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Pittsburgh, PA Thread

RitualOfTheTrout

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ChalkHillSnowNut

ChalkHillSnowNut

Posted
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Yea thanks again BlacknGold for the info about the new board! Much appreciated man! :drunk:

Hey, welcome aboard neighbor! Yeah, Kudzma used to actually make me laugh when comparing his forecasts to the other local mets. If the other 2 stations were saying 1-3, you can bet Bob was saying 3-6! Not always, but a lot of the time. Doesn't he live in Bethel Park?

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blackngoldrules

blackngoldrules

Posted
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It really is amazing to me how often Pittsburgh has been the dividing line over the years between rain and snow or a mix and snow. Pittsburgh just seems to be a magnet for that with these storms. It wouldn't surprise me at all if that happens again with this one. The city and south (which includes me of course) would see a mixed bag and north of the city would see mostly snow. The current NWS forecasts seem to suggest this. Things can certainly change though with this much time left before it gets here and I'm hoping it does change for my area. I'd hate to be in the slop zone yet again.

Sent from my T-Mobile G1 using Tapatalk

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RitualOfTheTrout

RitualOfTheTrout

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I hope those calling for all snow are right, but I just don't see how you can be so confident at this range given such a wide swing of models. The Euro and NAM being far west should be a big red flag! I fully expect the GFS to jump on to a further west. Probably not as far west as the Euro but far enough that we will at least experience a mix. The block is still developing so there is nothing to force the storm east other than how it develops (ie phasing / rate of deepening) If it stays week then a farther east track will verify, if not look for a mix at best and a mostly rain event at this point would not surprise me either.

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Pittsburgh Rants

Pittsburgh Rants

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Posted

I hope those calling for all snow are right, but I just don't see how you can be so confident at this range given such a wide swing of models. The Euro and NAM being far west should be a big red flag! I fully expect the GFS to jump on to a further west. Probably not as far west as the Euro but far enough that we will at least experience a mix. The block is still developing so there is nothing to force the storm east other than how it develops (ie phasing / rate of deepening) If it stays week then a farther east track will verify, if not look for a mix at best and a mostly rain event at this point would not surprise me either.

Yeah, I am starting to expect less now, maybe just LES Monday..The Block everyone ignores. Its funny.

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Burghblizz

Burghblizz

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Amazing.

The GFS has gone from the low up the coast this morning to over lake Erie in 12 hours.

What is that? About a 400 mile shift west?

This run looks more like a clipper than anything else...

it's more of a shift north as it still rounds the base of trough east of here. So we don't get too flooded with warm air. It looks like we go above freezing for a while Sunday morning - but the main issue is that QPF really isn't significant as modeled (maybe .3 or .4). I'll give it till tomorrow night.

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Pittsburgh Rants

Pittsburgh Rants

Posted
Posted

06z GFS Run looks better than before for us, also SREF has some good snows for us

Low is still way to far west to get anything real significant. NWS Lastest discussion mentions minor accumulations for I-80 and ridges. NAM shows LES shuts off pretty quickly, unlike this last event where we had snows still this morning.

MIXED PRECIP

SATURDAY NIGHT...AND RAIN OR A MIX FOR MOST OF SUNDAY WILL KEEP SNOW

TOTALS TO A MINIMUM THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS MINOR

ACCUMULATIONS FOR EASTERN OHIO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE CHANGING TO

MIX/RAIN...AND THE I-80 CORRIDOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY IN

DEEPER COLD AIR.-- End Changed Discussion --

Someone is going to luck out with this system, but I think right now we aren't, its going to be a more rain/some mix more then snow event.

Should be noted high Temps for Sunday continue to go up a degree or two in the forecast. I was 34 last night, now NWS has me at 36 for Sunday and I am at 1800 feet.

As stated before in these events seems like warm air always sticks around longer then forecasted. To point at a time and say like 3PM it will switch over is hard to do. I hate these mix events, they hardly ever work out.

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PittWeatherWatch

PittWeatherWatch

Posted
Posted

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

254 AM EST THU DEC 9 2010

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ013-014-020>022-029-031-073-

075-WVZ001>004-012-021-022-101100-

TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-

MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-BEAVER-

ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-HANCOCK-

BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-

254 AM EST THU DEC 9 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST

PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA

AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND

SUNDAY WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMULATION.

BEHIND THE STORM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW

SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. IN

ADDITION...BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT

IN SUBZERO WIND CHILL VALUES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

....

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE

REGION WITH TIMING...STRENGTH AND TRACK REMAINING IN QUESTION. WILL

CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD HPC PROGS...SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR MIXED

PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS...BECOMING MAINLY LIQUID EARLY

SUNDAY...THEN CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY LATE SUNDAY AFTN BEHIND THE

SURFACE FRONT. WILL WORD A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT

INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING PER THERMAL PROFILES SHOWING WARMER AIR

RIDING OVER POTENTIALLY A STILL CHILLED SURFACE. MIXED PRECIP

SATURDAY NIGHT...AND RAIN OR A MIX FOR MOST OF SUNDAY WILL KEEP SNOW

TOTALS TO A MINIMUM THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS MINOR

ACCUMULATIONS FOR EASTERN OHIO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE CHANGING TO

MIX/RAIN...AND THE I-80 CORRIDOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY IN

DEEPER COLD AIR.

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RitualOfTheTrout

RitualOfTheTrout

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This run looks more like a clipper than anything else...

it's more of a shift north as it still rounds the base of trough east of here. So we don't get too flooded with warm air. It looks like we go above freezing for a while Sunday morning - but the main issue is that QPF really isn't significant as modeled (maybe .3 or .4). I'll give it till tomorrow night.

The system always was a more Northern branch system with the lack of any STJ influence so the more clipper look makes sense in that regard. With these types of storms from experience and to sorta echo what Rants said, the warm air seems to hang on longer, infiltrate the upper levels faster than foretasted, and sometimes exceed foretasted highs more often than not. The fact that the system looks disorganized and weak is actually a good thing otherwise we would end up with a solution like yesterdays 12z Euro verifying. I expect that tomorrows 12z runs if not tonight's 00z runs to really start to come to some sort of agreement as all the S/Ws involved in this should be in good data sampling areas. (Of course that won't stop me from pouring over todays 12z runs.)

if I had to give snow totals now based on current models for the entire event (LES included) I'd say 2-4 inches by Tuesday night looks reasonable.

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JamieOber

JamieOber

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Posted

The system always was a more Northern branch system with the lack of any STJ influence so the more clipper look makes sense in that regard. With these types of storms from experience and to sorta echo what Rants said, the warm air seems to hang on longer, infiltrate the upper levels faster than foretasted, and sometimes exceed foretasted highs more often than not. The fact that the system looks disorganized and weak is actually a good thing otherwise we would end up with a solution like yesterdays 12z Euro verifying. I expect that tomorrows 12z runs if not tonight's 00z runs to really start to come to some sort of agreement as all the S/Ws involved in this should be in good data sampling areas. (Of course that won't stop me from pouring over todays 12z runs.)

if I had to give snow totals now based on current models for the entire event (LES included) I'd say 2-4 inches by Tuesday night looks reasonable.

The Euro is a 180 from 12Z. Too much.

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lwg8tr0514

lwg8tr0514

Posted
Posted

Ya I'm thinking a mix to rain event with zero accumulation and a few flurries sunday night/monday....:thumbsdown:

I am going to wait till the players are on the map at this point to make a definitive prediction. The models this AM can't reach a consensus, the Euro is still stuck on stupid with the low tracking up through Louisville and then into Ill., that track would make Rants happy and we would be on the very Eastern edge with all the warm air advection and little moisture. The UKIE, GFS, JMA have the storm just east, up or west of the Appalachians with a little blossoming after it hits the Delmarva. My personal opinion reading the opinions of mets on two boards and looking at the models themselves is more the latter group of models with maybe the surface low tracking just west the Appalachians up into Buffalo and then sitting there for a day or two. My wild and unscientific guess, I am going weenie :snowman: 4-6" through Tuesday PM after mix-ish day Sunday.

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Pittsburgh Rants

Pittsburgh Rants

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Posted

I am going to wait till the players are on the map at this point to make a definitive prediction. The models this AM can't reach a consensus, the Euro is still stuck on stupid with the low tracking up through Louisville and then into Ill., that track would make Rants happy and we would be on the very Eastern edge with all the warm air advection and little moisture. The UKIE, GFS, JMA have the storm just east, up or west of the Appalachians with a little blossoming after it hits the Delmarva. My personal opinion reading the opinions of mets on two boards and looking at the models themselves is more the latter group of models with maybe the surface low tracking just west the Appalachians up into Buffalo and then sitting there for a day or two. My wild and unscientific guess, I am going weenie :snowman: 4-6" through Tuesday PM after mix-ish day Sunday.

4-6" for Buffalo is a good call.. Good Job Guy!

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