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Pittsburgh, PA Thread

RitualOfTheTrout

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north pgh

north pgh

Posted
Posted

NWS Pit pretty much what we are expecting.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

323 PM EST WED DEC 8 2010

.SYNOPSIS...

-- Changed Discussion --LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS

WINDS DIMINISH AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION THROUGH

THURSDAY. A FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF

SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE SATURDAY. STRONG LOW

PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY AND SNOWY AND

MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --BANDS STILL MOVING OFF LAKE ERIE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY SHIFT TOWARD

A MORE WEST-EAST SETUP AND AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD IN LESS

COVERAGE EXPECTED AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT

ANOTHER INCH ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND IN THE

HIGHER RIDGES TO THE EAST. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY SURFACE RIDGE

WILL FINALLY TURN FLOW ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE TO END

THE ACTIVITY. RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL UNTIL LATER THURSDAY NIGHT

WHEN CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN

WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF CLIPPER WILL KEEP LOWS FROM FALLING OFF

MUCH.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --FRONT WITH CLIPPER WILL SWING ACROSS REGION FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY

WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG I-80.

PARENT SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL NORTH ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND WITH

LIMITED MOISTURE NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. WITH

BULK OF PRECIP IN THE MORNING SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW BUT AREAS

TOWARD MASON DIXON COULD SEE A MIX. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO

NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY AND A DRY AND SEASONABLE DAY SATURDAY IN

BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM

WILL AFFECT THE REGION WITH TIMING...STRENGTH AND TRACK ALL STILL

IN DOUBT. A COMPROMISE SOLUTION USING HPC PROGS AND THE GEM GIVES

A SOLUTION FOR A MIX OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT

AND CONTINUING SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO NEAR KPIT SUNDAY

AFTERNOON. COLD AIR WRAPS BACK IN QUICKLY CHANGING PRECIP TO ALL

SNOW BY LATE DAY. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN ECMWF AND GFS WITH

EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM SO LIKELY MANY CHANGES TO FORECAST AS

EVENT GETS CLOSER. AS OF NOW EASTERN OHIO COUNTIES AND I-80 REGION

HAS BEST PROBABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SATURDAY NIGHT

AND SUNDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE INTO THE REGION WITH NORTH/NORTHWEST

FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL LIKELY SET UP

ANOTHER LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE EVENT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

LIKELY POPS ARE FORECAST ESPECIALLY IN THE LAKE EFFECT AND UPLAND

AREAS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE BRISK...YIELDING POTENTIAL FOR SUB ZERO

WIND CHILLS AREA WIDE ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

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northpittweather

northpittweather

Posted
Posted

You're kidding right?

There is nothing that shows that...even the far south GFS shows maybe 4-8 at best....

Here is what is going to happen.

1. The storm is going to phase faster, become much stonger, and cut up into the lakes and give us rain.

2. It will be a weaker storm, and not phase with the PV until much later, and we will get lgt to mod snow...per the GFS...could be a nice storm, but no way will it be a 10 inch plus unless something changes drastically and the apps runner solution comes back.

Nah, You can't be really sure what's going to happen, the storm is still several days out, but in all seriousness, this storm has characteristics from last years blizzard, remember everybody was like 3-6 inches of snow is likely, we got 2 feet of snow, i am not saying that's going to happen, but it's possible (I think there will be a huge storm for all of western pa and eastern ohio, mixing out east towards harrisburg and those areas

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Paweatherguy1

Paweatherguy1

Posted
Posted

Nah, You can't be really sure what's going to happen, the storm is still several days out, but in all seriousness, this storm has characteristics from last years blizzard, remember everybody was like 3-6 inches of snow is likely, we got 2 feet of snow, i am not saying that's going to happen, but it's possible (I think there will be a huge storm for all of western pa and eastern ohio, mixing out east towards harrisburg and those areas

But there was support for that last year, with runs 3 or 4 days before showing close to two inches of QPF...sure, it backed off a bit, but then it trended north at the end.

There is no support anywhere for that type of storm here...

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northpittweather

northpittweather

Posted
Posted

But there was support for that last year, with runs 3 or 4 days before showing close to two inches of QPF...sure, it backed off a bit, but then it trended north at the end.

There is no support anywhere for that type of storm here...

We had that with this storm already coming up, there was 1.5 inches or so QPF over us, 2 days ago on the GFS Runs

( the runs keep looking better for us, much better than yesterday)

i can see 12 or more inches of snow from this

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north pgh

north pgh

Posted
Posted

From NOAA Climate Prediction Hazards Forecasts, we got High Winds/Heavy Snow Area for Pittsburgh area :snowman:

post-1757-0-23952100-1291844006.gif

We are in the high wind area only.

The heavy snows are for lake effect which is to our northwest and the other heavy snow is for Michigan, Illinois and Indiana area.

This could change but right now we are on the eastern side of all the heavy snow area.

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psnnstater77

psnnstater77

Posted
Posted

18z run is off for sure, has 3 lows running up the coast, that is not what's going to happen

Looks like this will go down to the wire, but personally based on what i am thinking, the storm will go south of us, and bomb out, with 8-16 inch snowfall for us

All indications are for a mix.. You cant dismiss a model cause it doesn't show what you want.

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KPITblizz

KPITblizz

Posted
Posted

All indications are for a mix.. You cant dismiss a model cause it doesn't show what you want.

Beg to differ. Heres some indications that AREN"T for a mix..

gfs_pcp_084s.gif

nam_pcp_084s.gifNam extrapolated would most likely be good.

12zukmet500mbHGHTNA120.gif

12znogaps850mbTSLPp12108.gif

Not to mention GFS ensembles.

EDIT: Also GGEM is trending east. Closer to GFS than Euro.

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Pittsburgh Rants

Pittsburgh Rants

Posted
Posted

As of right now, this sums things up well..

A COMPROMISE SOLUTION USING HPC PROGS AND THE GEM GIVES

A SOLUTION FOR A MIX OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT

AND CONTINUING SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO NEAR KPIT SUNDAY

AFTERNOON. COLD AIR WRAPS BACK IN QUICKLY CHANGING PRECIP TO ALL

SNOW BY LATE DAY. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN ECMWF AND GFS WITH

EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM SO LIKELY MANY CHANGES TO FORECAST AS

EVENT GETS CLOSER. AS OF NOW EASTERN OHIO COUNTIES AND I-80 REGION

HAS BEST PROBABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SATURDAY NIGHT

AND SUNDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE INTO THE REGION WITH NORTH/NORTHWEST

FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL LIKELY SET UP

ANOTHER LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE EVENT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

LIKELY POPS ARE FORECAST ESPECIALLY IN THE LAKE EFFECT AND UPLAND

AREAS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

Please lets not compare this to last Feb, its not even close and not its not happening.. In fact this looks to be a marginal

snow event as of right now.

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KPITblizz

KPITblizz

Posted
Posted

Again, like he said, you are using 4 models that show snow.. Why is NWS continue to mention mix?

Hmm. I mean I'd take the 4 models that show snow, over the 1 model that doesn't. Also, the model that doesn't trended towards the others at 0z before going back today. Another thing, that same model showed quite the storm last week that should have blanketed the mid atlantic.. that same storm is giving showers to Louisiana.

Why is the NWS mentioning mix? Staying cautios with the amount of uncertainity remaining with the storm. Better for them to state potentials, as opposed to inducing panic this early. What are you're reasons why it is going to mix?

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weatherman5416

weatherman5416

Posted
Posted

Again, like he said, you are using 4 models that show snow.. Why is NWS continue to mention mix?

My forecast in Beaver County has all snow on Sunday 80% chance and 60% of snow likely on Sunday Night. The only indications of a mix in the NWS forecast for me on our Saturday Night with an 80% chance of Rain/Snow. Let me clarify though that I do not believe it is going to stay all snow on Sunday, just wanted to mention what the NWS forecast says.

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Pittsburgh Rants

Pittsburgh Rants

Posted
Posted

My forecast in Beaver County has all snow on Sunday 80% chance and 60% of snow likely on Sunday Night. The only indications of a mix in the NWS forecast for me on our Saturday Night with an 80% chance of Rain/Snow. Let me clarify though that I do not believe it is going to stay all snow on Sunday, just wanted to mention what the NWS forecast says.

The further North you go, the less mix factor will play in.. And This could change..

Read the NWS Discussion, its breaks it down pretty nicely with a quick change over Sunday Afternoon

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Pittsburgh Rants

Pittsburgh Rants

Posted
Posted

Hmm. I mean I'd take the 4 models that show snow, over the 1 model that doesn't. Also, the model that doesn't trended towards the others at 0z before going back today. Another thing, that same model showed quite the storm last week that should have blanketed the mid atlantic.. that same storm is giving showers to Louisiana.

Why is the NWS mentioning mix? Staying cautios with the amount of uncertainity remaining with the storm. Better for them to state potentials, as opposed to inducing panic this early. What are you're reasons why it is going to mix?

Look where the Low is tracking, like I said read the discussion.. It breaks it down nicely.

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KPITblizz

KPITblizz

Posted
Posted

Look where the Low is tracking, like I said read the discussion.. It breaks it down nicely.

Read the discussion. And like I said, they are playing this cautiously. Looking at the models I posted, i see nothing wrong with the track. A low east of the apps with brutal air wrapping in seems fine with me. Like I asked, I'm just curious about your reasoning.

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Pittsburgh Rants

Pittsburgh Rants

Posted
Posted

Read the discussion. And like I said, they are playing this cautiously. Looking at the models I posted, i see nothing wrong with the track. A low east of the apps with brutal air wrapping in seems fine with me. Like I asked, I'm just curious about your reasoning.

I gave you my reasoning.. Low is going to be more west.. NWS Pinpoint this well.

And you gave 4 models that shows all snow, the last few models have been back and forths..

So NWS is just playing it cautious? It has nothing to do with Mets reading maps and making a scienetific decision?:whistle:

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ChalkHillSnowNut

ChalkHillSnowNut

Posted
Posted

YES!!!

DeNardo and Kudzma were awesome!....I just have on channel 2 news during dinner...I don't know why given Jeff's usually boring forecasts...but was surprised when he mentioned possibilities...but nothing can be too exciting until about 2 days before or with this one, maybe even a day before the event....we'll see I guess!

You watch accuweather? LOL

Storms like these is where I miss Murgo, Kuzdma, and DeNardo..

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Pittsburgh Rants

Pittsburgh Rants

Posted
Posted

YES!!!

DeNardo and Kudzma were awesome!....I just have on channel 2 news during dinner...I don't know why given Jeff's usually boring forecasts...but was surprised when he mentioned possibilities...but nothing can be too exciting until about 2 days before or with this one, maybe even a day before the event....we'll see I guess!

Murgo is by far the best in the Western/Central Area when it comes to storms.. But for most of this thread he would be different cause Mountains are usually hammered.

Johnstown had a good guy too

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ChalkHillSnowNut

ChalkHillSnowNut

Posted
Posted

Yea my buddy interned with Denardo and worked with Murgo for several years...I met him as well. They're all nice guys, but which one usually nailed the storms?...you're sayin Murgo?...I really didn't see his casts much living in pittsburgh, but Denardo was usually pretty good...Kudzma really rallied for snow from what I can remember....man that was sooo long ago!! haha

Murgo is by far the best in the Western/Central Area when it comes to storms.. But for most of this thread he would be different cause Mountains are usually hammered.

Johnstown had a good guy too

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blackngoldrules

blackngoldrules

Posted
Posted
<br />Yea my buddy interned with Denardo and worked with Murgo for several years...I met him as well. They're all nice guys, but which one usually nailed the storms?...you're sayin Murgo?...I really didn't see his casts much living in pittsburgh, but Denardo was usually pretty good...Kudzma really rallied for snow from what I can remember....man that was sooo long ago!! haha

Hey, welcome aboard neighbor! Yeah, Kudzma used to actually make me laugh when comparing his forecasts to the other local mets. If the other 2 stations were saying 1-3, you can bet Bob was saying 3-6! Not always, but a lot of the time. Doesn't he live in Bethel Park?

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