary low.

Who Knows????

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I am thinking mostly snow with some mix early on with rain/sleet/freezing rain

This will make the steeler game interesting

I am expecting a winter storm watch and over 6 inches of snow

I am sorry, I am still not sold on that much snow with this.. There is still way too much time, we need to wait til tomorrow night and see. I still think warm air sticks longer like it does in this area.

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Wow, NAM really does look good! Im not staying up for any of the other models as I don't think things will really get ironed out until tomorrows 12z runs. Looking to wake up to good news.

Oh hai guyz. As I was just telling the Central PA dudz, I'm the 12/10 0Z NAM. Just when you all think you know what is going to happen with this storm, I come along. HEE!

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0z GFS keeps the Midwest low the primary for much of the time. It shows a narrow window on Sunday morning (about 12z-17z or so) where temps might cool enough while dynamics are still good for snow. Then signs of a dryslot around 18z, followed by lake-enhanced snow showers late Sunday afternoon through early next week. Would expect snow during that narrow window to only amount to 1-2". Few more inches possible with the lake-enhanced snow showers.

0z NAM presents a different solution...puts much more weight on the coastal storm developing in NC/VA and taking over during the day on Sunday. This delays the dryslot and ups the frozen precip. It's the 'ole energy transfer solution. Have seen so many of them, and they seldom work out for PIT. Will have to watch more runs to see how the solution evolves.

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0z GFS keeps the Midwest low the primary for much of the time. It shows a narrow window on Sunday morning (about 12z-17z or so) where temps might cool enough while dynamics are still good for snow. Then signs of a dryslot around 18z, followed by lake-enhanced snow showers late Sunday afternoon through early next week. Would expect snow during that narrow window to only amount to 1-2". Few more inches possible with the lake-enhanced snow showers.

0z NAM presents a different solution...puts much more weight on the coastal storm developing in NC/VA and taking over during the day on Sunday. This delays the dryslot and ups the frozen precip. It's the 'ole energy transfer solution. Have seen so many of them, and they seldom work out for PIT. Will have to watch more runs to see how the solution evolves.

Thanks for the update!

You were always one of the most knowledgable about the Western Pa. weather.

What are you doing in Albany may I ask?

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Thanks for the update!

You were always one of the most knowledgable about the Western Pa. weather.

What are you doing in Albany may I ask?

You're welcome. :) Thanks for the kind words. I go to SUNY Albany now for grad school - still in atmospheric science/meteorology. Graduated from Penn State in May with the degree in Meteo. Lived in PA the previous 22 years, with a close watch on winter wx there since 02-03.

Looking forward to visiting this thread from time to time this winter. :snowman:

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