blackngoldrules Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I see a mix, see that tiny little Z on December 11th, STORM CANCEL! You just ruined my whole weekend with that information! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Yea thanks again BlacknGold for the info about the new board! Much appreciated man! Hey, welcome aboard neighbor! Yeah, Kudzma used to actually make me laugh when comparing his forecasts to the other local mets. If the other 2 stations were saying 1-3, you can bet Bob was saying 3-6! Not always, but a lot of the time. Doesn't he live in Bethel Park? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The 0Z run will tell us a lot.... ...that is the Thursday night 0Z! Normally when the normally early phased Euro meets the suppressed GFS, the truth lies somewhere in the middle (usually more towards the Euro). The 18Z GFS essentially said F.U. and went weaker and more suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 It really is amazing to me how often Pittsburgh has been the dividing line over the years between rain and snow or a mix and snow. Pittsburgh just seems to be a magnet for that with these storms. It wouldn't surprise me at all if that happens again with this one. The city and south (which includes me of course) would see a mixed bag and north of the city would see mostly snow. The current NWS forecasts seem to suggest this. Things can certainly change though with this much time left before it gets here and I'm hoping it does change for my area. I'd hate to be in the slop zone yet again. Sent from my T-Mobile G1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 looks like the steelers game could see good snow if JB is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 BLIZZARD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 looks like the steelers game could see good snow if JB is right SNOW BOWL!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pittsburgh Rants Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 BLIZZARD Central PA would get dumped on.. Too bad thats not going to play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 SNOW BOWL!!!!! If he is right its gonna be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 If he is right its gonna be interesting whats Joe B. saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pittsburgh Rants Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 whats Joe B. saying? For our sake and his background, I hope he is saying Pittsburgh should see rain and then sun.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Just checked out the 0z NAM and it has the low waaay west of here at hour 84. It'll be interesting to see where the 0z GFS goes with it. Sent from my T-Mobile G1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pittsburgh Rants Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Just checked out the 0z NAM and it has the low waaay west of here at hour 84. It'll be interesting to see where the 0z GFS goes with it. Sent from my T-Mobile G1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 I hope those calling for all snow are right, but I just don't see how you can be so confident at this range given such a wide swing of models. The Euro and NAM being far west should be a big red flag! I fully expect the GFS to jump on to a further west. Probably not as far west as the Euro but far enough that we will at least experience a mix. The block is still developing so there is nothing to force the storm east other than how it develops (ie phasing / rate of deepening) If it stays week then a farther east track will verify, if not look for a mix at best and a mostly rain event at this point would not surprise me either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pittsburgh Rants Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I hope those calling for all snow are right, but I just don't see how you can be so confident at this range given such a wide swing of models. The Euro and NAM being far west should be a big red flag! I fully expect the GFS to jump on to a further west. Probably not as far west as the Euro but far enough that we will at least experience a mix. The block is still developing so there is nothing to force the storm east other than how it develops (ie phasing / rate of deepening) If it stays week then a farther east track will verify, if not look for a mix at best and a mostly rain event at this point would not surprise me either. Yeah, I am starting to expect less now, maybe just LES Monday..The Block everyone ignores. Its funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 yep im on the 80% rain / mix -- 20% snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Amazing. The GFS has gone from the low up the coast this morning to over lake Erie in 12 hours. What is that? About a 400 mile shift west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digger Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 It's my fault. My plow wasn't working, so I had to spend $600 today to buy a new pump for it. Won't be able to pay for it until we get a plowable event. Storm cancel. Winter cancel... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Amazing. The GFS has gone from the low up the coast this morning to over lake Erie in 12 hours. What is that? About a 400 mile shift west? This run looks more like a clipper than anything else... it's more of a shift north as it still rounds the base of trough east of here. So we don't get too flooded with warm air. It looks like we go above freezing for a while Sunday morning - but the main issue is that QPF really isn't significant as modeled (maybe .3 or .4). I'll give it till tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psnnstater77 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I am not all that excited about this event right now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 06z GFS Run looks better than before for us, also SREF has some good snows for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pittsburgh Rants Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 06z GFS Run looks better than before for us, also SREF has some good snows for us Low is still way to far west to get anything real significant. NWS Lastest discussion mentions minor accumulations for I-80 and ridges. NAM shows LES shuts off pretty quickly, unlike this last event where we had snows still this morning. MIXED PRECIPSATURDAY NIGHT...AND RAIN OR A MIX FOR MOST OF SUNDAY WILL KEEP SNOW TOTALS TO A MINIMUM THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS MINOR ACCUMULATIONS FOR EASTERN OHIO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE CHANGING TO MIX/RAIN...AND THE I-80 CORRIDOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY IN DEEPER COLD AIR.-- End Changed Discussion -- Someone is going to luck out with this system, but I think right now we aren't, its going to be a more rain/some mix more then snow event. Should be noted high Temps for Sunday continue to go up a degree or two in the forecast. I was 34 last night, now NWS has me at 36 for Sunday and I am at 1800 feet. As stated before in these events seems like warm air always sticks around longer then forecasted. To point at a time and say like 3PM it will switch over is hard to do. I hate these mix events, they hardly ever work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PittWeatherWatch Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 254 AM EST THU DEC 9 2010 OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ013-014-020>022-029-031-073- 075-WVZ001>004-012-021-022-101100- TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH- MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-BEAVER- ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-HANCOCK- BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA- 254 AM EST THU DEC 9 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMULATION. BEHIND THE STORM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN SUBZERO WIND CHILL VALUES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. .... FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION WITH TIMING...STRENGTH AND TRACK REMAINING IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD HPC PROGS...SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS...BECOMING MAINLY LIQUID EARLY SUNDAY...THEN CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY LATE SUNDAY AFTN BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. WILL WORD A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING PER THERMAL PROFILES SHOWING WARMER AIR RIDING OVER POTENTIALLY A STILL CHILLED SURFACE. MIXED PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT...AND RAIN OR A MIX FOR MOST OF SUNDAY WILL KEEP SNOW TOTALS TO A MINIMUM THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS MINOR ACCUMULATIONS FOR EASTERN OHIO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE CHANGING TO MIX/RAIN...AND THE I-80 CORRIDOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY IN DEEPER COLD AIR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 This run looks more like a clipper than anything else... it's more of a shift north as it still rounds the base of trough east of here. So we don't get too flooded with warm air. It looks like we go above freezing for a while Sunday morning - but the main issue is that QPF really isn't significant as modeled (maybe .3 or .4). I'll give it till tomorrow night. The system always was a more Northern branch system with the lack of any STJ influence so the more clipper look makes sense in that regard. With these types of storms from experience and to sorta echo what Rants said, the warm air seems to hang on longer, infiltrate the upper levels faster than foretasted, and sometimes exceed foretasted highs more often than not. The fact that the system looks disorganized and weak is actually a good thing otherwise we would end up with a solution like yesterdays 12z Euro verifying. I expect that tomorrows 12z runs if not tonight's 00z runs to really start to come to some sort of agreement as all the S/Ws involved in this should be in good data sampling areas. (Of course that won't stop me from pouring over todays 12z runs.) if I had to give snow totals now based on current models for the entire event (LES included) I'd say 2-4 inches by Tuesday night looks reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The system always was a more Northern branch system with the lack of any STJ influence so the more clipper look makes sense in that regard. With these types of storms from experience and to sorta echo what Rants said, the warm air seems to hang on longer, infiltrate the upper levels faster than foretasted, and sometimes exceed foretasted highs more often than not. The fact that the system looks disorganized and weak is actually a good thing otherwise we would end up with a solution like yesterdays 12z Euro verifying. I expect that tomorrows 12z runs if not tonight's 00z runs to really start to come to some sort of agreement as all the S/Ws involved in this should be in good data sampling areas. (Of course that won't stop me from pouring over todays 12z runs.) if I had to give snow totals now based on current models for the entire event (LES included) I'd say 2-4 inches by Tuesday night looks reasonable. The Euro is a 180 from 12Z. Too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pittsburgh Rants Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The Euro is a 180 from 12Z. Too much. Yeah, I am thinking a dusting-2" with of course higher amounts East and North of Pittsburgh, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Ya I'm thinking a mix to rain event with zero accumulation and a few flurries sunday night/monday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Ya I'm thinking a mix to rain event with zero accumulation and a few flurries sunday night/monday.... I am going to wait till the players are on the map at this point to make a definitive prediction. The models this AM can't reach a consensus, the Euro is still stuck on stupid with the low tracking up through Louisville and then into Ill., that track would make Rants happy and we would be on the very Eastern edge with all the warm air advection and little moisture. The UKIE, GFS, JMA have the storm just east, up or west of the Appalachians with a little blossoming after it hits the Delmarva. My personal opinion reading the opinions of mets on two boards and looking at the models themselves is more the latter group of models with maybe the surface low tracking just west the Appalachians up into Buffalo and then sitting there for a day or two. My wild and unscientific guess, I am going weenie 4-6" through Tuesday PM after mix-ish day Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pittsburgh Rants Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I am going to wait till the players are on the map at this point to make a definitive prediction. The models this AM can't reach a consensus, the Euro is still stuck on stupid with the low tracking up through Louisville and then into Ill., that track would make Rants happy and we would be on the very Eastern edge with all the warm air advection and little moisture. The UKIE, GFS, JMA have the storm just east, up or west of the Appalachians with a little blossoming after it hits the Delmarva. My personal opinion reading the opinions of mets on two boards and looking at the models themselves is more the latter group of models with maybe the surface low tracking just west the Appalachians up into Buffalo and then sitting there for a day or two. My wild and unscientific guess, I am going weenie 4-6" through Tuesday PM after mix-ish day Sunday. 4-6" for Buffalo is a good call.. Good Job Guy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 4-6" for Buffalo is a good call.. Good Job Guy! No for us! My shamefully unscientific study of the squirrels in my yard shows increased nut gathering activity and hurried pace of preparation. Isn't that the way the Indians used to guess the weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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