Pittsburgh, PA Thread

[blackngoldrules]

It looks like the 0Z is back to the 12Z with the low moving right over Pittsburgh again.

Rain Sunday then snow showers on the back end.

The back and forth continues.

I feel like this is what we will end up with.

The ups and downs of model watching.

Ugh!

Aren't the 6z and 18z considered the "off hour runs" of the GFS? I always thought the 0z and 12z are the runs that ingest the most information and are to be taken the most seriously? Just asking, not sure about that.

[northpittweather]

It looks like the 0Z is back to the 12Z with the low moving right over Pittsburgh again.

Rain Sunday then snow showers on the back end.

The back and forth continues.

I feel like this is what we will end up with.

The ups and downs of model watching.

Ugh!

Uh, there are like 15 more or so model runs, you can't go by one model run, i still think that we are going to get a big one and not our mix slop storm, other models like the EURO, UK, and others are showing the east coast track

[lwg8tr0514]

Uh, there are like 15 more or so model runs, you can't go by one model run, i still think that we are going to get a big one and not our mix slop storm, other models like the EURO, UK, and others are showing the east coast track

It does appear the GFS as the outlier and last Winter the GFS was useless, our big whopper in February the GFS had us at 1" of QPF and the local TV talking heads saying "8" o snow, nothing to see here" three days out when I got over 30" when it finally happened. If we saw some kind of consesus on most of the models I would throw in the towel, and we may very well see that, but for right now the probablility of one model being correct 4+ days out is pretty slim. I have been reading on StormVista and some of the models coming more East, so stay tuned.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Aren't the 6z and 18z considered the "off hour runs" of the GFS? I always thought the 0z and 12z are the runs that ingest the most information and are to be taken the most seriously? Just asking, not sure about that.

Yes you are correct, the 12z and 00z models both get all new data while the 06z and 18z do not. I am not 100% sure but I think the 06z and 18z initialize with their prospective current surface soundings but the upper air data is not current. I do not know if they just use the old data, or if they use projected upper air data based on the older feeds. Perhaps someone with a bit more knowledge could clarify.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Yes, and after this Sunday when the storm comes through we will most likely have 3 or 4 more days of this lake effect activity again.

Yes, no matter what happens with this storm we should have a similar week next week in terms of LES (albeit with colder temps). One thing about LES is at least it keeps snow flakes flying and the chance for a surprise dump if you get under a heavy band. That is more than a lot of folks have to look forward to when it would otherwise just be dry and cold.

I do think this storm will have slop in it. Looking to see maybe start off as snow changing to rain then back to snow. With these setups the questions of how strong the Primary becomes, how far north it makes it before a transfer. Of course the whole setup could change at this point between now and then with no transfer or maybe it does the rare track of going up the spine or just east of the spine.

[Digger]

and the chance for a surprise dump if you get under a heavy band.

I hate surprises...

[lwg8tr0514]

I hate surprises...

I got gypped down here in Washington County, we got 6 days of flurries which kept a dusting of snow everywhere. My snow shovel remains dusty and spider web covered.

[Pittsburgh Rants]

Yes, no matter what happens with this storm we should have a similar week next week in terms of LES (albeit with colder temps). One thing about LES is at least it keeps snow flakes flying and the chance for a surprise dump if you get under a heavy band. That is more than a lot of folks have to look forward to when it would otherwise just be dry and cold.

I do think this storm will have slop in it. Looking to see maybe start off as snow changing to rain then back to snow. With these setups the questions of how strong the Primary becomes, how far north it makes it before a transfer. Of course the whole setup could change at this point between now and then with no transfer or maybe it does the rare track of going up the spine or just east of the spine.

I don't know about 3-4 days.. Northern counties and moutains could see snow into Wednesday of next week, but I think overall winds start to turn back on Tuesday.

One thing about LES, City area 90% of the time gets almost nothing, unless you live north of the pike and east of 66/422 you really get nothing at all.

[ChalkHillSnowNut]

Yea Henry's video of the "big daddy" isn't playing for me....it starts out but then stops...anyone else able to watch it?

[RitualOfTheTrout]

I hate surprises...

I can imagine that someone in the snow removal / salting business would hate LES in terms of trying to figure out which customers need your service and which don't and how conditions can change rapidly.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

I don't know about 3-4 days.. Northern counties and moutains could see snow into Wednesday of next week, but I think overall winds start to turn back on Tuesday.

One thing about LES, City area 90% of the time gets almost nothing, unless you live north of the pike and east of 66/422 you really get nothing at all.

Rants, good to see you made it over. I may have been off in the duration of the possible LES event next week so I will agree with you there.

I only got about 1 inch from this LES at my place (Tarentum / Lower Burrell / New Kensington Area), but I drove down for the Pens game Monday and was surprised that the city seemed to have almost nothing on the ground at the time.

[north pgh]

Hey guys. Tell me if I'm wrong or not but the 12Z now looks like it is going south of us and then going up the coast?

Brief period of rain before snow?

This storm has been all over the place.

First it was south, then it looked like it would cut the lakes to our west. Now back to our south.

Much more time for changes to the models but I think this is really getting interesting.

[Pittsburgh Rants]

Yeah, boo on the South Track.. At this point I think its safe to say, we will see rain, then snow at some point.. Rain should keep the snow totals down.

[lwg8tr0514]

Looks like we are going to be in good shape for snow lovers for the storm this Weekend into early next week. If the models hold we look to be a good spot for a majority of snow type precip. Maybe a short spat of rain, freezing rain and then a quick switch over. .50 to .75" or so of QPF nice. My early guess is 4-6" for Pitt more in the highlands. Not bad for Mid December.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Looks like we are going to be in good shape for snow lovers for the storm this Weekend into early next week. If the models hold we look to be a good spot for a majority of snow type precip. Maybe a short spat of rain, freezing rain and then a quick switch over. .50 to .75" or so of QPF nice. My early guess is 4-6" for Pitt more in the highlands. Not bad for Mid December.

Yes, the 12z OP run does look like mainly snow for our area but until we see some consistency this to me is just another one of the possible solutions. I wouldn't complain if it verified though.

[Thunderhead]

Indeed, 12z GFS has trended southward from 0z. The 700 mb low went south with the sfc pres. 1000-500 mb 540 dm thickness line trended south. Would probably give a moderate snowfall to PIT before LES began.

12z GGEM trended eastward but not as much as the GFS did. That solution would likely yield snow beginning overnight Saturday night changing to sleet/zr then to some rain Sunday afternoon.

Am waiting to see what the 12z ECMWF does. The 0z run would still pose problems w/ p-type as it has a strong 850 mb low passing N of PIT.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Indeed, 12z GFS has trended southward from 0z. The 700 mb low went south with the sfc pres. 1000-500 mb 540 dm thickness line trended south. Would probably give a moderate snowfall to PIT before LES began.

12z GGEM trended eastward but not as much as the GFS did. That solution would likely yield snow beginning overnight Saturday night changing to sleet/zr then to some rain Sunday afternoon.

Am waiting to see what the 12z ECMWF does. The 0z run would still pose problems w/ p-type as it has a strong 850 mb low passing N of PIT.

Well I don't have access to any maps but just going off what they are saying in the thread its a no go for us on the ECMWF. Storm would be mainly rain with some wrap around followed by some LES.

[Pittsburgh Rants]

Guys, we don't want any mixing at all. Remember when mixing our area for some reason always holds warmer longer then projected.

[north pgh]

I think we pretty much know the differences in the models currently but here is what accuweather has to say on the matter.

http://www.accuweather.com/video/655578741001/a-big-bad-weekend-storm???.asp

[Thunderhead]

Well I don't have access to any maps but just going off what they are saying in the thread its a no go for us on the ECMWF. Storm would be mainly rain with some wrap around followed by some LES.

Correct. 12z ECMWF still west. Rain on Sunday to snow showers Monday-Wednesday behind a strong cold front. 500 mb low takes a while to exit the region. Quite cold.

Hate to say it, but this pattern may become routine this winter. It's a La Nina...not an El Nino, like we had last winter. I'm thinking of an 07-08 styled winter. At least W PA can cash in on slightly more significant LES events than places E of the Apps... what does the I-95 corridor get out of a pattern like this? Cold and dry, then warm and wet, then back to cold and dry.

[Pittsburgh Rants]

Correct. 12z ECMWF still west. Rain on Sunday to snow showers Monday-Wednesday behind a strong cold front. 500 mb low takes a while to exit the region. Quite cold.

Hate to say it, but this pattern may become routine this winter. It's a La Nina...not an El Nino, like we had last winter. I'm thinking of an 07-08 styled winter. At least W PA can cash in on slightly more significant LES events than places E of the Apps... what does the I-95 corridor get out of a pattern like this? Cold and dry, then warm and wet, then back to cold and dry.

Again, people are counting on too much for LES System. The city doesn't sit pretty with LES. North neat I-180 and probably Ligonier East in the Mountains does.

Next LES Pittsburgh can get a half inch total. You can never say a certain total in this area with LES.

[lwg8tr0514]

Correct. 12z ECMWF still west. Rain on Sunday to snow showers Monday-Wednesday behind a strong cold front. 500 mb low takes a while to exit the region. Quite cold.

Hate to say it, but this pattern may become routine this winter. It's a La Nina...not an El Nino, like we had last winter. I'm thinking of an 07-08 styled winter. At least W PA can cash in on slightly more significant LES events than places E of the Apps... what does the I-95 corridor get out of a pattern like this? Cold and dry, then warm and wet, then back to cold and dry.

I listened to DT's show Sunday and he had some data based on sub-sea readings and Nina is either pulsing down or going away. I wonder what happens to the weather when you have a basically a non Nina\Nino Pacific.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Correct. 12z ECMWF still west. Rain on Sunday to snow showers Monday-Wednesday behind a strong cold front. 500 mb low takes a while to exit the region. Quite cold.

Hate to say it, but this pattern may become routine this winter. It's a La Nina...not an El Nino, like we had last winter. I'm thinking of an 07-08 styled winter. At least W PA can cash in on slightly more significant LES events than places E of the Apps... what does the I-95 corridor get out of a pattern like this? Cold and dry, then warm and wet, then back to cold and dry.

Agreed, though our chances are slightly better than the coastal plain / I95 group for synoptic snows I think as systems running inland more often than not gives us a shot whereas coastal storms we miss out on.

[north pgh]

Again, people are counting on too much for LES System. The city doesn't sit pretty with LES. North neat I-180 and probably Ligonier East in the Mountains does.

Next LES Pittsburgh can get a half inch total. You can never say a certain total in this area with LES.

I agree with you about rarely getting a big snowfall with LES but what I and I think other people like about it is at least it is some snow. It's something to keep us busy. Some snow in the air and occasionally getting a snow band or a quick whiteout. It beats being sunny and cold like cities away from the lakes get after a strong front.

Look at these snowfall totals up in Northwest Pa.

So close but yet so far.....

And they may go through it again on Monday.

PENNSYLVANIA

...CRAWFORD COUNTY...

BLOOMING VALLEY 4NE 32.0 832 AM 12/8

CROSSINGVILLE 2NE 26.0 647 AM 12/8

MEADVILLE 26.0 756 AM 12/8

CANADOHTA LAKE 25.0 840 AM 12/8

MEADVILLE 5W 20.0 800 AM 12/8

TITUSVILLE 20.0 857 AM 12/8

CONNEAUTVILLE 6SW 18.0 812 AM 12/8

...ERIE COUNTY...

CORRY 38.0 850 AM 12/8 1"/HR SNOWFALL RATE

AMITY TWP 36.0 845 AM 12/8

ERIE AIRPORT 3.0 700 AM 12/8

MILLCREEK TWP. 3.0 800 AM 12/8

$$

[blackngoldrules]

18z NAM is rolling right now. I guess we're starting to get close enough now that maybe the NAM can be added to the list to give us another perspective of the weekend storm.

Sent from my T-Mobile G1 using Tapatalk

[northpittweather]

The Euro is out there, all the other models have a big snowstorm for us

My first guess i 8 to 16 inches of snow across, less south because mixing is an issue near Morgantown

[Paweatherguy1]

Again, people are counting on too much for LES System. The city doesn't sit pretty with LES. North neat I-180 and probably Ligonier East in the Mountains does.

Next LES Pittsburgh can get a half inch total. You can never say a certain total in this area with LES.

No one is counting on the LES, IMO...I just think that if you get 2 or 3 inches of snow in Pittsburgh with a LES event, people are generally happy...I know that was pretty normal across the northern burbs with this last event.

[north pgh]

The Euro is out there, all the other models have a big snowstorm for us

My first guess i 8 to 16 inches of snow across, less south because mixing is an issue near Morgantown

Wow. Is this a weenie guess or do you really think we will get that much? Before last year we had nothing over 8 inches for about 7 years. I would be happy with 2-4 or 3-6.

[Paweatherguy1]

The Euro is out there, all the other models have a big snowstorm for us

My first guess i 8 to 16 inches of snow across, less south because mixing is an issue near Morgantown

You're kidding right?

There is nothing that shows that...even the far south GFS shows maybe 4-8 at best....

Here is what is going to happen.

1. The storm is going to phase faster, become much stonger, and cut up into the lakes and give us rain.

2. It will be a weaker storm, and not phase with the PV until much later, and we will get lgt to mod snow...per the GFS...could be a nice storm, but no way will it be a 10 inch plus unless something changes drastically and the apps runner solution comes back.

[Paweatherguy1]

Wow. Is this a weenie guess or do you really think we will get that much? Before last year we had nothing over 8 inches for about 7 years. I would be happy with 2-4 or 3-6.

I would imagine, based on the comment earlier about schools being out, that he is just a kid..I appreciate the enthusiasm, and we would all love to see it, but it isn't reasonable at this point.